S&P Emini & Unusual Options Activity Daily Vid Recap 8.28.2012
Author: Andrew Keene
S&P Emini Pivot Points for 8.29.2012
Euro (6E) and Oil (CL) Pivot Points for 8.29.2012
Trade of the Day (GOOG) 8.28.2012
Trade: Selling the $GOOG August Weekly 680-685 Call Spread for $1.50
Risk: $350 per 1 lot
Reward: $150 per 1 lot
Notes: good risk vs rewad that does NOT break thorugh the recent highs of $580
UPDATE 9.11.2012 Not every trade will be a winner, this Spread went to $5 and at least it is over. One loser every 5 times isnt bad.
Nordstrom Company Profile 8.28.2012
Fundamentals
|
Forward PE |
14.60 |
|
Price-to-earnings-growth |
1.52 |
|
Price-to-sales |
1.06 |
Long Term Chart
10 year weekly chart has been a very strong stock since the market bottom in 2008. From the closing price on 11/17/2008 ($7.13) to the closing price of today 8/27/2012 ($57.68) this stock has returned over 700%.
Short Term Chart
Price is currently in an uptrend approaching the 50% median line around $60. Price is trending above the exponential moving averages (8, 34, 50, 100, and 200). Watch over today’s high at $58.37
Options Flow
89% of today’s option volume was on the call side.
A large amount of $57.5 calls where traded today, open interested in that strike is currently 5,703 contracts.
Additional Comments
- Trading within .86% of an all-time high
- 3.35% of the float is currently short
- A recent analysis downgrade with a target of $59
September Seasonal Stock Performance
Post Labor Day performance is defined by a Triple Witching Week where stock options, index options, and index futures all expire at the same time on the third Friday of the month. The third week of September, the week of expiration, as been slightly bullish since 1990. The following week is consistently bearish posting only 3 positive gains in September since 2000.
The end of September is prone to weakness due to institutional portfolio restructuring; the last day of Q3, this year on september 28th, has been down 10 of the last 14 years. From 1995 to 1999, the Dow average 4.2% gains, only to follow with a six year losing streak averaging -5.9%. The Dow recorded two positive years in 2009 and 2010 averaging a 5.0% gain. For the last seven years, the S&P has posted gains in September with the exception of 2008 during the financial crisis. The NASDAQ also posted gains for the past five years with the exception of 2008.
Alex Kalish holds a masters in economics from Suffolk University.
Crude Declines Despite Tropical Storm and Refinery Explosion 8.28.2012
The main reason for the fall in prices is the shutdown of refineries along the Gulf Coast. The storm is expected to halt production at 12 of the nation’s largest refineries along the Gulf Coast, lowering their demand for crude in the short term. The thought that the storm may lead to the United States opening their strategic reserves to make up production also contributed to the decline in crude today.
Despite the fall in crude, gasoline and heating oil did not see the same decline. With refineries shut down and no reserves of refined products to be released the supply of heating oil and gasoline will be disrupted far more than crude supply. The spread blew out in trading today but closed off of highs.
With the concern over production in the Gulf fading markets now look to Venezuela and try to evaluate how much the explosion at the Amuay refinery will impact the price of crude. The explosion occurred early on Saturday morning with a confirmed death toll of 41 people. The fires are still burning but Venezuelan officials say that the situation is completely under control. The refinery is capable of producing as much as 645,000 barrels per day, and officials claim that the refinery will be fully operational within 2 days of the all clear. The shutdown of this refinery doesn’t appear to be having a large effect on prices in the short term, but medium term effects will depend on whether or not the Venezuelans can stick to their time table for reopening the refinery.
Morning Rage 8.28.2012
Despite Japan’s outlook China still managed gains as the Hang Seng adding 0.1% today helped by strong performance from steel. Baoshan Steel and Iron announced plans to buyback 5B Yuan of A shares and jumped the maximum 10% in Shanghai. China Mobile rose 0.6% and was the top booster of the Hang Seng. Foxconn International Holdings dove 8% and is now down 47% in 2012.
Europe is down 0.4% on a doubtful macro-economic outlook as investors are reluctant to trade without stimulus. Spain’s economy contracted further in Q2 giving more incentive for companies to stay away from the region. French Bank Credit Agricole rose 0.6% as it grows closer to closing the deal to sell its Greek arm. Kingfisher, Europe’s biggest home improvement retailer, fell 4.3% after being downgraded by BofA Merrill Lynch to underperform from buy.
Ford is planning of bringing over its Lincoln brand to China, which is expected to be the largest luxury market by 2020.
In commodities, crude and silver are both set to begin up today while gold and natural gas are both down.
Contributer Chris Rygh is currently pursuing his MBA in Wisconsin and has a passion for the Market. Comments can be directed to ryghcw19@uww.edu
Tiffany Lowers Outlook for Rest of 2012 8.28.2012
Sales at the retailer’s flagship store on Fifth Avenue in New York, a store responsible for 10% of Tiffany’s revenue, dropped by 9 per cent.‘‘Not surprisingly, sales growth has been affected by economic weakness in a number of markets,’’ said CEO Michael J. Kowalski. ‘‘We think it is only prudent to maintain a cautious near-term outlook about global economic conditions and the effects on customer spending.’’Numerous firms continue to believe the stock will rise, however. Goldman Sachs iterates that Tiffany has a “rock solid” long-term brand franchise, and cites current sales figures to be a result of difficult macro-economic conditions.
Goldman recommends purchasing the stock and maintains its Buy rating with a $70 price target. Openheimer also has an outperform rating on the stock, with a price target of $71.00. The stock has a 52 week high of $81.99 and a low of $49.72. Tiffany plans to open 28 company-operated stores this year, including one in Manhattan’s Soho neighborhood, a second store in San Francisco, a shop in La Jolla, Calif., a store in Rio de Janeiro and a third store in Toronto.Wealthy consumers have been cutting back on high-end jewelry purchases, and time will tell if this aggressive expansion can generate more sales revenue.
Tiffany’s stock gained $4.21, or 7.2 percent, to close at $62.71 Monday.
S&P Emini & Unusual Options Activity Daily Vid Recap 8.27.2012
