First off, the chart seemed to be in a nice rounded bottom pattern, as indicated by the red lines smoothing out recent action. While this is far from a textbook pattern, the trend is undeniable, until it is broken at least, which may have been yesterday. The recent low of about $420 will prove to be a massively important resistance level in the short term, especially as we go into earnings and volatility picks up as markets attempt to find equilibrium.
The analyst community is expecting about $50 in EPS from the iPhone maker in the next fiscal year and the quarter coming in the next few trading days has consensus at $10.11 in EPS. Furthermore, the analyst community is still super bullish, with 40 buys, 9 holds, and 2 sells.
In addition to the rounded bottom chart, the bonus chart is that of Bloomberg’s issuer default-risk. This model takes into account the recent change in market cap, share price, and IV. Moreover the amount of short & long term debt and interest expense. According to the model, the likelihood that AAPL will default in the next year is 0.0023%… minimal, but interesting none-the-less. The model also suggests the 5yr CDS to be around 33 bps.
