Category: Blog
Doherty at the Close 6.1.2012
The unemployment rate ticked one-tenth of a percentage point higher to 8.2%, the first increase in nearly a year.
Both the Dow and S&P 500 staged their biggest first-quarter ascents in over a decade; just one month ago, the Dow closed at a 4½-year high.
Blue chips have since fallen nearly 9%, and the Dow industrials closed down 0.8% for the year on Friday. Investors have been on tenterhooks in recent weeks over Greece’s potential exit from the euro zone and the instability of Spanish banks. Worries about Europe have compounded concerns that global economic growth is slowing.
European markets extended declines when the US jobs report came out, with the Stoxx Europe 600 shedding -1.9% to its lowest close of the year. Asian markets lost -1.2% as manufacturing slowed in China and throughout Asia.
Groupon (GRPN) dropped -2.20, as more than 600 million additional shares were released to the public with the end of its stock “lockup period.” Facebook (FB) fell -6.35% after making a rally late Thursday. Verizon Communications (VZ) lost -2.2% after agreeing to acquire Hugh Telematics, a voice and data communications developer.
Finally, the poor jobs report marked a mad dash out of stock and into haven assets. Gold prices shot up 3.7%, to settle at $1,620.50 a troy ounce. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes fell to 1.437% in intraday trading, dropping below 1.5% for the first time ever, ending at 1.467%.
Thomas Doherty is a student at Villanova University majoring in Finance and Economics. All questions and comments can be sent to Thomas@KeeneOnTheMarket.com
Trade of the Day (SPY) 6.1.2012
Unprofitable: I lose money on this trade if SPY closes under $125.75 or above June 8, 2012. The most I can lose on this trade is the amount the Spread can be worth $1 minus the price I sold it for $.25 for a total of $.75.
Reason I Like This Trade: I like this trade, because I can make money if the stock market rallies, is flat, or goes lower. The SPY can sell off another 2% and I still make money on this trade. This $126 level would take us to unchanged on the year.
UPDATE 6.4.2012 With the SPY unchanged, this Spread is currently worth $.25 and I will leave it on, because in 5 days it will hopefully expire worthless.
UPDATE 6.5.2012 With SPY rallying today I took half of my position off for a double, I bought the Spread for $.12. Leaving the other half on, but taking some profits.
UPDATE 6.7.2012 With the SPY rallying hard, this Spread is worthless. Obviously no trade is a winner until it is closed, but I will leave this trade on so I dont have to waste money in commissions.
UPDATE 6.11.2012 This Spread went out worthless and moving to the next trade.
Read more about closes by www.keeneonthemarket.com
Halftime Report 6.1.2012
The market is also falling today due to a lower than expected payroll and unemployment report values. Nonfarm payrolls rose 69,000 in May, according to the Labor Department, the smallest gain in a year and well below forecasts for an increase of 155,000. Moreover, the unemployment rate ticked one-tenth of a percentage point higher to 8.2%, the first increase in nearly a year. However, it was reported that the increase in unemployment was not a result of layoffs, but induviduals coming back into the work force and try to find jobs. With the U.S. economy looking weaker than it did just several weeks ago, pressure is mounting on the Federal Reserve to step in again with additional measures to stimulate growth. Futhermore, Congress is divided and idle in an election year in which the economy will be the biggest issue in the local and Presidential elections.
All 10 of the S&P 500’s sectors fell early morning, as did all components of the Dow. Financial stocks, including Bank of America (BAC), -4.41% were the biggest decliners. American Express (AXP), -4.49% also fell, while tech company Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), -3.88% dropped. The jobs report sparked a rush out of stocks into haven assets. Gold prices shot up 3.1%, to $1,613 a troy ounce. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes fell to 1.472%, dropping below 1.5% for the first time ever. Groupon (GRPN), dropped -10.07 as more shares were introduced to the public following their IPO. Omnivision (OVTI) lost -94.2% as they missed quarterly earnings, despite growth. Most commodities fell. Crude-oil prices slumped 3.1%, to $83.40 a barrel. The dollar retreated against the euro and yen.
Thomas Doherty is a student at Villanova University majoring in Finance and Economics. All questions and comments can be sent to Thomas@KeeneOnTheMarket.com
Movers and Shakers (OVTI) 6.1.2012
With their fiscal fourth quarter earnings, OmniVision announced that their earnings fell 92% as the digigtal provider suffered through weakened margins and revenues. Initially, OmniVision projected first quarter earnings of between $0.16 and $0.27, also below the mean analyst estimate of $0.29. On the other hand, they announced first quarter revenue of $235 million to $255 million, above analyst projections of $219 million. For the quarter ended April 30, OmniVision reported a profit of $2.7 million, or 5 cents a share, down from $34 million, or 56 cents a share. Gross margin narrowed to 22.5% from 30.7% and operating expenses were up 5.3% as research-and-development expenses jumped 12%. OmniVision designs chips that convert optical images to an electrical signal in digital cameras and videogames. Finally, OmniVision was rumored to be the iPhone 5 camera supplier, so look for a jump in the price if the rumor proves to be true.
Thomas Doherty is a student at Villanova University majoring in Finance and Economics. All questions and comments can be sent to Thomas@KeeneOnTheMarket.com
Read more about every by www.keeneonthemarket.com
Morning Rage 6.1.2012
China’s Hang Seng also finished in the Red with Aluminum Corp of China their biggest loser down 4.76%
and Cathay Pacific Airways Shining up 4.17%.
China’s Official Purchasing Index fell to 50.4% a new low on the year showing slowing growth for the
giant.
European shares seem to be following the lead of Asian with the FTSEurofirst 300 currently down 1.5%
which hit its lowest level of 952.55 since December 20th earlier in trading.
The Futures markets is heading in a downward direction this morning with crude, natural gas, gold and
silver all down of which energy was hit hardest both dropping over 2%.
The Monster employment index came in this morning, showing the US a gleam of light, up 3% with 13 of
their 20 industries showing positive annual growth trends.
Contributer Chris Rygh is currently pursuing his MBA in Wisconsin and has a passion for the Market.
Comments can be directed to ryghcw19@uww.edu
S&P Emini & Unusual Options Activity Daily Vid Recap 5.31.2012
S&P Emini Pivot Points for 6.1.2012
Doherty At the Close 5.31.2012
In global news, the International Monetary Fund, or IMF, began discussing contingency plans for a rescue loan to Spanish banks in the event the country fails to find the funds need to bail out failed bank Bankia, according to Dow Jones Newswires. Spanish officials later dismissed the report, fueling the late day loss. A three-year rescue loan for Spain could be as much as €300 billion, one person said, although any bailout could involve smaller, shorter-term loans. An issue in any bailout of Spain, which could end up being bigger than those already agreed to for Greece, Ireland and Portugal, would be the size of the contributions made by the IMF and the EU and where those funds would come from. Spain needs €19 billion to rescue Bankia, but its own bank bailout fund has only about €9 billion left.
Also Thursday, the Commerce Department lowered its estimate for first-quarter economic growth to 1.9% from 2.2%, in line with economists’ expectation that the U.S. economy slowed more than initially thought during the period. The price index for personal consumption increased 2.4%, as previously estimated.
As this blogger predicted on Tuesday, Facebook (FB) found its bottom at $28 and rallied late in the day, finishing up 5.11% at $29.60. However, Facebook remains well below its $38 IPO price. Joy Global (Joy) skid -5.1% as it lowered its full year projections for the international market, citing loss in European and Chinese demand. Ciena (CIEN) rallied as one of today’s top gainers finishing at $13.55, up 14.06%.
Looking forward, tomorrow will be a major day for the macro economy as the unemployment rate and nonfarm payroll values are released in the morning. Additionally, personal spending and private payroll numbers will also be available. Analysts expect the Nonfarm payroll numbers to be at 150K and the unemployment rate to be 8.1%, mirroring last month’s value.
Thomas Doherty is a student at Villanova University majoring in Finance and Economics. All questions and comments can be sent to Thomas@KeeneOnTheMarket.com
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Trade of the Day (ASNA) 5.31.2012
Unprofitable: I lose money on this trade if ASNA closes under $18.35 on June 15, 2012. The most I can lose on this trade is the amount the Spread can be .
Reason I Like This Trade: I think that ASNA will have strong earnings, but if it breaks $18.50 it could be goodnight ASNA. In this strategy I make money if ASNA goes up, flat, or down less than 3%
UPDATE 6.4.2012 This Spread is worth $.32 and if the stock can rally above $18.50 then I will collect the whole credit I sold the Spread for. If it closes above $18.35, it will be a profitable trade.
UPDATE 6.5.2012 This Spread is worth $.35, but I will leave this trade on and hope for a POP higher in the stock.
UPDATE 6.7.2012 This Spread is worth $.15, but since it is such a small position I will leave this trade on.
UPDATE 6.11.2012 This Spread is worth $.10 and I am leaving this position still on.
UPDATE 6.13.2012 With 2 days left, this trade looks like it will be worth zero, but no trade is a winner until it is closed.
UPDATE 6.27.2012 This trade went out worthless and moving to the next trade.