Morning Rage 2.27.2012

PCLN,CTB, and BRK.A report earnings today.
PCLN: Quarterly Earnings and Estimates (QE4) of $5.02. Quarterly Earnings and Revenue Estimates of $968 million. In my estimation, Priceline will beat analyst expectations for EPS and Revenue, but will probably lower its guidance. Furthermore, not one insider bought new shares in PCLN this year. That speaks volumes!

CTB: Quarterly Earnings and Estimates (QE4) of $.39 and Quarterly Revenue (QE4) of $1billion. In my opinion, the quarter will be a disappointment mainly due to weather, and consumers lack of replacement tire purchase. Also, announcements regarding labor disputes are expected during the CC.
By: Greg Zimny

KOTM Trades of the Week Master Archive 4.5.2012

Welcome to the KOTM Trades of the Week Newsletter. We are always striving to make this the best. Please feel free to email us with suggestions or questions. [email protected]



3.29.2012 ADOBEPDF  KOTM Trade of The Week STX 3.29.2012.pdf  KOTM Trade of The Week STX Updated 4.2.2012.pdf
3.27.2012 ADOBEPDF  KOTM Trade of The Week P 3272012.pdf  KOTM TRADE OF THE WEEK P Updated 4.2.2012.pdf
3.22.2012 ADOBEPDFKOTM TRADE OF THE WEEK MAPP 3.22.2012.pdf  KOTM TRADE OF THE WEEK MAPP Updated 4.2.2012.pdf
3.20.2012 ADOBEPDFKOTM TRADE OF THE WEEK RGP 3.20.2012.pdf   KOTM TRADE OF THE WEEK RGP 4.2.2012.pdf
3.16.2012 ADOBEPDFSPPITradeoftheWeek.pdf  KOTM TRAD
E OF THE WEEK SPPI Updated 4.2.2012 .pdf
3.15.2012
ADOBEPDF
TKTradeoftheWeek.pdf
 KOTM TRADE OF THE WEEK TK Updated 4.2.2012.pdf
3.13.2012 ADOBEPDFCLNEUPDATE3.13.2012.pdf KOTM TRADE OF THE WEEK CLNE Updated 3.22.2012.pdf
3.13.2012 ADOBEPDFKV.A_UPDATE3.13.2012.pdf  KOTM TRADE OF THE WEEK KV.A Updated 4.2.2012.pdf
3.6.2012 ADOBEPDF KOTM TRADE OF THE WEEK PANDORA 3.6.2012.pdf  P_UPDATE3.13.2012.pdf
3.5.2012 ADOBEPDFKOTM TRADE OF THE WEEK CLNE 3.5.2012.pdf

 CLNE TRADE OF THE WEEK UPDATE 3.8.2012.pdf

3.2.2012 ADOBEPDFKOTM TRADE OF THE WEEK KEG 3.2.2012.pdf KOTM TRADE OF THE WEEK KEG Updated 4.2.2012 .pdf
3.1.2012 ADOBEPDF< strong>KOTM TRADE OF THE WEEK FL 3.1.2012.pdf  KOTM TRADE OF THE WEEK FL Updated 4.2.2012.pdf
2.29.2012 ADOBEPDF KOTM TRADE OF THE WEEK PAAS 2.29.2012.pdf          KOTM TRADE OF THE WEEK PASS UPDATE 4.2.2012.pdf








        

Trade of the Day (IRM) 2.24.2012


Unprofitable:
 This trade is unprofitable if IRM Closes under $34.05 by July 20, 2012.  The most I can lose on this trade is the amount I paid for these Calls, $1.55.

Reason I like this Trade: There are unusual options activity orders, then I saw someone bought 1000 IRM July 32.5 Calls, they paid $1.55.  This was not a HUGE order, but it 30 times usual volume and the stock just had earnings, so volatility is very low.  The open interest on this strike was 1107 so it was an opening trade that is important as well.   I will be looking to piece of it it, just like I took profits in SEE, SYY, and SVU.  The chart looks strong and could test $32 very soon.  (See Disclaimer)

UPDATE 2.27.2012 With the stock looking strong on Friday, I sold 20% of my position for $1.75 and I still have an 80% position on thinking there is plenty of more room to the upside. 

UPDATE 2.28.2012 These Calls are currently worth $1.65, but I will leave this trade on for more upside.

UPDATE 2.29.2012 I am glad I sold 20% of my position, because IRM is looking a little bit weaker than expected.  I might look to Punt this trade on an upward move higher.

UPDATE 3.1.2012 I will be looking to take this trade off with a POP higher in stock.  These Calls are currently worth $1.45.

UPDATE 3.2.2012 This Calls are worth $1.35, but since I have 5 more months for this trade, I will leave it on for more upside, but glad I took partial profits.

UPDATE 3.5.2012 IRM is selling off again today, showing me that I have to take profits quicker than I have in the past.  Trading is trial and error, I think I need to make more quick profits and move on.

UPDATE 3.6.2012 I talked about the fact that I need to move a little faster on my trades, so I should have exited this one a little faster.  At least, I have until July until this trade can be profitable.

UPDATE 3.9.2012 This is interesting, because the other day Paper bought another 7,000 of these Calls for $1.00.  I sold a partial part of my position for $1.15 and I am comfortable taking this trade off for a scratch or small loser.

UPDATE 3.15.2012 These Calls are currently worth $1, but since they are 5 months away, I will leave them on

UPDATE 3.22.2012 These Calls are worth $.75 and I am happy that this trade is woring against me, I am just thankful that I took some profits while I could.

UPDATE 4.9.2012 These Calls are still worth $.75 and I will leave this trade on as anything can happen between now and July.

Earnings Trade of the Day 2.24.2012

ZAGG TRADE:

Trade: I sold the ZAGG March 9-8 Put Spread and sold the March 11-12 Call Spread for $.50 total. 
Profitable: I make money on this trade if ZAGG Closes between $8.50-$11.50 by March 16, 2012.
Break-even: I break-even on this trade if ZAGG Closes at $8.50 or $11.50 by March 16, 2012.
Unprofitable: This trade is unprofitable if ZAGG Closes under $8.50 or above $11.50 by March 16, 2012.  The most I can lose on this trade is the amount this spread can be worth $1 minus the amount I sold it for $.50 for a total of $.50.

UPDATE 2.27.2012 The earnings are after the close today and I put this order in the “Spread Book” for $.50 meaning I am willing to trade it for $.50, but I have NOT got filled yet.

UPDATE 2.28.2012 I actually did not get filled on this spread and I am mad because with volatility getting crushed this spread os worth $.35.  Oh well, on to the next trade.

UPDATE 2.29.2012 This spread is now worth $.20 making me upset that I did not get filled.  Oh well, on to the next trade, as LONG as my trading ideas are right, gives me a good feeling.  

UPDATE 3.2.2012 This spread is worth is still worth $.20

SINA TRADE:

Trade: I bought the SINA March 55-67.5 Strangle and sold the March weekly 55-67.5 Strangle for $1.75 total. 
Profitable:
 I make money on this trade if SINA closes between $55-$67.50 and the March volatility does not get crushed too bad.
Break-even:
 I break-even on this trade if SINA Stangle Swap is worth $1.75.
Unprofitable:
 
This trade is unprofitable if SINA Strangle Swap is worth less than $1.75.  This is a very hard trade to explain, but I basically want to the front month Strangle to be worthless and have Ma
rch volatility not get crushed, so the March strangle is worth more than $1.75.

UPDATE 2.27.2012 I got a partial fill in this stock on Friday at $1.75 and now the spread is worth $1.95.  I have a $1.80 bid in the “Spread Book” and will increase my position before earnings after the close.

UPDATE 2.28.2012 Even with stock rallying much more than expected, this spread is still worth $1.85 good for a small winner.  It now has a short delta, so I will leave this trade until Friday.

UPDATE 2.29.2012 With the stock selling off today, this spread is now worth $2.20.  I am offering 40% of my position at $2.30, 40% at $2.50 and 20% at $2.70 trying to lock some profits in.

UPDATE 3.2.2012 The stock market looks weak, but SINA is raging higher, making this spread less valuable.  This spread is now worth $1.00, but I am glad that I took partial profits.  I will be left with LONG the March 67.5 Puts for $1, so I will leave this position on and hope that SINA sells off within the next 2 weeks.

LOW TRADE:

Trade: I sold the LOW March 28-29 Call Spread and 26-25 Put Spread for $.35 total. 
Profitable:
 I make money on this trade if LOW Closes between $25.65-$28.35 by March 16, 2012.
Break-even:
 I break-even on this trade if LOW Closes at $25.65 or $28.35 by March 16, 2012.
Unprofitable:
 This trade is unprofitable if LOW Closes under $25.65 or above $28.35 by March 16, 2012.  The most I can lose on this trade is the amount this spread can be worth $1 minus the amount I sold it for $.35 for a total of $.65.

UPDATE 2.27.2012 I was NOT filled on this position on Friday and even with earnings out, this spread is worth about $.34.  I will not put an order in the “Spread Book,” because I only wanted to trade earnings and moving on to the next trade.

UPDATE 2.29.2012 This spread is worth $.38, but I do not have to worry about it, because I never was filled on the trade.  

UPDATE 3.2.2012 This spread is still worth $.38.


Halftime Report for 2.24.2012

Monday, CTB and PCLN are set to report earnings.

CTB: Quarterly Earnings and estimates of $.39 and Quarterly Revenue of $1B. CTB has a new management team and provide a lot of aftermarket tires. Is a USW deal close?

PCLN: Quarterly Earnings and estimates of $5.02 and Quarterly Revenue of $967M. Is it time to lock in profits? PCLN might give negative forward guidance because of high gas prices. PCLN has been in a 5 point trading range all day.

UNUSUAL OPTIONS ACTION:

We have seen a Customer buy 16,900 IVN Mar 20 Calls for $.25. This is 7.6x usual trading volume. This Could be a closing trade because open interest is only 25,000.

A Customer bought 10,000 AA Mar 11 Calls for $.12.

Also, we have seen a customer buy 10,800 Jun 3.5 Puts for $1.05.

By Greg Zimny