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September Seasonal Commodity Statistics

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Copper prices start to fall as the construction season ends and typically remain on a downtrend through December. Silver on the other hand typically starts to rally in September as demand rises. Jewelers start to buy silver in preparation for the holiday season. Also, farmers in India are known to buy precious metals after their harvest which ends through september.

This year Soybeans and grains are very strong due to drought conditions across large parts of the United States. Historically, soybeans are in a weak period during September, reaching their seasonal lows in October when the harvest is over. Corn is typically in a downtrend, although a frost scare can cause price spikes.

Meat prices, such as live cattle tend to rise as the demand for cattle rises in the Fall. Typically people eat more meat as temperatures cool off. Government programs such as school lunches also increase demand as school is back in session.

In the past 12 years, the Euro has rallied 11 times from Labor Day through the end of the month. I am not sure if this year will go with the historical trend, however a Euro rally before the election could be expected. European uncertainties may become more apparent in the next few months during the U.S. election season.

David Cornes holds a degree in economics from the University of Montana.

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Halftime Report 8.24.2012

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Gold futures slightly down at 1,670 and Silver futures stable at 30.52. Crude up a half a point to 96.86.

Eli Lilly & Co. said to phase III clinical trials of Alzheimer’s drug showed statistically significant slowing of cognitive decline, gaining 2.5%.

Madison Square Garden Co. rise over 5% as fourth-quarter earnings beat analysts’ estimates.

Autodesk Inc.’s shares fell more than 15% because of lower second-quarter profits and a plan to restructure IT.

Salesforce.com initially fell 5% after posting second-quater losses. It is not trading up 0.5%.

Alex Kalish, masters degree in economics at Suffolk University

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Metals Update 8.24.2012

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South Africa accounts for 75% of the world’s platinum supply, with this standoff threatening 40% of the world’s production of the precious metal as workers are protesting wages.

As you can see from the chart below, the platinum/gold ratio is at a historical bottom. I would not hesitate to go long this ratio for various reasons, including platinum’s industrial applications. Platinum is a more rare metal than gold, and I think that it would be a quality investment as investors are flocking from fiat currency investments.
Platinum

Platinum Monthly


David Cornes holds a degree in economics from the University of Montana.

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Morning Rage 8.24.2012

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The Hang Seng lost 1.2% today, putting it down 1.3% this week, while the Shanghai composite lost 1%
putting it at a 3 year low. The resources sector was among the worst performers with China Shenhua,
China’s biggest coal producer, losing 3.5%. PetroChina stumbled back 0.6% after a 21% decline in Q2
net profits. CNOOC lost 1.1% today, 5% this week, due to week profit and a 40% slash in their dividend.
Banks were also week today with the Bank of China losing 1.3% after its weakest quarterly profit growth
in 3 years. China construction bank is also down 1.9% today.

The FTSEurofirst is beginning today flat as investors lock in profit to minimize risk and exposure. Mining
stocks were the biggest losing sector today as their sector is very economically sensitive. Eurasian
natural resources and Rio Tinto were among top fallers on the index losing 3.6 and 3.3% respectively.
Eurozone banks were also week with the sector losing 1.3% today. Today’s focus will be on the meeting
between the German Chancellor and Greek Prime Minister.

Global bank eyes are on Denmark’s after last month’s experiment of setting its main deposit rates for
banks at -0.2%, which the ECB said it may follow.

Apple is now 4th being knocked down from 2nd, in Q2 in China’s smartphone market. Consumers are
waiting for the next Iphone or buying other brands; Samsung maintains the lead.

Crude, gold and silver are set to begin below while natural gas is on the rise this morning.

Contributer Chris Rygh is currently pursuing his MBA in Wisconsin and has a passion for the Market.
Comments can be directed to ryghcw19@uww.edu