Put This Toy Back on the Shelf: HAS Earnings Outlook 2.6.2013

HAS opened at 37.80 and has seen continued bullish activity throughout the day pushing it even farther above the moving averages that range from the 50 day to the 200 day. The earnings whisper is slotted at $1.21 currently, which is a penny higher than the overall street consensus, as investors are concerned with last quarter’s productivity. HAS suffered from lower-than-expected holiday demand and noticeably lower operating margin and return on equity. Revenue estimate of $1.28 billion were released earlier in the year, well below what analysts had expected and earnings estimates were also well below expectations, which sent the stock on a 5% downswing since late January. Other toy companies that have reported already, such as Mattel (MAT), missed the streets expectations and failed to provide sufficient evidence as to growth potential in 2013.

The only “bright spot” for HAS, was the release of a new Monopoly token, the cat, which drew attention to the product and increased chatter on Facebook. Is this really enough to help the stock rebound though? Seeing as how the release of the new Monopoly game with new token, is not set to release until later this year, what conclusions can I draw to make this stock a buy? Going into earnings I feel that the stock will miss its earnings estimates and am looking to position myself to the downside. At this time I DO NOT have a position on in HAS.