Unusual Options Activity 7.22.2013

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We define unusual option activity as large block trades that represent a large percentage of daily option volume. The block trade is considered “unusual” if the option volume is above the average daily volume over the past 22 days. At KeeneOnTheMarket.com we scan and analyze order flow from all of the major options exchanges in order to identify any unusual option activity.

Analyzing unusual order flow gives traders a window into what the positions that large institutional players have. The majority of unusual option activity can be traced back to hedge funds, mutual funds, and other large institutions. Knowing where these institutions are placing their bets can be hugely advantageous for any trader. These institutions have informational and technological advantages that the average trader doesn’t have, and the amount of time and analysis that goes into every one of their trades is substantial. We offer this service through our 7 hour daily LIVE trading room http://bit.ly/135QWt8 or through Premium Twitter feed with all entries, exits, and unusual options activity tweeted all day long: http://bit.ly/11f0L9u .

Order flow can however at times be deceiving. One might logically thing that a large block buyer of calls is bullish on the underlying. This is not always the case. Remember that a large number of participants in the equity options market are hedgers. Long calls are a hedge against short stock, and long puts are a hedge against long stock. With this in mind we have developed a 7 step trading plan that helps filter out unusual option activity that will not provide actionable trade setups. It is by using this plan that we are able to identify the most significant unusual options activity trades every day.

Getting Long SWY Based on Unusual Options Activity

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At the company’s second quarter earnings they announced that profits fell but this could be attributed to the tax charge for selling its operations in the company’s Canadian branch. Overall sales had decreased by 1.6% to $8.7 billion, which fell short of the analyst’s estimates at $10.5 billion. However, the company was able to beat their expectations of earnings per share by 1 cent, coming in at $0.51. The stock has recently improved and this is due to the announcement of same stores sale growth along with its success from organic products and store remodeling.

Safeway has recently agreed to sell its Canadian operations to the company Sobey, which is a large grocery chain in Canada for $5.8 billion. The proposed deal is expected to go through by the end of Q3 and Safeway is planning to use the proceeds for share buybacks along with reducing debt.

Unusual Option Activity:

We define unusual option activity as large block trades that represent a large percentage of daily option volume. The block trade is considered “unusual” if the option volume is above the average daily volume over the past 22 days. At KeeneOnTheMarket.com we scan and analyze order flow from all of the major options exchanges in order to identify any unusual option activity.

Analyzing unusual order flow gives traders a window into what the positions that large institutional players have. The majority of unusual option activity can be traced back to hedge funds, mutual funds, and other large institutions. Knowing where these institutions are placing their bets can be hugely advantageous for any trader. These institutions have informational and technological advantages that the average trader doesn’t have, and the amount of time and analysis that goes into every one of their trades is substantial. We offer this service through our 7 hour daily LIVE trading room http://bit.ly/135QWt8 or through Premium Twitter feed with all entries, exits, and unusual options activity tweeted all day long: http://bit.ly/11f0L9u .

Order flow can however at times be deceiving. One might logically thing that a large block buyer of calls is bullish on the underlying. This is not always the case. Remember that a large number of participants in the equity options market are hedgers. Long calls are a hedge against short stock, and long puts are a hedge against long stock. With this in mind we have developed a 7 step trading plan that helps filter out unusual option activity that will not provide actionable trade setups. It is by using this plan that we are able to identify the most significant unusual options activity trades every day.

The “Institutional Trade”: Today a trader bought 7500 SWY Aug 27 Calls for $.55 total

Their Risk: $55 per 1 lot
Their Reward: Unlimited
Their Breakeven: $27.55
Cash Outlay: $412,500

My Trade: I bought the SWY Aug 27 Calls for $.55

Risk: $55 per 1 lot
Reward: Unlimited
Breakeven: $27.55

Greeks of this Trade:
Delta: Long
Gamma: Long
Theta: Short
Vega: Long

The Week In Review: Keene's 10 Earnings Trades 7.19.2013

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Lot execute d based on $1,000 of Risk: 50
Current Price of Spread: $0

Profit/Loss: -$1000 Return: -100%

2. I sold the GS July 160-155 Put Spread and 165-170 Call Spread for $1.89 credit

Risk: $311 per 1 lot
Reward: $189 per a lot
Breakeven: $158.11 and $166.89

Lot execute d based on $1,000 of Risk: 3
Current Price of Spread: $0
Profit/Loss: $567 Return: 57%

3. I sold the JNJ July 90 Straddle and bought the 87.5 Puts and 92.5 Calls for $1.39 credit

Risk: $111 per 1 lot
Reward: $139 per a lot
Breakeven: $88.61 and $90.39

Lot execute d based on $1,000 of Risk: 9
Current Price of Spread: $1.69
Profit/Loss: ($270) Return: -27%

4. I bought the MOS July 55-52.5-50 Put Fly for $.43 debit

Risk: $43 per 1 lot
Reward: $207 per a lot
Breakeven: $50.43 and $54.57

Lot execute d based on $1,000 of Risk: 23
Current Price of Spread: $1.05
Profit/Loss: $1426 Return: 144%

5. I bought the KO July 41.5-42 Bull Call Spread for $.13 debit

Risk: $13 per 1 lot
Reward: $377 per a lot
Breakeven: $41.87

Lot execute d based on $1,000 of Risk: 77
Current Price of Spread: $0
Profit/Loss: ($1000) Return: -100%

6.  I sold the ABT July 35.5 Straddle and bought the 34.5 Put, 36.5 Call Strangle for $.65 credit

Risk: $35 per 1 lot
Reward: $65 per a lot
Breakeven: $34.85 and $36.15

Lot execute d based on $1,000 of Risk: 29
Current Price of Spread: $.20
Profit/Loss:  $1,305 Return: 130%

7. I bought the SCSS Sep 30 Calls for $1.00

Risk: $100 per 1 lot
Reward: Unlimited
Breakeven: $31

Lot execute d based on $1,000 of Risk: 10
Current Price of Spread: $.20
Profit/Loss: ($800) Return: -80%

8. I bought the SNDK  July 60-62.5-65 Call Fly for $.45 debit

Risk: $45 per 1 lot
Reward: $205 per 1 lot
Breakeven: $60.45 and $64.55

Lot execute d based on $1,000 of Risk: 22
Current Price of Spread: $2.00
Profit/Loss: $3410 Return: 341%

9. I bought the CHKP  July 55-57.5-60 Call Fly for $.40  debit

Risk: $40 per 1 lot
Reward: $210 per 1 lot
Breakeven: $55.40 and $59.60

Lot execute d based on $1,000 of Risk: 25
Current Price of Spread: $1.60
Profit/Loss: $3000 Return: 300%

10. I bought the SWKS  July 23-24-25 Call Fly for $.15  debit

Risk: $15 per 1 lot
Reward: $85  per 1 lot
Breakeven: $23.15 and $24.85

Lot execute d based on $1,000 of Risk: 66
Current Price of Spread: $.75
Profit/Loss: $3960 Return: 396%

-If I risked $1,000 per trade on each of these trades , I would have had a risk of $10,000 total:

Breakdown:  Winners:  6, Netting: $13,668
Losers: 4, Netting: ($3,707)

NET PROFIT: $9,961 or 99.6% Profits in 1 Week

Disclaimer: (http://bit.ly/15QxCRV)

Biggest Bullish Activity 7.19.2013

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We define unusual option activity as large block trades that represent a large percentage of daily option volume. The block trade is considered “unusual” if the option volume is above the average daily volume over the past 22 days. At KeeneOnTheMarket.com we scan and analyze order flow from all of the major options exchanges in order to identify any unusual option activity.

Analyzing unusual order flow gives traders a window into what the positions that large institutional players have. The majority of unusual option activity can be traced back to hedge funds, mutual funds, and other large institutions. Knowing where these institutions are placing their bets can be hugely advantageous for any trader. These institutions have informational and technological advantages that the average trader doesn’t have, and the amount of time and analysis that goes into every one of their trades is substantial. We offer this service through our 7 hour daily LIVE trading room http://bit.ly/135QWt8 or through Premium Twitter feed with all entries, exits, and unusual options activity tweeted all day long: http://bit.ly/11f0L9u .

Order flow can however at times be deceiving. One might logically thing that a large block buyer of calls is bullish on the underlying. This is not always the case. Remember that a large number of participants in the equity options market are hedgers. Long calls are a hedge against short stock, and long puts are a hedge against long stock. With this in mind we have developed a 7 step trading plan that helps filter out unusual option activity that will not provide actionable trade setups. It is by using this plan that we are able to identify the most significant unusual options activity trades every day.

Biggest Bearish Activity 7.19.2013

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We define unusual option activity as large block trades that represent a large percentage of daily option volume. The block trade is considered “unusual” if the option volume is above the average daily volume over the past 22 days. At KeeneOnTheMarket.com we scan and analyze order flow from all of the major options exchanges in order to identify any unusual option activity.

Analyzing unusual order flow gives traders a window into what the positions that large institutional players have. The majority of unusual option activity can be traced back to hedge funds, mutual funds, and other large institutions. Knowing where these institutions are placing their bets can be hugely advantageous for any trader. These institutions have informational and technological advantages that the average trader doesn’t have, and the amount of time and analysis that goes into every one of their trades is substantial. We offer this service through our 7 hour daily LIVE trading room http://bit.ly/135QWt8 or through Premium Twitter feed with all entries, exits, and unusual options activity tweeted all day long: http://bit.ly/11f0L9u .

Order flow can however at times be deceiving. One might logically thing that a large block buyer of calls is bullish on the underlying. This is not always the case. Remember that a large number of participants in the equity options market are hedgers. Long calls are a hedge against short stock, and long puts are a hedge against long stock. With this in mind we have developed a 7 step trading plan that helps filter out unusual option activity that will not provide actionable trade setups. It is by using this plan that we are able to identify the most significant unusual options activity trades every day.

Unusual Options Activity 7.19.2013

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We define unusual option activity as large block trades that represent a large percentage of daily option volume. The block trade is considered “unusual” if the option volume is above the average daily volume over the past 22 days. At KeeneOnTheMarket.com we scan and analyze order flow from all of the major options exchanges in order to identify any unusual option activity.

Analyzing unusual order flow gives traders a window into what the positions that large institutional players have. The majority of unusual option activity can be traced back to hedge funds, mutual funds, and other large institutions. Knowing where these institutions are placing their bets can be hugely advantageous for any trader. These institutions have informational and technological advantages that the average trader doesn’t have, and the amount of time and analysis that goes into every one of their trades is substantial. We offer this service through our 7 hour daily LIVE trading room http://bit.ly/135QWt8 or through Premium Twitter feed with all entries, exits, and unusual options activity tweeted all day long: http://bit.ly/11f0L9u .

Order flow can however at times be deceiving. One might logically thing that a large block buyer of calls is bullish on the underlying. This is not always the case. Remember that a large number of participants in the equity options market are hedgers. Long calls are a hedge against short stock, and long puts are a hedge against long stock. With this in mind we have developed a 7 step trading plan that helps filter out unusual option activity that will not provide actionable trade setups. It is by using this plan that we are able to identify the most significant unusual options activity trades every day.

Is the DELL Deal Dead?

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Dell officials, who believe shareholders view bid as an undervaluation of the company’s potential, postponed a shareholder meeting until July 24th to allow for more time to persuade investors to change their votes to “yes” or to sway the 23% of eligible voters who did not participate in the decision. It will take more than 42% of Dell’s shareholders to approve the deal, and analysts of the situation predict that “there is going to be a lot of arm-twisting.” Opponents to the offer like billionaire Carl Icahn and Southeastern Asset Management have recently increased their last offer of $14 per share to an amount in the range of $15-$18 per share as a last-ditch effort to counter that of Dell, though investors have cited Icahn’s bid as not much of an improvement.

In February Dell first announced his desire to take the company private not only to counter consumer change from PC to smartphones but also to allow for more money to invest in the mobile device market without needing to satisfy investors. His main job now will be changing investor sentiment, and though he has stated before that he is not willing to change his buyout offer, there is some speculation he may simply raise the bid to get the investor support he needs. Stock rose after news of the buyout offer, signaling that more investors may be in favor of the deal. 

MSFT Earnings are Wildly Disappointing

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The main reasons behind the drop in revenue are the disappointing results of Microsoft’s Windows sector and the atrocious performance of its Surface RT line of tablets. The company’s personal computer sales are slowing, as are PC sales around the globe. In addition, MSFT continues to come in second to their rival Apple’s more user friendly Mac. The decline in PC sales is the reason behind the poor Window’s performance as that sector’s profit margin has fallen to 42%. Even more alarming is the $900 million bath that Microsoft Corporation has taken with unsold products from their Surface RT tablet line. The Surface RT has been a huge disappointment and the tablet was wildly over priced at roughly $350. Microsoft has recognized this and recently cut the price by $200 in an effort to attract more consumers. However, the price is not the only problem with the RT. The Surface RT simply isn’t a great product as it runs just 60,000 apps compared to the Ipad’s 400,000 and Microsoft’s Surface Pro, which runs the same apps as the RT along with all Windows apps as well. There really is not a market for the RT and no matter how much MSFT cuts the price the RT is not going to sell because there are better products out there

The poor fourth quarter results for Microsoft signal a larger problem for the company. Their main moneymaker, Windows, is declining in sales and unless they do something to improve their products (like the Surface RT) there will be many more disappointing quarters ahead. 

What Happened with Google's Earnings?

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In recent news, Google has announced their Q2 earnings with revenue at $14.11 billion and earnings per share at $9.56. This report was below expectations and has caused the stock to take a dive, with analysts looking for earnings per share at $10.80 and revenue at $14.5 billion. From the news of the Q2 report the stock sank $37.18 or around 4%.

In Google’s report they announced that their average ad rate fell 6% within the last three months adding to the downward trend that the company was having from their “cost per click” ad model. The lower than expected revenue continues to put concern on the operating expenses that Google is spending on projects that have little relevance, such as driverless cars or antenna equipped balloons. Although things did not turn out as well as Google might have hoped for their Q2 report, the company is looking to increase ad prices on mobile devices to help drive revenue.