Keene at the Close 6.26.2012

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Chart Volatility VIX CBOEThere is only one thing that came out of today, the stock market is stuck in a range.  I do not think that the market will be able to break out through the 1280 level to the downside or above the 1350 level to the upside.  We saw positive news on NWSA as they are considering spinning their printing and media into two companies and the stock raged higher to $21.50 before coming off at the end of the day.  Also, we see the EUR hovering around this 1.25 level looking for a breakout and I continue to be short the EUR.  Earnings that I will be looking at for tonight and tomorrow before the bell are GIS, HRB, LEN, and MON.  I think the more we have slow days like today, the more the market will be stuck in a range and I am playing it accordingly

Trade of the Day (LEN) 6.26.2012

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Unprofitable:  I lose money on this trade if LEN closes above $28.39 July 20 on, 2012.  The most I can lose on this trade is the amount the Spread can be worth $1 minus the price I sold it for $.39 for a total of $.61.

Risk: $61 per 1 lot

Reward: $39 per 1 lot

Chart: Bearish overall has seen selling pressure above this  level

Notes: I am playing to the downside and I will make money on this trade if the stock goes down, flat, or up less than 8% on earnings.  It is currently implying a 11% move tonight.

UPDATE 6.27.2012  The stock is rallying, but the volatility is collapsing and the Spread is now worth $.52.  I will leave it on and hope LEN moves under the $28 level.

UPDATE 7.2.2012  This spread went rogue and is now worth $.85.  Since it can only go to $1, I am not taking it off, but I am also not looking to add to it.  Just sit and maybe LEN will sell-off until the end of July. 

UPDATE 7.5.2012  This Spread is still worth $.85, but I will leave this trade on as I think the stock market could sell-off.  I will be looking to take this trade off.

UPDATE 7.9.2012  This Spread is worth $.80 and if we continue to sell-off I will be looking to take this trade off for a small loser.

UPDATE 7.21.2012  The reason I like to sell Spreads is because I can always define my risk vs reward.  In this trade I was willing to risk $.61 and that is what I ended up losing as the Stock spiked higher.

Read more about options by www.keeneonthemarket.com

Halftime Report 6.26.2012

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In commodities, corn futures continued to rise on weather across the U.S. December corn rose 20.5 cents to $6.145 per bushel. WTI crude futures fell 53 cents to $78.68 and gold futures fell $16.60 to $1571.80.

The for profit education institution Apollo Group, Inc. (APOL) rose 9% after better than expected earnings.

News Corp (NWS) gained 6% as talks emerged that they would split into two separate companies, one for film, and one for print and online news.

Zynga (ZNGA) peaked up almost 3% in morning trading in anticipation of its release of new products.

Movers and Shakers (APOL) 6.26.2012

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Apollo Group runs for-profit colleges, most notably the University of Phoenix. They posted a net revenue of $134.0 million or $1.13 per share. Although the recent net revenue was lower than last year’s $212.4 million and $1.51 per share, the earnings beat analysts’ expectations. Student advisory services increased 2.6% since the previous quarter to $470.1 million. Marketing costs decreased from 1.3% to $158.9 million due to lower advertising costs. Their profit for the year will be as high as $740 million, above the previous consensus of $725 million and revenue will be in the range of $4.2-4.3 billion.

Apollo Group Co-CEO said, “We are focused on delivering the best possible experience and service to support working adults, to address workforce needs, and to strengthen the connection to careers for our students.”

Morning Rage 6.26.2012

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European shares are up and down, fighting worries surrounding the Eurozone, with most indexes
currently within .25% of where they began. The FTSEurofirst 300 is currently down .05% after being
up as much as 3.98%, being drug down by auto stocks. In the UK May budget deficits Jumped to 17.9B
Pounds from 15.2B a year ago.

Amazon will be launching its second generation of the Kindle fire July 31, this new version will have a
camera among other new features.

Morgan Stanley’s shares are hit in pre-trade, down 2%, after being downgraded to neutral from buy by
Goldman Sachs, while upgrading JPMorgan to that buy spot increasing their shares 1.6%.

Anheuser-Busch is a company to keep an eye on as they try to acquire Corona maker Grupo Modelo.
Corona is the 5th largest selling beer in the world and would increase Anheuser-Busch’s share of the US
beer market to 52%.

Commodities are looking up today, for once they agree gold, silver, natural gas, and crude are all in the
green.

Contributer Chris Rygh is currently pursuing his MBA in Wisconsin and has a passion for the Market.
Comments can be directed to ryghcw19@uww.edu

Trade of the Day (APOL) 6.25.2012

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Unprofitable:  I lose money on this trade if APOL closes above $35.30 June 29 on, 2012.  The most I can lose on this trade is the amount the Spread can be worth $1 minus the price I sold it for $.30 for a total of $.70.

Risk: $70 per 1 lot

Reward: $30 per 1 lot

Chart: Bearish overall has seen selling pressure above this 

Notes: I am playing to the downside and I will make money on this trade if the stock goes down, flat, or up less than 8% on earnings.  It is currently implying a 11% move tonight.

UPDATE 6.26.2012  This Spread is now worth $.48, but it is all over the place.  I think APOL can sell off under the $35 level.

UPDATE 6.27.2012  This Spread and stock sold off this morning and I could have covered it for $.39, but for some reason I left it on.  I will look to take off half if the stock moves lower.

UPDATE 7.2.2012  I am glad that I did not add to this position, because this Spread went to the whole value, $1.  Moving to the next trade for earnings. 

Read more about options by www.keeneonthemarket.com

Movers and Shakers (ALXA) 6.25.2012

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Alexza Pharmaceuticals Inc. is a pharmaceutical company that specializes in research and development of drugs that treat central nervous system conditions. One of Alexza’s most well known products is Stoccato nicotine, a vaporized drug that helps smokers by catering to the chemical and behavioral components of quitting. They are also in the process of developing a painkiller that would help cancer patients and patients with acute pain episodes.

Alexza can expect to hear the results of their marketing application from the FDA within a couple of weeks. Their marketing application was delayed after the FDA cited issues with its Mountain View, California manufacturing facility.

David Cornes holds a degree in economics from the University of Montana.


Halftime Report 6.25.2012

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Anheuser-Busch InBev NV (BUD) is in the process of acquiring Grupo Modelo (GPMCY), most famous for brewing Corona beer, for a deal valued at more than $12 billion. BUD’s shares rose almost 1% this morning and GPMCY rose over 12%.

Across the Pacific, Sony Corp. (6758.TO) and Panasonic Corp (6752.TO) made an agreement to develope a new organic light-emitting large screen TV. Sony was down about 2.5% and Panasonic was up just over .5%.

In the drug industry, Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY) and Pfizer (PFE) fell almost 4% and 1.3% respectively after the FDA requesting more information about their drug Eliquis.

Oil companies were taking losses across the board this morning as crude continued to fall and Brent crude fell below the significant $90 level. Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) was down over 2.25%, Chevron (CVX) was down almost 2% and BP PLC (BP) was down 2.22%. WTI crude futures were down $1.37 (-1.72%) and trading at $78.39.

Gold futures rose $8.80 to 1575.70 and Euro futures fell .6% to $1.2497. Natural gas futures rose 6.70 cents (2.55%) to $2.6920.