Keene at the Close 3.22.2012

 Tomorrow should be an interesting with Ben Bernanke talking for the third time this week.  I think that the stock market should rally into the end of the month and end of the quarter, but there are only 6 trading left until the quarter is over.  We continue to see Bullish Call activity in the Oil Sector and saw Put Sellers in X, PBR, and OIH today. And as always, I am keeping an eye on AAPL to see if it can sustain this all important $600 level.  Have a great night guys.

Halftime Report for 3.22.2012

Initial Claims beat expectations setting up for a potential big miss in next weeks revision. Home prices miss big on ninth consecutive slowdown(huge revision down from +0.07- +0.01.) GOOG is continuing to spike after Apple issues its dividend. Is there an Opportunity in China even though the rumors are that China is in for a hard landing?

Movers and Shakers (GOLD) Down $11.39 (12.4%) to $92.01

Chart Glance: Broader Moving Averages prove that GOLD is still in a down trend and momentum indicators do not show an oversold stock as of yet. After a multi-month consolidation between 115-100. GOLD seems to have lost its footing with the bearish gap down today. A lot of the Gold mining stocks are extremely volatile and if you do not have a strong stomach then you should definitely consider staying away.

50DMA-($111.17) 100DMA- ($109.74) 200 DMA- ($102.74)

Support 1:$92.55 Support 2: $89.92

GOLD is a primary component of the senior minors (GDX). GOLDs Geo-Political risk in Mali is currently compromising the interest in GOLD stock. Gold was downgraded to underweight today at JPM. A lot of the traders I know are all saying the same thing. GOLD (physical commodity) will dip below $1600 (major support) level and bounce to …. Turkish Government is seeking to transfer private Gold holdings into its current banking system (Reuters reports). Also, Thomson Reuters GFMS stated, “Gold $2,000/oz is possible.” Keep in mind, “gold is the best hedge for inflation.”

Morning Rage 3.22.2012

Today seems to be a risk off day as the USD is showing strength into the open trading above $80.00.
Silver and Gold are getting absoluetly smoked today. However, I want to start nibbling in Gold if it breaks the $1600 level. Silver is down over 2% trading at $31.52. Copper is also under heavy selling pressure, showing that today appears to be a risk-off day.
The Global economy remains in uncertain territory. China’s manufacturing data contracted for the 5th straight month. IS China in for a hard landing?
Economic Events:
  • Canada Retail Sales
  • Japan Trade Balance
  • China and Eurolan PMI
  • US Claims
  • Euroland Industrial Orders

Trade of the Day (HD) 3.21.2012

Break-even: I break-even on this trade if HD closes at $50.78 by April 20, 2012.

Unprofitable: This trade is unprofitable if HD closes under $50.78 by April 20, 2012.  The most I can I can lose is the $.78 that I paid for the Calls.

Reason I Like This Trade: When HD was trading $49.62, I saw a customer buy 3549 April 50 Calls for $.79, so I knew that I want to jump on the LONG HD bandwagon even though the stock traded its 52 week high today.  In Our “LIVE” Trading room talked about this trade in real-time, but have to be in the room to hear to LIVE.   

UPDATE 3.22.2012 This was a day trade for me and when I saw the stock trade higher, I sold out of my Calls for $.88.  Taking profits and moving to the next trade.  

Read more about closes by www.keeneonthemarket.com

Movers and Shakers (ORCL) Up $0.31 (1.03%) to $30.41

Chart Glance- After ORCL formed a double bottom on Dec 27th 2011 (around $25.50 level), ORCL has been off to the races. ORCL looks to be forming a broader, reverse head and shoulder-type pattern. Seems like ORCL has found a new support area at the $30 level. $32.50, and sellers start showing up to the party.

50 DMA ($28.94), 100 DMA ($29.44), 200 DMA ($7.58).

Support 1: $29.44 Support 2: $28.54

ORCL opens 2% higher after beating analysts’ estimates. ORCL reported earnings today that topped analysts expectations and software sales were strong. Revenue rose 3% to $9.1Billion, beating analysts’ expectations of $9Billion. Next, ORCL reported earnings of $0.62 per share, $0.06 better than the consensus. ORCL reported new software license revenue growth of positive (+) 8%. FBR and UBS raise price targets to $36 from $34. Finally, Elison bashes CRM’s cloud apps. Elison states, “CRM cloud apps does not have the same security features as the Fusion(ORCL’s cloud app).

Morning Rage 3.21.2012

Metals, (Silver and Gold) are finally trading in the green this morning after a few days of heavy selling pressure. Gold is trading at the all important support 1652 level and Silver caught a bid at the 31.75 level as investors want to own Gold rather than the Euro. Crude Oil is showing no sign of weakness and is staying above the 106 level for the time being. Their is a lot of risk premium built in Crude as speculators think a Middle-East war is inevitable.

Economic Events:
UK BoE Minutes and 2012 Budget Data
Bernanke will be lecturing on Monetary Policy at George Washington Univ.
Existing Home Sales