Chart Glance- GLD retesting resistance at that upward-sloping 200 day moving average. GLD chart is making “higher/ highs” and “lower/ lows.” Technicals indicate that GLD is in the middle leg of up-trending to higher prices and taking out recent 52 week highs ($185.85). Perhaps an inverse head and shoulder pattern forming?
50 DMA ($165.76), 100 DMA ($164.56), 200 DMA ($163.63).
Support 1: $160 Support 2: $151.10
The world’s largest gold ETF, the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) traded higher today after Mr. Bernanke hints at the “new QE.” Gold prices raged today to $1679 an ounce in pre-market today, up nearly 1% from last weeks close. Insanely high Oil Prices, Weak U.S. housing sales data and the U.S. dollar under heavy selling pressure ignited a rally in precious metals such as Gold.
The EUR/USD shorts are running for the hills as the USD is getting smacked around, trading under the 79.50 level. After Bernanke hints at more QE, Gold and Silver both caught a bid trading higher by more than 1% this morning. Also, WTI Crude is higher today after Friday’s parabolic move. Supposedly, Iranian Oil Supplies came in lower than analysts expected. Today, definitely feels like a “Risk-On” day, but we all know how fast the “risk on” trade can change.
Singapore IP (Feb): Consensus expects 4.1% Month over Month
Israel CB Meeting: We expect no change from 2.50%.
Argentina GDP (Q4): We expect 7.8% YOY vs consensus of 7.5% (9.3% Q4).
Ben Bernanke and Draghi Speak today.
ES has been trading in a tight 15 point range this morning (1380.50-1395.25). EUR/USD is trading near the highs of the session trading at the 1.3275 level. Crude Oil RAGED higher today moving more than 3 handles from $105.20-$108.25 due to Iranian Export Data. Gold is up 22 Pts or 1.4% for the day trading comfortably above the 1660 level. BATS crashes from $15.75 – $0.04 in minutes.. Circuit Breakers still in tact? Also, APPLE, YES APPLE, HALTS because of a fat finger mistake. Now I am starting to understand the mind-process and fear of the “Retail-Investor” investing in “Risky Assets.”
Tomorrow should be an interesting with Ben Bernanke talking for the third time this week. I think that the stock market should rally into the end of the month and end of the quarter, but there are only 6 trading left until the quarter is over. We continue to see Bullish Call activity in the Oil Sector and saw Put Sellers in X, PBR, and OIH today. And as always, I am keeping an eye on AAPL to see if it can sustain this all important $600 level. Have a great night guys.
Initial Claims beat expectations setting up for a potential big miss in next weeks revision. Home prices miss big on ninth consecutive slowdown(huge revision down from +0.07- +0.01.) GOOG is continuing to spike after Apple issues its dividend. Is there an Opportunity in China even though the rumors are that China is in for a hard landing?
Chart Glance: Broader Moving Averages prove that GOLD is still in a down trend and momentum indicators do not show an oversold stock as of yet. After a multi-month consolidation between 115-100. GOLD seems to have lost its footing with the bearish gap down today. A lot of the Gold mining stocks are extremely volatile and if you do not have a strong stomach then you should definitely consider staying away.
50DMA-($111.17) 100DMA- ($109.74) 200 DMA- ($102.74)
Support 1:$92.55 Support 2: $89.92
GOLD is a primary component of the senior minors (GDX). GOLDs Geo-Political risk in Mali is currently compromising the interest in GOLD stock. Gold was downgraded to underweight today at JPM. A lot of the traders I know are all saying the same thing. GOLD (physical commodity) will dip below $1600 (major support) level and bounce to …. Turkish Government is seeking to transfer private Gold holdings into its current banking system (Reuters reports). Also, Thomson Reuters GFMS stated, “Gold $2,000/oz is possible.” Keep in mind, “gold is the best hedge for inflation.”
Today seems to be a risk off day as the USD is showing strength into the open trading above $80.00.
Silver and Gold are getting absoluetly smoked today. However, I want to start nibbling in Gold if it breaks the $1600 level. Silver is down over 2% trading at $31.52. Copper is also under heavy selling pressure, showing that today appears to be a risk-off day.
The Global economy remains in uncertain territory. China’s manufacturing data contracted for the 5th straight month. IS China in for a hard landing?
- Canada Retail Sales
- Japan Trade Balance
- China and Eurolan PMI
- US Claims
- Euroland Industrial Orders