ECB officials state on Tuesday, “Greece’s private creditors to take a deeper write-down on the face value of their holdings.” In my opinion, the profitable way to make money in this economic climate is to buy the rumor and sell the news. If the Greeks deal was reached why is the EUR/USD near its lows? Why are European financials selling off and volatility increased? Monday night Reuters released a report that the Greek deal is reached and the EUR/ USD jumped a staggering 105 pips. Once the details regarding the deal were released, the EUR/ USD lost the majority of the Monday night move and is currently flirting with negative territory.
Crude oil is trading higher for the second week in a row as Iranian risk premium is built in to the max.. or is it? JPM hikes its WTI and Brent Crude price forecasts substantially. Gold is trading at the highs of the session at the all important $1750 level. It appears, the best hedge for inflation is still Gold. USD is under pressure this morning and be prepared for higher volatility in US equity markets as investors scramble.
Tuesday, investors await the US 2 YR note auction. Wal-Mart, Macy’s, Dell, and Kraft all report earnings on Tuesday, February 21, 2012.
By Greg Zimny