Author: Andrew Keene
4 Ways to Trade ADBE
S&P Emini Pivot points for 3.20.2013
Biggest Bearish Activity 3.19.2013
Paper bought 10,000 KERX June 4.5 Puts for $.14 when stock was trading $7.25
Paper bought 2500 TXI July 60 Puts (4.5 times usual volume) when stock was trading $66.43
Paper bought 900 BWA April 75 Puts for $1.05 (5.9 times usual volume) when stock was trading $77.45
Paper bought 900 SF Oct 35 Puts for $2.59 (13.2 times usual volume) when stock was trading $36.36
Paper bought 300 IBKR June 14 Puts for $.25 (2.7 times usual volume) when stock was trading $14.74
Biggest Bullish Activity 3.19.2013
Paper bought 1000 BKCC Aug 10 Calls for $.40 (19.9 times usual volume) when stock was trading $10.03
Paper bought 8250 DG April 52.5 Calls for $.38 (3.1 times usual volume) when stock was trading $47.65
Paper bought 2575 GOL April 7.5 Calls for $.50 (2.1 times usual volume) when stock was trading $7.47
Paper bought 3683 ALTR June 34 Calls for $2.55 (2.8 times usual volume) when stock was trading $35.04
Paper bought 500 WBSN July 15 Calls for $1.55 (9.9 times usual volume) when stock was trading $15.58
Unusual Options Activity Report 3.19.2013
Paper sold 5000 ERIC April 13 Puts for $.70 (4.6 times usual volume) when stock was trading $12.81
Paper bought 3683 ALTR June 34 Calls for $2.55 (2.8 times usual volume) when stock was trading $35.04
Paper bought 19,108 EA June 23 Calls for $.10 (12.7 times usual volume) when stock was trading $17.03
Paper bought 1500 SSRI June 10 Calls for $1.30 (21.4 times usual volume)when stock was trading $10.41
Paper bought 20,562 MU April 10 Calls for $.31 when stock was trading $9.34
Downward Dog LULU: See-Through Pants Problem (LULU, XRT) 3.19.2013
According to the firm’s latest 10q, 60% of LULU’s net revenue was derived from the sales of our products in the United States, 35% of net revenue was derived from sales of products in Canada, and 5% of net revenue was derived from sales of our products outside of North America. The firm believes that the vertical retail strategy allows them to interact more directly with and gain insights from customers while providing great control of the brand. Quality control is a serious topic according to the firm.
The April options with 31 DTE (days til expiration) are pricing in a 10% range either way; at a 68% confidence level.
ConocoPhillips (COP) to The Long 3.19.2013
The five-year plan to make this happen is to spend $3 billion on Permian assets; this is projected to add 40,000 barrels of oil per day in production. Not only will this assist with the decline in the base, but it will also produce an impressive 7% annual production growth through 2017. This plan will boost oil production by 45% (30% last year, with 75% projected for 2017).
ConocoPhillips will facilitate this through technology use, by incorporating 4-D seismic, coil tubing, casing, and drilling in their operations to lower their costs. They also intend to bring Alpine West/CD5 satellite into production by 2015-2016, decreasing the costs of the small oil pockets. Finally, they will use a new product to allow tubing to go in-between the rocks for significant monetary savings.
In the long-term, ConocoPhillips will be a winner. The company is the world’s third largest energy producer, with operations in over thirty countries and approximately 8.4 billion barrel of proven oil reserves. With their increase in production and reserves, the recent fall in commodity prices has taken its toll. In response, management sold off assets and decreased inventory. In 2012 they spun of their downstream assets into a separate company, Phillips 66. They are now exclusively focused on production growth.
Yesterday, paper bought 15,000 COP March weekly 60 Calls for $.21. Paper is an
order from a hedge fund, mutual fund, retail bank, or big trader. I jumped on board and
bought the COP April 60 Calls for $.68
My Trade: Buying the COP April 60 Calls for $.68
Risk: $68 per 1 lot
Reward: Unlimited
Breakeven: $60.68
Greeks of this Trade:
Delta: Long
Gamma: Long
Vega: Long
Theta: Short
—
Andrew Keene
President/Founder
Andrew@KeeneOnTheMarket.com