Biggest Bearish Activity 4.18.2013

Bears Bear Market RagePaper Sells 22,578 NOK May 3.5 Calls for $0.07 (2.6 time usual volume) with stock trading at $3.15
Paper Buys 37,500 XOP May 53 Puts for $1.23 (3.7 times usual volume) with stock trading at $54.77
Paper Sells 12,351 NBG Aug Calls for $0.05 (4.1 times usual volume) with stock at $0.69
Paper Buys 2,445 CCI Jan 60 Puts for $1.55 (4.8 times usual volume) with stock trading at $74.00
Paper Buys 9,712 FTR May 4 puts for $0.20 (8.2 times usual volume) with stock trading at $4.01

Biggest Bullish Activity 4.18.2013

bullishPapaer Buys 1,912 ILMN Jun 60 Calls for $2.35 (2.5 times usual volume) with stock trading at $57.23
Paper Buys 700 PWER Jul 5 Calls for $0.25 (2.6 times usual volume) with stock at $4.02
Paper Buys 2,500 EWT Jun 14 Calls for $0.10 (3.5 times usual volume) with stock trading at $13.16
Paper Buys 29,990 ACAD Jan 12-15 Call Spreads for $1.40 (7 Times usual volume) wuth stock at $12.11
Paper Sells 6,106 ACI Jul 6 Puts for $1.46 (2.2 times usual volume) with stock at $4.92

Unusual Options Activity 4.18.2013

blog28Paper Buys 29,990 ACAD Jan 12-15 Call Spreads for $1.40 (7 Times usual volume) wuth stock at $12.11
Paper Sells 22,578 NOK May 3.5 Calls for $0.07 (2.6 time usual volume) with stock trading at $3.15
Paper Buys 37,500 XOP May 53 Puts for $1.23 (3.7 times usual volume) with stock trading at $54.77
Paper Sells 6,106 ACI Jul 6 Puts for $1.46 (2.2 times usual volume) with stock at $4.92
Paper Sells 12,351 NBG Aug Calls for $0.05 (4.1 times usual volume) with stock at $0.69

Apple Longs Fear This Chart: Chart and Default Risk (AAPL, QQQ) 4.18.2013

First off, the chart seemed to be in a nice rounded bottom pattern, as indicated by the red lines smoothing out recent action.  While this is far from a textbook pattern, the trend is undeniable, until it is broken at least, which may have been yesterday. The recent low of about $420 will prove to be a massively important resistance level in the short term, especially as we go into earnings and volatility picks up as markets attempt to find equilibrium.

The analyst community is expecting about $50 in EPS from the iPhone maker in the next fiscal year and the quarter coming in the next few trading days has consensus at $10.11 in EPS.  Furthermore, the analyst community is still super bullish, with 40 buys, 9 holds, and 2 sells.

In addition to the rounded bottom chart, the bonus chart is that of Bloomberg’s issuer default-risk. This model takes into account the recent change in market cap, share price, and IV. Moreover the amount of short & long term debt and interest expense. According to the model, the likelihood that AAPL will default in the next year is 0.0023%… minimal, but interesting none-the-less.  The model also suggests the 5yr CDS to be around 33 bps.

salerno 4.18A Salerno 4.18B

Biggest Bearish Activity 4.17.2013

Bears Bear Market RagePaper Bought 20,000 AGNC May 32 Puts for $0.66 (5 times usual volume) with stock trading at $32.08
Paper Bought 3,571 TSN Apr 23 Puts for $0.15 (2.1 times usual volume) with stock trading at $23.48
Paper Bought 500 ANH Oct 6 Puts for $0.35 (4.5 times usual volume) with stock trading $6.09
Paper Bought 1,700 IRM Jul 32.5 Puts for $0.75 with stock trading at $36.45
Paper Bought 800 DBC Jul 22 Puts for $0.16 (9.5 time usual volume) with stock trading $25.55

Biggest Bullish Activity 4.17.2013

bullishPaper Buys 1,000 PDCE Jul 55 Calls for $0.40 (3.3 times usual volume) with stock at 38.67
Paper Sold 155,850 FXI May 35 Puts for $1.03 (4.1 times usual volume) with stock trading at $34.85
Paper Sells 25,000 BHP Aug 50 Puts for $0.70 (5 times usual volume) with stock trading at $63.77
Paper Sold 10,000 ABX Jan 15 Puts for $1.175 (2.1 times usual volume) with stock trading at $18.83
Paper Bought 2,600 MHR Jan 2.5 Calls for $0.70 (7.1 times usual volume) when stock was trading $2.54

Unusual Options Activity 4.17.2013

Down Tick Options SpreadPaper Sold 155850 FXI May 35 Puts for $1.03 (4.1 times usual volume) with stock trading at $34.85
Paper Sold 10000 ABX Jan 15 Puts for $1.175 (2.1 times usual volume) with stock trading at $18.83
Paper Bought 20000 AGNC May 32 Puts for $0.66 (5 times usual volume) with stock trading at $32.08
Paper Sells 25000 BHP Aug 50 Puts for $0.70 (5 times usual volume) with stock trading at $63.77
Paper sells 53810 FXI A[r 38.5 Puts for $3.55 (4.1 times usual volume) with stock at $34.91