Our Traders Not Sour Apple Inc. (AAPL) Ahead of Earnings

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Apple Inc. (AAPL) is a California based designer and manufacturer of consumer portable electronics, primarily known for its namesake iPhone, iPad, and Mac Book product lines. As of the time of this post (10:30AM CST), AAPL is currently trading at 110.35, down 2.42% on the day, and following a significant gap down in the broader market that continues to put downward pressure on most Nasdaq stocks. AAPL is currently well within the upper portion of its 52 week trading range of 70.50-119.75 (split adjusted), and the company is scheduled to release earnings today, 1/27/2015 after the market close.

Over the last eight quarters of earnings data available, AAPL has traded with mixed results, moving higher and lower evenly (four out of eight sessions) immediately following the EPS release. The average historical move in AAPL over this same time period was 5.2%. Currently the options market is pricing in a slightly larger than average implied move of approximately 7.55% based on the current price of the at-the-money straddle. This would represent about an $8.35 change in the price of the underlying stock by this Friday’s weekly options expiration. Despite today’s pullback, AAPL continues to remain in bullish territory on a daily chart, currently trading inside the upward sloping Ichomoku Cloud and holding above most relevant moving averages and the key 110 support level. Despite Apple’s mixed track record following earnings, the recent bullish price action and technical setup in AAPL have me leaning bullish this name going into this afternoon’s earnings report, and I will be looking to establish a long position before the close.

Potential Trade: Buying the AAPL Jan 30th Weekly 115-117 Call Spreads for $0.60
Risk: $60 per 1 lot
Reward: $140 per 1 lot
Breakeven: $115.60

Will Skyworks Solutions Inc. (SWKS) Continue It’s Bullish Earnings Record?

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Skyworks Solutions Inc. (SWKS) is a Massachusetts based circuit and semiconductor producer. As of the time of this post (9:45AM CST), SWKS is currently trading at 76.73, down 0.74% on the day. The stock continues to trade in an extremely strong uptrend, printing fresh highs off of this morning’s open around 78.00. The stock is up over 150% off the 52 week lows of 29.02 which printed near this time last year. SWKS is scheduled to report earnings today, 1/22/2015 after the market close.

Over the last eight quarters of earnings data available, SWKS has traded overwhelmingly bullishly, moving higher six out of eight sessions (and closing flat once) immediately following the EPS release. The average historical move during this same time period was approximately 7.0%. Currently the options market is pricing in a slightly larger than average implied move of about 8.31% based on the current pricing of the ATM straddle. This would imply a move of approximately 6.40 in the underlying stock by this Friday’s weekly options expiration. SWKS is currently well above the Ichimoku Cloud and all relevant moving averages on the daily chart, as it remains in a strong bullish uptrend as mentioned previously. In conjunction with the propensity of SWKS to trade higher after earnings, I will absolutely be leaning bullish this name and looking to establish a long position going into this afternoon’s close.

Potential Trade: Buying the SWKS Jan 23rd Weekly 80-82 Call Spreads for $0.60
Risk: $60 per 1 lot
Reward: $140 per 1 lot
Breakeven: $80.60

Will U.S. Bancorp (USB) Follow the Trend in Financials?

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U.S. Bancorp (USB) is a Minnesota based regional bank and financial services provider. At the time of this post (1:15PM CST), USB is currently trading at 41.02, down 1.20% on the day. The stock is currently well within the lower portion of its 52 week trading range of 38.10-46.10 following a sharp reversal and decline off the highs which printed in late December. USB is scheduled to report earnings tomorrow, 1/21/2015 before the opening bell.

Over the last eight quarters of earnings data available, USB has traded predominantly bearishly, moving lower on six out of eight sessions immediately following the EPS release. The average historical move during this same time period was approximately 1.3%. Currently the options market is pricing in an implied move of nearly double the historical average, or around 2.5% based on the current pricing of the at the money straddle. This would represent about a 1.00 change in the price of the underlying stock by this Friday’s weekly options expiration. USB is currently trading below the upward sloping Ichimoku Cloud and all relevant moving averages on a daily chart. Additionally, with USB’s heavy bearish lean following earnings six of the past eight quarters, coupled with the recent weakness in most of the other larger banks and financial stocks, I will be looking to get short USB going into this afternoon’s close.

Potential Trade: Buying the USB Jan 23rd Weekly 41-40 Put Spreads for $0.25
Risk: $25 per 1 lot
Reward: $75 per 1 lot
Breakeven: $40.75

Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) Sell Off on Earnings?

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Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) is a California based entertainment content provider that operates subscription-based services for both online digital streaming internationally and physical DVD delivery to customers within the United States. As of the time of this post (12:50PM CST), NFLX is currently trading at 343.10, up 1.71% on the day. The stock is currently well within the lower portion of its 52 week trading range of 299.50-489.29 where it has remained after share prices made a significant gap lower following last quarter’s earnings release. NFLX is set to report earnings today, 1/20/2015 after the market close.

Over the last eight quarters of earnings data available, NFLX has traded with mixed results, moving higher and lower equally, four out of eight sessions immediately following the EPS release. NFLX has been an extremely volatile mover over this same time period, with an average historical move of approximately 16.0%. Currently the options market is pricing in a slightly lower than average move of approximately 11.78% based on the price of the at the money straddle. This would represent about a 40.50 move in the price of the underlying stock by this Friday’s weekly options expiration. On a technical basis, NFLX remains well under the downward sloping Ichimoku Cloud and relevant moving averages on the daily chart. From a fundamental standpoint, Netflix faces continued competitive pressure from rival digital content providers such as Amazon’s Prime service, and Netflix’s membership growth will be closely scrutinized after disappointing numbers in this area last quarter preceded the precipitous drop in share prices. With a confluence of bearish factors in place for NFLX, I will be looking to establish a short position this name going into this afternoon’s earnings release.

Potential Trade: Buying the NFLX Jan 23rd Weekly 315-310 Put Spreads for $1.40
Risk: $140 per 1 lot
Reward: $360 per 1 lot
Breakeven: $313.60

Will Halliburton Company (HAL) Fall on Earnings?

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Halliburton Company (HAL) is a Houston based oil and gas exploration and production company. At the time of this post (9:50AM CST) HAL is currently trading at 38.80, up 3.94% on the day. The stock is currently just off of the lows of its 52 week trading range of 37.21-74.33. HAL has seen a steep decline in stock price since late July, as its high correlation to the deteriorating price of crude oil futures has weighed heavily on the company’s share value. HAL is scheduled to report earnings on Tuesday, 1/20/2015 before the opening bell.

Over the last eight quarter of earnings data available, HAL has traded relatively bullishly, moving higher on five out of eight sessions immediately following the EPS release. The average historical move over this same time period has been a relatively modest 2.7%. Currently, the options market is pricing in a slightly larger than average anticipated move of approximately 5.38% based on the price of the ATM straddle. This would represent about a 2.10 directional move in the price of the underlying stock by next Friday’s weekly options expiration. HAL is currently trading well below the downward sloping Ichimoku Cloud and all relevant moving averages on the daily chart, and continues to show little to no strength along with most oil and gas affiliated stock names. With seemingly no end in sight for the declining prices of crude oil, and weak earnings reactions emerging from throughout the sector, I will be leaning bearish HAL going into Tuesday’s earnings report, and looking to establish a short position going into today’s close.

Potential trade: Buying the HAL Jan 23rd Weekly 37.5-36.5 Put Spreads for $0.25
Risk: $25 per 1 lot
Reward: $75 per 1 lot
Breakeven: $37.25

Will The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) Sell Off Like the Rest of the Banks?

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The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) is a New York City based investment banking and financial management institution. At the time of this post (11:50AM CST), GS is currently trading at 178.55, down 0.93% on the day. The stock is currently within the middle portion of its 52 week trading range of 151.65-198.06, and has been in a relatively steady decline since the end of 2014 after failing a potential double top test over 195.00 on the daily chart. GS is set to report earnings tomorrow, 1/16/2015 before the opening bell.

Over the last eight quarters of earnings data available GS has traded mostly bearishly, moving lower on five out of eight sessions immediately following the EPS release. The average historical move during this time period was 2.0%. Currently the options market is pricing in approximately a 3.06% move in the stock by this Friday’s monthly options expiration, an implied move that would represent about a 5.50 change in the price of the stock. GS is currently trading well below the Ichimoku Cloud and all relevant moving averages on the daily chart, and has continued to fall alongside other big banks like WFC and JPM over the course of the last several weeks. This overall weakness in financials following earnings, coupled with Goldman Sachs’ recent tendency to trade lower after earnings has me leaning bearish this name, and I will be looking to establish a short position going into today’s close.

Potential Trade: Buying the GS Jan 177.5-175 Put Spreads for $0.60
Risk: $60 per 1 lot
Reward: $190 per 1 lot
Breakeven: $176.90

Will Weakness in Crude Send Schlumberger Limited (SLB) Lower on Earnings?

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Schlumberger Limited (SLB) is a Houston based information technology services provider with a focus on the oil and gas sector. At the time of this post (10:40AM CST), SLB is currently trading at 76.83, down 1.99% on the day. SLB is also currently continuing to press its recently formed 52 week lows of 75.60, well off the highs of 118.76 which printed in early July. The stock has been in a steep decline ever since, as its value has been correlated closely with the continued slide in the price of crude oil. SLB is scheduled to report earnings today, 1/15/2015 after the closing bell.

Over the last eight quarters of earnings data available, SLB has traded relatively bullishly, moving higher on five out of eight sessions immediately following the EPS release. The average historical move during this same time period was a modest 2.8%. The options market is currently pricing in a larger than average average move of approximately 5.03% based on the price of the ATM straddle. This would represent a change of around 2.90 in the stock by tomorrow’s monthly options expiration date. SLB continues to decline in price and remains well below the downward sloping Ichimoku Cloud on the daily chart. With seemingly no end in sight for declining prices in crude oil and a bearish technical setup in this name, I will certainly be leaning bearish SLB going into this afternoon’s earnings announcement.

What Will Earnings Hold for Bank of America Corporation (BAC)?

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Bank of America Corporation (BAC) is a Charlotte based banking and financial services provider that works with a spectral variety of end-customers ranging from retail bank users to corporations and institutional investors. As of this post (1:00PM CST) BAC is currently trading at 15.85, down 3.86% on the day. BAC is down with the broader market on the session, assisted by an earnings miss from JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and an in-line report from Wells Fargo (WFC) that was still met with a bearish reaction in early trading. BAC is trading near the middle of its 52 week range of 14.37-18.21, and the company is set to report earnings tomorrow, 1/15/2015 before the opening bell.

Over the last eight quarters of earnings data available, BAC has traded mostly bearishly, moving lower on five out of eight sessions immediately following the EPS release. The average historical move during this same time period has been 3.0%. Currently the options market is pricing in approximately a 3.44% move, relatively in-line with historical expectations. This implied move would represent about a 0.55 change in the price of the underlying stock by this Friday’s monthly options expiration in the January contracts. BAC stock opened this morning with a significant gap lower and is now well below the Ichimoku cloud on the daily chart after hitting firm resistance near the 18.00 level in late December. In conjunction with JPMorgan’s earnings miss and the bearish reaction to Wells Fargo’s in-line report, I am certainly leaning bearish BAC going into tomorrow’s earnings announcement. I am looking to establish a short position in this name heading into today’s close.

Will Lennar Corp. (LEN) Fall On Earnings?

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Lennar Corp. (LEN) is a Miami based residential construction corporation and home builder. At the time of this post (9:00AM CST), LEN is currently trading at 45.67, down 1.32% on the day. LEN is down this morning with the broader market, but also fell significantly in yesterday’s session after fellow home builder KB Home (KBH) reported a significant fourth quarter earnings miss. KBH CEO Jeffrey Mezger also released commentary yesterday indicating that weaker than expected profit margins could prevail into the foreseeable future, plunging the stock down nearly 16% to two year lows. LEN still remains in the upper portion of its 52 week trading range of 35.74-48.52, and is scheduled to report earnings tomorrow, 1/15/2015 before the opening bell.

Over the last eight quarters of earnings data available, LEN has traded mostly bullishly following earnings, moving higher on five out of eight sessions immediately following the EPS release. The average historical move over this same time period was 3.2%. The options market is currently pricing in a slightly larger than average implied move of approximately 5.43% in the stock by this Friday’s monthly options expiration, which would represent roughly a $2.50 change in the price of the stock over the next three trading days. While LEN has traded fairly bullishly over the last eight quarters of earnings, following the comments out of KBH yesterday regarding softening demand and weaker than expected profit margins for the home builder, I will certainly be leaning bearish this name going into earnings. I will subsequently be looking to establish a short position in LEN before today’s close.

Potential Trade: Long LEN Jan 44-43 Put Spreads for $0.25
Risk: $25 per 1 lot
Reward: $75 per 1 lot
Breakeven: $43.75

Will Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (BBBY) Take a Bath On Earnings?

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Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (BBBY) is a New Jersey based consumer home goods retailer that operates over 1,500 brick-and-mortar store locations across the United States, Puerto Rico and Canada. At the time of this post (10:30AM CST), BBBY is currently trading at 79.36, up 1.48% on the day. The stock remains in a steep uptrend and hit new 52 week highs on the session, raising the highs on its 52 week trading range to 79.51 against lows of 54.96 which printed in late June. BBBY is set to report earnings today, 1/8/2015 after the market close.

Over the last eight quarters of earnings data available, BBBY has traded mostly bearishly, moving lower on five out of eight sessions immediately following the EPS release. Historical volatility over this time period has been 5.8%, though the options market is currently pricing in a slightly larger implied move of around 6.29% based on the current price of the expiring weekly ATM straddle. This implied directional move would represent approximately a $5.00 change in the price of the underlying stock by tomorrow’s weekly options expiration. Although BBBY is currently trading well over the Ichimoku Cloud on the daily chart, the stock has potentially become over-extended, and coupled with its propensity to trade lower following earnings releases, I will be leaning bearish this name going into this afternoon’s EPS report.

Potential Trade: Buying the BBBY Jan 9th Weekly 77-75 Put Spreads for $0.50
Risk: $50 per 1 lot
Reward: $150 per 1 lot
Breakeven: $76.50