Halftime Report for 2.27.2012

Therefore, the EUR/USD sold off in the Europe trading session. Currently, the EUR/USD is trading higher at the $1.34 level. In my opinion, only a margin hike or Central Bank Action will slow down this Brent/Crude Train. Keep an eye out for the French Elections coming in early April 2012. Volatility remains high in the currency and energy markets. 10 YR Treasury is at $1.91 as the shift from bonds to risk assets continue.

Unusual Option Activity:

· We have seen huge Call buying in OTM RIG Calls. Also, when AAPL was down $6 this morning we observed aggressive May $540 Call buyers .
· When DNDN was trading at $13.52, someone sold 3,900 Mar 15 Calls for $.56. DNDN is currently trading at 12$,
· A Customer bought 2,000 LPX April 8 Calls for $.6. LPX stock popped and the calls are currently worth $.70.

By: Greg Zimny

Movers and Shakers (LNG) Up $1.66 (12%) to $15.70 2.27.2012

•Price Target: 50 DMA- $11.16 200 DMA $9.22. In October 2011, LNG hit a low of $4 . Today, LNG hit a fresh 52 wk high of $15.7 LNG has been on a rage this year. On January 1st, 2012 LNG was trading in the low $9’s

MAIN QUESTIONS REGARDING FUTURE OF LNG: How will they restructure their current debt?? This has to be done ahead of financing for the liquefaction project?
Will they sell even more shares of stock? The number of outstanding shares has increased from 51.0m in 2009 to 129.6m today. This doesn’t impact their net loss, but it makes the loss per share look smaller since a larger number of shareholders are dividing up the losses.
Also, Blackstone Group makes a huge $2B bet on LNG. Does this mean they have financing for LNG plant? would be HUGE. Proceeds will be used toward developing the liquefaction project at Sabine Pass. LNG expects debt financing to occur Q1 2012.

How will they restructure their current debt ahead of financing for the liquefaction project? This will impact their interest expenses.
– Will they sell even more shares of stock? The number of outstanding shares has increased from 51.0m in 2009 to 129.6m today. This doesn’t impact their net loss, but it makes the loss per share look smaller since a larger number of shareholders are dividing up the losses.

Morning Rage 2.27.2012

PCLN,CTB, and BRK.A report earnings today.
PCLN: Quarterly Earnings and Estimates (QE4) of $5.02. Quarterly Earnings and Revenue Estimates of $968 million. In my estimation, Priceline will beat analyst expectations for EPS and Revenue, but will probably lower its guidance. Furthermore, not one insider bought new shares in PCLN this year. That speaks volumes!

CTB: Quarterly Earnings and Estimates (QE4) of $.39 and Quarterly Revenue (QE4) of $1billion. In my opinion, the quarter will be a disappointment mainly due to weather, and consumers lack of replacement tire purchase. Also, announcements regarding labor disputes are expected during the CC.
By: Greg Zimny

KOTM Trades of the Week Master Archive 4.5.2012

Welcome to the KOTM Trades of the Week Newsletter. We are always striving to make this the best. Please feel free to email us with suggestions or questions. [email protected]



3.29.2012 ADOBEPDF  KOTM Trade of The Week STX 3.29.2012.pdf  KOTM Trade of The Week STX Updated 4.2.2012.pdf
3.27.2012 ADOBEPDF  KOTM Trade of The Week P 3272012.pdf  KOTM TRADE OF THE WEEK P Updated 4.2.2012.pdf
3.22.2012 ADOBEPDFKOTM TRADE OF THE WEEK MAPP 3.22.2012.pdf  KOTM TRADE OF THE WEEK MAPP Updated 4.2.2012.pdf
3.20.2012 ADOBEPDFKOTM TRADE OF THE WEEK RGP 3.20.2012.pdf   KOTM TRADE OF THE WEEK RGP 4.2.2012.pdf
3.16.2012 ADOBEPDFSPPITradeoftheWeek.pdf  KOTM TRAD
E OF THE WEEK SPPI Updated 4.2.2012 .pdf
3.15.2012
ADOBEPDF
TKTradeoftheWeek.pdf
 KOTM TRADE OF THE WEEK TK Updated 4.2.2012.pdf
3.13.2012 ADOBEPDFCLNEUPDATE3.13.2012.pdf KOTM TRADE OF THE WEEK CLNE Updated 3.22.2012.pdf
3.13.2012 ADOBEPDFKV.A_UPDATE3.13.2012.pdf  KOTM TRADE OF THE WEEK KV.A Updated 4.2.2012.pdf
3.6.2012 ADOBEPDF KOTM TRADE OF THE WEEK PANDORA 3.6.2012.pdf  P_UPDATE3.13.2012.pdf
3.5.2012 ADOBEPDFKOTM TRADE OF THE WEEK CLNE 3.5.2012.pdf

 CLNE TRADE OF THE WEEK UPDATE 3.8.2012.pdf

3.2.2012 ADOBEPDFKOTM TRADE OF THE WEEK KEG 3.2.2012.pdf KOTM TRADE OF THE WEEK KEG Updated 4.2.2012 .pdf
3.1.2012 ADOBEPDF< strong>KOTM TRADE OF THE WEEK FL 3.1.2012.pdf  KOTM TRADE OF THE WEEK FL Updated 4.2.2012.pdf
2.29.2012 ADOBEPDF KOTM TRADE OF THE WEEK PAAS 2.29.2012.pdf          KOTM TRADE OF THE WEEK PASS UPDATE 4.2.2012.pdf








        

Trade of the Day (IRM) 2.24.2012


Unprofitable:
 This trade is unprofitable if IRM Closes under $34.05 by July 20, 2012.  The most I can lose on this trade is the amount I paid for these Calls, $1.55.

Reason I like this Trade: There are unusual options activity orders, then I saw someone bought 1000 IRM July 32.5 Calls, they paid $1.55.  This was not a HUGE order, but it 30 times usual volume and the stock just had earnings, so volatility is very low.  The open interest on this strike was 1107 so it was an opening trade that is important as well.   I will be looking to piece of it it, just like I took profits in SEE, SYY, and SVU.  The chart looks strong and could test $32 very soon.  (See Disclaimer)

UPDATE 2.27.2012 With the stock looking strong on Friday, I sold 20% of my position for $1.75 and I still have an 80% position on thinking there is plenty of more room to the upside. 

UPDATE 2.28.2012 These Calls are currently worth $1.65, but I will leave this trade on for more upside.

UPDATE 2.29.2012 I am glad I sold 20% of my position, because IRM is looking a little bit weaker than expected.  I might look to Punt this trade on an upward move higher.

UPDATE 3.1.2012 I will be looking to take this trade off with a POP higher in stock.  These Calls are currently worth $1.45.

UPDATE 3.2.2012 This Calls are worth $1.35, but since I have 5 more months for this trade, I will leave it on for more upside, but glad I took partial profits.

UPDATE 3.5.2012 IRM is selling off again today, showing me that I have to take profits quicker than I have in the past.  Trading is trial and error, I think I need to make more quick profits and move on.

UPDATE 3.6.2012 I talked about the fact that I need to move a little faster on my trades, so I should have exited this one a little faster.  At least, I have until July until this trade can be profitable.

UPDATE 3.9.2012 This is interesting, because the other day Paper bought another 7,000 of these Calls for $1.00.  I sold a partial part of my position for $1.15 and I am comfortable taking this trade off for a scratch or small loser.

UPDATE 3.15.2012 These Calls are currently worth $1, but since they are 5 months away, I will leave them on

UPDATE 3.22.2012 These Calls are worth $.75 and I am happy that this trade is woring against me, I am just thankful that I took some profits while I could.

UPDATE 4.9.2012 These Calls are still worth $.75 and I will leave this trade on as anything can happen between now and July.