Halftime Report 2.4.2013

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A disappointing report on US Factory orders, helped the Dow move lower while all ten groups in the S&P 500 fell at least 0.4 percent, with Chevron (CVX) down 1.1 percent and Wal-Mart down 1.7 percent, leading the decline. This drop off could be merely based on people taking profits from a stellar January, however the markets, specifically the S&P 500, could be a bit overvalued, based on the slow economic recovery. The VIX did jump 13 percent today to 14.53, and is sporting the biggest gain on the year so far. The Euro also looked sluggish and slipped from recent highs against the dollar and yen on political uncertainty in Italy and rising unemployment in Spain.

 

MIST vs BRICS (EWY, EWW, EEM, SPY) 2.4.2013

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Traditional emerging markets, as measured by the BRICs, lagged in 2012 compared to the new generation of emerging markets and developed markets (SPY). The MIST index was basically created to differentiate these emerging countries, for some have better investment profiles than others. For example, the M in MIST (Mexico) has a lower unemployment rate than the USA. Moreover, Indonesia, I in MIST, has lower credit default swap rates on their 5 year bond compared to China; the C in BRICs.

In the age of the ETF, it is easy to build a diversified emerging markets portfolio. The MIST index below was build by taking the average of EWW, IDX, EWY, and TUR.

MIST=Blue

BRIC=purple

SPY=red/green

salerno.mark.a@gmail.com

Screen shot 2013-02-03 at 8.32.24 PM

Chicago Bridge & Iron Unusual Call Activity 2.1.2013

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I watch 3200 Stocks Trade everyday and I look for Stocks with Huge

Unusual Volume and I trade using the OCRRBTT Trading Plan.  Today

I saw paper buy 19,300 CBI April 55 Calls for $1.00 which was 12.2

times the Usual Volume, so I go through my Trading Plan

O: Options Volume vs Open Interest, 19,3000 vs 262

C:  Chart looks Very Bullish for a Breakout even higher

My Trade:  Buying the CBI April 55 Calls for $1.00

R: Risk: $100 per 1 lot

R: Reward: Unlimited

B: Breakeven: $56

T: Time: April

T: Target: Will take off 1/2 at Double then leave the other 1/2 until Expiration

Andrew Keene
President/Founder KeeneOnTheMarket.com

 

AKAM Fundamentals Before Earnings (AKAM, QQQ) 2.1.2013

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AKAM seems to be a way to play on the cloud-computing trend. Cloud companies tend to trade at a higher multiple than traditional tech. The recently released SKYY ETF, which tracks the cloud computing industry, has an average PE multiple of over 33x EPS for a company inside the ETF. AKAM trades at a significant discount to this average. Akamai’s “Cloud Performance Solutions” are designed to, “provide on-demand access to applications and resources anywhere…cloud computing offers businesses significant cost savings, and operational scalability,” says the company.

With regard to bottom line EPS performance. AKAM has had the tendency to beat Wall Street expectations. Over the last six observations (quarters), AKAM has posted positive EPS results over the streets’ expectations. The average beat is 6.6% over the same sample.

Other risks include general pricing trends. While there are very strong secular trends for AKAM (like the mobile tsunami), pricing is a key component for the stock. Renewal waves may keep the peeks and valleys of AKAM’s prices volatile to moving downward…a massive risk

But shares have been rather volatile. AKAM recently made a low of $20, so investors should be cautious. Another catalyst includes earnings. It is important to note that AKAM has earnings February 6th of 2013 after the close. The February options, that include earnings, are implying a $4.00 range in the stock by the third Friday of February (expiration day). This is roughly a 10% move up or down.

salerno.mark.a@gmail.com

Who Could Buy Twitter in 2013? 2.1.2013

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Lets start with Apple… its obvious that they have enough cash to buy Twitter up whenever they want to, but would they pay up? If you were looking at their track record, you would say no. But, Steve Jobs is not in charge anymore. The times of no major acquisitions could be over if Twitter entices Tim Cook enough. Personally, I think Cook would be willing to make the move…he’s already introduced dividends, and Jobs was obviously not willing to do that during his time. So why would shelling out 5-10 billion be any different?!

Apple already has the iPad, iPhone and Macs to immediately implement Twitter if they decide to make the move. The way all of their devices are currently connected to each other is mind blowing, and if they could figure out a way to weave social media into their products, it could be the next jump Apple needs to take to separate them from competitors.

How does Google fit with Twitter? Well, they have already tried their own social media aspect, Google+, and that has not worked out for one second! I do not know anyone who ever signed up for it and who currently uses it. But, that is not the point, the point is, is that they have tried to get into that business, but failed. Who says that they still don’t want to get back into it? They certainty have the cash to buyout Twitter, but would they make that move? Sure, they acquired Motorola for billions and look at what they’ve done with them?! Nothing! That doesn’t say they don’t have plans for the long term with Motorola, but in the short run it doesn’t look that way. Twitter is no different in my eyes; they could acquire them for ‘X’ amount and sit on them for a little bit before they introduce how they will be used.

Currently, Apple makes the most sense to acquire Twitter, but Google is right behind in second place. Look for the acquisition later on in 2013….

Author: Peter Nitso

pnitso@yahoo.com

Twitter: @PeterNitso