Options Trading Blog
Options Trading Tips and Strategies
After the bell, we will see earnings reports from IBM, Intel (INTC), CSX, and Yahoo! (YHOO). Following them tomorrow morning are Abbott Labs (ABT), Bank of NY (BK), BlackRock (BLK), Haliburton (HAL), and PNC.
Crude Oil futures gained sharply ahead of inventory numbers tomorrow afternon. The price of a barrel rose 1.3% to $104.25. Natural Gas futures, which will see its own inventory numbers on Thursday, fell to its lowest level at $1.9530. Traders continue to point to a $1.55 level as a break-even point for producers, saying that until you see serious production cuts, prices could continue to tumble.
The US$ fell marginally in Tuesday trade, despite the renewed risk appetite. JPY saw the brunt of the losses, falling 0.5% against the dollar. The 30-year bond fell 0.3%, while the 10-year note dropped 0.2%.
Crude Oil is also sharply higher, up 1.4%, while its counterpart in the oil patch – Natural Gas – is down 2.5% to $1.966. Natural Gas is by far the largest losing of the main futures markets, with the next closest – coffee – down just 0.6%.
After-the-bell earnings are not yet on the radar, but may become towards the end of the trading day. IBM, Intel (INTC), and Yahoo! (YHOO) are the major plays there. IBM has beat expectations by an average of 1.8% over the past four trailing quarters. So, we should expect another strong number there. We’ll really be looking at YHOO, with the potential to move the most. The stock is in a beaten up, built up pattern that could see good volatility. Should be fun.
Break-even: I breakeven on this trade if CEDC closes at $4 by April 20, 2012 and at $3.65 by May 18, 2012.
Unprofitable: I lose money on this trade if CEDC closes under $4 by April 20, 2012 and above $3.65 by May 18, 2012. The most I can lose on this trade is the Price of the Spread, $.35.
Reason I Like This Trade: I like selling front month premium and buying back month premium with only a few days to go until expiration. In this strategy, I will make money as long as CEDC does not rip higher between now and Friday, because the April options will decay faster than the May options.
UPDATED 4.23.2012 On Friday, I announced in the LIVE trading room that I sold my May 4 Puts for $.60 and the April Puts expired worthless, so I turned $.35 into $.60 for another HUGE winner at KOTM.
In economic data, housing starts fell to a 5-month low in March – showing annualized starts of 654,000, compared with expectations of 705,000. At the same time, the report showed higher demand for building permits, which is at the highest level since September 2008. Most of this growth is seen in multi-family units. Later this morning, Industrial Production will be released at 9 a.m. ET.
In futures markets, it looks to be a good day to be long risk. S&P 500 and DJIA front-month futures gained 0.6% ahead of the official market open. Crude Oil is also higher on the session, gaining 1%, while Natural Gas continues to experience selling at a $2-handle. Prices today are down 1.3% to $1.989. Currency markets are little changed overnight – EUR/USD is trading at 1.3134, USD/JPY at 80.55, and GBP/USD at 1.5940.
After the bell, IBM, Intel (INTC), and Yahoo (YHOO) report earnings. Keep an eye on those stocks during the trading day.
– Spirit Airlines (SAVE) price target to $27 from $21: Dahlman Rose
– M&T Bank (MTB) price target to $90 from $87: FBR Capital
– Groupon (GRPN) price target to $11 from $14: Ascendiant Capital Markets