Unusual Option Activity 10.16.2012

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Paper sold 3485 ISIS Oct 11 Puts for $.95 (8.6 times usual volume) when stock was trading $11.50
Paper bought 36,210 TYC Jan 2013 30 Calls for $.50 (14.1 times usual volume) when stock was trading $27.70

Paper bought 6000 PTEN Oct 17 Calls for $.40 (9.0 times usual volume) when stock was trading $17.14

Will Big Blue Bleed Red on Earnings or IBM @ $280 by 2015? 10.16.2012

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The next catalyst is their earnings announcement today!

For a complete review of what the options market, charts, statistics, and history are implying for IBM today see the link below for it is very important to know every angle.

LINK HERE

http://www.keeneonthemarket.com/blog/1551-pregame-ibm-earnings-from-every-angle-ibm-qqq-10152012

The analyst community has an average price target of $219 on IBM and many analysts are expecting about $3.61 in EPS. Credit Suisse, who has a neutral on the stock, recently adjusted their Q3 2012 EPS to $3.69, they go on to note that IBM will face tough times bringing revenue back up to par, but also noted their migration to higher margin businesses that compensate for said headwinds. Credit Suisse later went on to state that IBM is actually more or less a defensive type of stock, for it will get 50% of their incremental EPS from M&A and buybacks over the next five years. While this is not the most shareholder friendly or organic way to grow it still boosts the bottom line and hopefully shareholder value.

IBM will benefit from the mainframe refresh cycle for they have been expanding their mainframe ecosystem as they have been growing inorganically, for example in the software services and cloud space. This cycle is where IBM is sensitive to macro events and trends. The mainframe cycle is expected to be weak and damper the announcement today. Credit Suisse expects systems & technology revenues to be $3.98bn (-11% YoY) in the quarter; which may be confirming IBM’s recent focus shift into other businesses. Meanwhile, software is going to be increasingly important for IBM. Their $3.5bn in acquisitions need to prove their value and boost growth. Analysts are expecting software revenues to be up mid single digits YoY.

The analyst community has 13 overweighs, 19 holds, and zero sells currently. The median PE for next year is 12.3, below the market, but next year IBM has about $16 in forecasted EPS, implying about a $192 price, below where we are now.

 Feel free to e-mail any comments, feedback, suggestions, or general inquiries to…

Author

mark@keeneonthemarket.com

Screen shot 2012-10-14 at 1.12.39 AM

Earnings Play of the Day KO 10.15.2012

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The increase in revenues and earnings is not due to higher sales, but to raises in prices and new cost cutting measures Coca Cola has put into place. KO has beat earnings estimates 5 of the last 5 quarters, and has beat or met revenue estimates 5 of the last 5 quarters. The stock has rallied on the last 4 earnings reports with an average upside move 1.9%

My trade:

Trade: Buy the KO 38.5-39.5 Call Spread for $0.14

Risk: $14 per 1 lot

Reward: $86 per 1 lot

Breakeven: $38.64

Notes: The stock has rallied 4 out the last 4 earnings reports, and this trade has a great risk vs reward setup.

Unusual Option Activity 10.15.2012

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Paper bought 5,000 KRE Jan 38 Puts for $1.23 (4.0 times usual volume) when stock was trading $28.25

Paper bought 1133 CYS Dec 13 Calls for $.45 (10.3 times usual volume) when stock was trading $12.73

Paper bought 3382 TRV Oct 70 Calls for $.425 (7.4 times usual volume) when stock was trading $68.87