Halftime Report for 2.28.2012

Apple makes another FRESH ALL-TIME HIGH AT $533.20. Ipad 3 is supposedly coming out next Wednesday March 7th in New York according to numerous reports.

The June CBOE VIX futures are trading at $26 and October CBOE VIX futures are at $29. Are the CBOE VIX future curves anticipating higher volatility to come?

Wednesday, keep an eye out for Bernanke’s (semi- annual testimony) speech. Also, Sweden and India reports Q4 GDP numbers. Finally, 2nd round of LTRO program in Europe to take place.

Wednesdays before the bell earnings:

Joy- Joy Global should meet or beat profits and sales expectations because it’s expanding into China’s International Mining Business. Analysts expect Joy to report $1.35 a share, up from $.96 a year ago. Revenue estimates are $1.15B for the quarter and year end revenue of $5.5B.

Liz Claiborne- Quarterly Earnings and estimates Q4E of $.10 Quarterly Revenue Q4E $477M. As of January 31st, their was a huge short float of 30%. Any good news regarding earnings could send the shorts running and the stock flying.

Movers and Shakers (APOL) down $5.40 (11%) to $45.02

Levels to Watch: 50DMA- $53.5, 100 DMA -$50.04, 200 DMA- $47.59.

Support 1-$50.72


(Chart Glance) Before Earnings, Apollo was resting on its primary support level at $52. Apol has beeb underperforming the broader market since the beginning of the year. Today, a huge bearish gap down into previouss 2011 support. $40 seems like near term support.

 Apollo shares plunge 14% as Apollo cuts its estimates for enrollment and operating profit. After board of directors gave positive numbers and forecasts for the last six months, insiders have been liquidating their positions and not adding to them.

By Greg Zimny

Movers and Shakers (PCLN) Up $41.50 (7%) to $634.99

Levels to watch: 50 DMA- $519.98, 100 DMA -$507.59, 200 DMA- $507.59.

 Support 1- $597

 Support 2- $574.2

 Support 3- $507.6

 Chart Glance: rallied out of a major consolidation zone. Clean high volume breakout to new highs. Price action displays clear demand for current levels. The stock is in a clear uptrend. The $550 level was a resistance zone that PCLN struggled to get through.

 After Earnings: PCLN CEO Jeffery Boyd stated, “PCLNs hotel bookings growth outperformed rivals.” Gross Margin has widened to 73% from 65.5%. International bookings were up %66 vs 55% forecast. PCLNs “name your own price” business model, was hurt by competitors “discount strategies.” Bookings predicted to slow down in quarters to come because of high gas prices cramping the consumer.

By Greg Zimny

Morning Rage 2.28.2012

I believe that the Credit Crisis is not yet over. The next Country to watch is Portugal. Portugal passed its third bailout review by the ECB this morning. S&P Kraemer s states, “if there is a country that will default, most likely it would be Portugal.”

Today after the close:

Azo- After bell earnings. Quarterly Earnings and Revenue: (Q2E) $4.01 Quarterly Revenue: (Q2E) $1.8B. Maybe some AZO news leaked after hours yesterday because AZO was trading around the $412 level.

Dpz- Domino’s Quarterly Earnings and Revenue: (QE4) $.49 Quarterly Revenue: $512M. Domino’s earnings have increased the last five consecutive years. In my opinion, this quarter will not be any different as the consumer is still spending money on eating out.

Kog- After the bell today. Quarterly Earnings and Revenue (QE4) $.09 Quarterly Revenue (QE4) $59.9M. History shows that KOG sells off after earnings. In my opinion, KOG will miss on earnings because of bad weather but give a positive forward guidance. Finally, we saw a customer buy 9,500 Mar 10 Puts. Either a customers huge bet to the downside or profit protection strategies.

By: Greg Zimny

Cam at the Close 2.27.12

Natural gas plummeted today and closed down 4% to 2.4460. In Warren Buffett’s quarterly letter he explained how his $2 billion bond investment in Energy Future Holdings might lose all of its value if Natural Gas continues to stay depressed. When Uncle Buffett says jump, the market says how high. ATP Oil & Gas (ATPG) rallied over 18% to $8.42 after the company said drilling in Mississippi went better than expected. Dendreon (DNDN), the once lucrative Seattle biotech plunged over 20% to $11.81 after its main prostate drug “Provenge” had weak sales. This is the same drug that insurers did not want to accept when the company plummeted 40% in one day back in July. So this really shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. DNDN can provide great trading opportunities, but trying to bottom pick this name can prove to be very dangerous. Fundamentals have not changed at all. Priceline (PCLN) is up over 5% in afterhours to $627. Stock has rallied 100 points since breaking out on 1/12/12. And of course, how could I forget about AAPL. Stock made new all time highs today at $528.50 and closed at $525.76. Markets can stay irrational much longer than you can remain solvent.

Written by Cameron Patrick

Poll Terms

Terms and Conditions – Rules for the Weekly Contest.

The person who predicts the closest price to the closing print of Apple Stock ($AAPL) on Thursday afternoon at 3:15 PM CST wins a Free iPod Shuffle, color of your choice. No entries will be accepted after after Tuesday 12 pm CST.  Contestants will not be disqualified for going over the price. This is for educational purposes only and has no ties to gambling whatsoever. We will announced winner on Friday by twitter and email. Please Follow @Keeneonmarket on Twitter. Only one Guess per week, per email.

Good luck and enjoy!

Halftime Report for 2.27.2012

Therefore, the EUR/USD sold off in the Europe trading session. Currently, the EUR/USD is trading higher at the $1.34 level. In my opinion, only a margin hike or Central Bank Action will slow down this Brent/Crude Train. Keep an eye out for the French Elections coming in early April 2012. Volatility remains high in the currency and energy markets. 10 YR Treasury is at $1.91 as the shift from bonds to risk assets continue.

Unusual Option Activity:

· We have seen huge Call buying in OTM RIG Calls. Also, when AAPL was down $6 this morning we observed aggressive May $540 Call buyers .
· When DNDN was trading at $13.52, someone sold 3,900 Mar 15 Calls for $.56. DNDN is currently trading at 12$,
· A Customer bought 2,000 LPX April 8 Calls for $.6. LPX stock popped and the calls are currently worth $.70.

By: Greg Zimny