Cam at the Close 2.27.12

Natural gas plummeted today and closed down 4% to 2.4460. In Warren Buffett’s quarterly letter he explained how his $2 billion bond investment in Energy Future Holdings might lose all of its value if Natural Gas continues to stay depressed. When Uncle Buffett says jump, the market says how high. ATP Oil & Gas (ATPG) rallied over 18% to $8.42 after the company said drilling in Mississippi went better than expected. Dendreon (DNDN), the once lucrative Seattle biotech plunged over 20% to $11.81 after its main prostate drug “Provenge” had weak sales. This is the same drug that insurers did not want to accept when the company plummeted 40% in one day back in July. So this really shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. DNDN can provide great trading opportunities, but trying to bottom pick this name can prove to be very dangerous. Fundamentals have not changed at all. Priceline (PCLN) is up over 5% in afterhours to $627. Stock has rallied 100 points since breaking out on 1/12/12. And of course, how could I forget about AAPL. Stock made new all time highs today at $528.50 and closed at $525.76. Markets can stay irrational much longer than you can remain solvent.

Written by Cameron Patrick
@Cam_Patrick

Poll Terms

Terms and Conditions – Rules for the Weekly Contest.

The person who predicts the closest price to the closing print of Apple Stock ($AAPL) on Thursday afternoon at 3:15 PM CST wins a Free iPod Shuffle, color of your choice. No entries will be accepted after after Tuesday 12 pm CST.  Contestants will not be disqualified for going over the price. This is for educational purposes only and has no ties to gambling whatsoever. We will announced winner on Friday by twitter and email. Please Follow @Keeneonmarket on Twitter. Only one Guess per week, per email.

Good luck and enjoy!


Halftime Report for 2.27.2012

Therefore, the EUR/USD sold off in the Europe trading session. Currently, the EUR/USD is trading higher at the $1.34 level. In my opinion, only a margin hike or Central Bank Action will slow down this Brent/Crude Train. Keep an eye out for the French Elections coming in early April 2012. Volatility remains high in the currency and energy markets. 10 YR Treasury is at $1.91 as the shift from bonds to risk assets continue.

Unusual Option Activity:

· We have seen huge Call buying in OTM RIG Calls. Also, when AAPL was down $6 this morning we observed aggressive May $540 Call buyers .
· When DNDN was trading at $13.52, someone sold 3,900 Mar 15 Calls for $.56. DNDN is currently trading at 12$,
· A Customer bought 2,000 LPX April 8 Calls for $.6. LPX stock popped and the calls are currently worth $.70.

By: Greg Zimny

Movers and Shakers (LNG) Up $1.66 (12%) to $15.70 2.27.2012

•Price Target: 50 DMA- $11.16 200 DMA $9.22. In October 2011, LNG hit a low of $4 . Today, LNG hit a fresh 52 wk high of $15.7 LNG has been on a rage this year. On January 1st, 2012 LNG was trading in the low $9’s

MAIN QUESTIONS REGARDING FUTURE OF LNG: How will they restructure their current debt?? This has to be done ahead of financing for the liquefaction project?
Will they sell even more shares of stock? The number of outstanding shares has increased from 51.0m in 2009 to 129.6m today. This doesn’t impact their net loss, but it makes the loss per share look smaller since a larger number of shareholders are dividing up the losses.
Also, Blackstone Group makes a huge $2B bet on LNG. Does this mean they have financing for LNG plant? would be HUGE. Proceeds will be used toward developing the liquefaction project at Sabine Pass. LNG expects debt financing to occur Q1 2012.

How will they restructure their current debt ahead of financing for the liquefaction project? This will impact their interest expenses.
– Will they sell even more shares of stock? The number of outstanding shares has increased from 51.0m in 2009 to 129.6m today. This doesn’t impact their net loss, but it makes the loss per share look smaller since a larger number of shareholders are dividing up the losses.

Morning Rage 2.27.2012

PCLN,CTB, and BRK.A report earnings today.
PCLN: Quarterly Earnings and Estimates (QE4) of $5.02. Quarterly Earnings and Revenue Estimates of $968 million. In my estimation, Priceline will beat analyst expectations for EPS and Revenue, but will probably lower its guidance. Furthermore, not one insider bought new shares in PCLN this year. That speaks volumes!

CTB: Quarterly Earnings and Estimates (QE4) of $.39 and Quarterly Revenue (QE4) of $1billion. In my opinion, the quarter will be a disappointment mainly due to weather, and consumers lack of replacement tire purchase. Also, announcements regarding labor disputes are expected during the CC.
By: Greg Zimny

KOTM Trades of the Week Master Archive 4.5.2012

Welcome to the KOTM Trades of the Week Newsletter. We are always striving to make this the best. Please feel free to email us with suggestions or questions. [email protected]



3.29.2012 ADOBEPDF  KOTM Trade of The Week STX 3.29.2012.pdf  KOTM Trade of The Week STX Updated 4.2.2012.pdf
3.27.2012 ADOBEPDF  KOTM Trade of The Week P 3272012.pdf  KOTM TRADE OF THE WEEK P Updated 4.2.2012.pdf
3.22.2012 ADOBEPDFKOTM TRADE OF THE WEEK MAPP 3.22.2012.pdf  KOTM TRADE OF THE WEEK MAPP Updated 4.2.2012.pdf
3.20.2012 ADOBEPDFKOTM TRADE OF THE WEEK RGP 3.20.2012.pdf   KOTM TRADE OF THE WEEK RGP 4.2.2012.pdf
3.16.2012 ADOBEPDFSPPITradeoftheWeek.pdf  KOTM TRAD
E OF THE WEEK SPPI Updated 4.2.2012 .pdf
3.15.2012
ADOBEPDF
TKTradeoftheWeek.pdf
 KOTM TRADE OF THE WEEK TK Updated 4.2.2012.pdf
3.13.2012 ADOBEPDFCLNEUPDATE3.13.2012.pdf KOTM TRADE OF THE WEEK CLNE Updated 3.22.2012.pdf
3.13.2012 ADOBEPDFKV.A_UPDATE3.13.2012.pdf  KOTM TRADE OF THE WEEK KV.A Updated 4.2.2012.pdf
3.6.2012 ADOBEPDF KOTM TRADE OF THE WEEK PANDORA 3.6.2012.pdf  P_UPDATE3.13.2012.pdf
3.5.2012 ADOBEPDFKOTM TRADE OF THE WEEK CLNE 3.5.2012.pdf

 CLNE TRADE OF THE WEEK UPDATE 3.8.2012.pdf

3.2.2012 ADOBEPDFKOTM TRADE OF THE WEEK KEG 3.2.2012.pdf KOTM TRADE OF THE WEEK KEG Updated 4.2.2012 .pdf
3.1.2012 ADOBEPDF< strong>KOTM TRADE OF THE WEEK FL 3.1.2012.pdf  KOTM TRADE OF THE WEEK FL Updated 4.2.2012.pdf
2.29.2012 ADOBEPDF KOTM TRADE OF THE WEEK PAAS 2.29.2012.pdf          KOTM TRADE OF THE WEEK PASS UPDATE 4.2.2012.pdf