Biggest Bearish Activity 4.18.2013

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Bears Bear Market RagePaper Sells 22,578 NOK May 3.5 Calls for $0.07 (2.6 time usual volume) with stock trading at $3.15
Paper Buys 37,500 XOP May 53 Puts for $1.23 (3.7 times usual volume) with stock trading at $54.77
Paper Sells 12,351 NBG Aug Calls for $0.05 (4.1 times usual volume) with stock at $0.69
Paper Buys 2,445 CCI Jan 60 Puts for $1.55 (4.8 times usual volume) with stock trading at $74.00
Paper Buys 9,712 FTR May 4 puts for $0.20 (8.2 times usual volume) with stock trading at $4.01

Biggest Bullish Activity 4.18.2013

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bullishPapaer Buys 1,912 ILMN Jun 60 Calls for $2.35 (2.5 times usual volume) with stock trading at $57.23
Paper Buys 700 PWER Jul 5 Calls for $0.25 (2.6 times usual volume) with stock at $4.02
Paper Buys 2,500 EWT Jun 14 Calls for $0.10 (3.5 times usual volume) with stock trading at $13.16
Paper Buys 29,990 ACAD Jan 12-15 Call Spreads for $1.40 (7 Times usual volume) wuth stock at $12.11
Paper Sells 6,106 ACI Jul 6 Puts for $1.46 (2.2 times usual volume) with stock at $4.92

Unusual Options Activity 4.18.2013

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blog28Paper Buys 29,990 ACAD Jan 12-15 Call Spreads for $1.40 (7 Times usual volume) wuth stock at $12.11
Paper Sells 22,578 NOK May 3.5 Calls for $0.07 (2.6 time usual volume) with stock trading at $3.15
Paper Buys 37,500 XOP May 53 Puts for $1.23 (3.7 times usual volume) with stock trading at $54.77
Paper Sells 6,106 ACI Jul 6 Puts for $1.46 (2.2 times usual volume) with stock at $4.92
Paper Sells 12,351 NBG Aug Calls for $0.05 (4.1 times usual volume) with stock at $0.69

Apple Longs Fear This Chart: Chart and Default Risk (AAPL, QQQ) 4.18.2013

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First off, the chart seemed to be in a nice rounded bottom pattern, as indicated by the red lines smoothing out recent action.  While this is far from a textbook pattern, the trend is undeniable, until it is broken at least, which may have been yesterday. The recent low of about $420 will prove to be a massively important resistance level in the short term, especially as we go into earnings and volatility picks up as markets attempt to find equilibrium.

The analyst community is expecting about $50 in EPS from the iPhone maker in the next fiscal year and the quarter coming in the next few trading days has consensus at $10.11 in EPS.  Furthermore, the analyst community is still super bullish, with 40 buys, 9 holds, and 2 sells.

In addition to the rounded bottom chart, the bonus chart is that of Bloomberg’s issuer default-risk. This model takes into account the recent change in market cap, share price, and IV. Moreover the amount of short & long term debt and interest expense. According to the model, the likelihood that AAPL will default in the next year is 0.0023%… minimal, but interesting none-the-less.  The model also suggests the 5yr CDS to be around 33 bps.

salerno 4.18A Salerno 4.18B

Biggest Bearish Activity 4.17.2013

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Bears Bear Market RagePaper Bought 20,000 AGNC May 32 Puts for $0.66 (5 times usual volume) with stock trading at $32.08
Paper Bought 3,571 TSN Apr 23 Puts for $0.15 (2.1 times usual volume) with stock trading at $23.48
Paper Bought 500 ANH Oct 6 Puts for $0.35 (4.5 times usual volume) with stock trading $6.09
Paper Bought 1,700 IRM Jul 32.5 Puts for $0.75 with stock trading at $36.45
Paper Bought 800 DBC Jul 22 Puts for $0.16 (9.5 time usual volume) with stock trading $25.55

Biggest Bullish Activity 4.17.2013

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bullishPaper Buys 1,000 PDCE Jul 55 Calls for $0.40 (3.3 times usual volume) with stock at 38.67
Paper Sold 155,850 FXI May 35 Puts for $1.03 (4.1 times usual volume) with stock trading at $34.85
Paper Sells 25,000 BHP Aug 50 Puts for $0.70 (5 times usual volume) with stock trading at $63.77
Paper Sold 10,000 ABX Jan 15 Puts for $1.175 (2.1 times usual volume) with stock trading at $18.83
Paper Bought 2,600 MHR Jan 2.5 Calls for $0.70 (7.1 times usual volume) when stock was trading $2.54

Unusual Options Activity 4.17.2013

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Down Tick Options SpreadPaper Sold 155850 FXI May 35 Puts for $1.03 (4.1 times usual volume) with stock trading at $34.85
Paper Sold 10000 ABX Jan 15 Puts for $1.175 (2.1 times usual volume) with stock trading at $18.83
Paper Bought 20000 AGNC May 32 Puts for $0.66 (5 times usual volume) with stock trading at $32.08
Paper Sells 25000 BHP Aug 50 Puts for $0.70 (5 times usual volume) with stock trading at $63.77
Paper sells 53810 FXI A[r 38.5 Puts for $3.55 (4.1 times usual volume) with stock at $34.91