ConocoPhillips (COP) to The Long 3.19.2013

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The five-year plan to make this happen is to spend $3 billion on Permian assets; this is projected to add 40,000 barrels of oil per day in production. Not only will this assist with the decline in the base, but it will also produce an impressive 7% annual production growth through 2017. This plan will boost oil production by 45% (30% last year, with 75% projected for 2017).

ConocoPhillips will facilitate this through technology use, by incorporating 4-D seismic, coil tubing, casing, and drilling in their operations to lower their costs. They also intend to bring Alpine West/CD5 satellite into production by 2015-2016, decreasing the costs of the small oil pockets.  Finally, they will use a new product to allow tubing to go in-between the rocks for significant monetary savings.

In the long-term, ConocoPhillips will be a winner. The company is the world’s third largest energy producer, with operations in over thirty countries and approximately 8.4 billion barrel of proven oil reserves.  With their increase in production and reserves, the recent fall in commodity prices has taken its toll.  In response, management sold off assets and decreased inventory.  In 2012 they spun of their downstream assets into a separate company, Phillips 66.  They are now exclusively focused on production growth.

Yesterday, paper bought 15,000 COP March weekly 60 Calls for $.21.  Paper is an
order from a hedge fund, mutual fund, retail bank, or big trader.  I jumped on board and
bought the COP April 60 Calls for $.68

My Trade: Buying the COP April 60 Calls for $.68
Risk: $68 per 1 lot
Reward: Unlimited
Breakeven: $60.68

Greeks of this Trade:
Delta: Long
Gamma: Long
Vega: Long
Theta: Short


Andrew Keene
President/Founder
Andrew@KeeneOnTheMarket.com

 

Biggest Bearish Activity 3.18.2013

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Bear CNBC Day TradingPaper bought 2000 GSM Sep 12.5 Puts for $.70 (6.7 times usual volume) when stock was trading $14.39
Paper bought 473 KCG April 3.5 Puts for $.04 (9.1 times usual volume) when stock was trading $3.73
Paper bought 368 CL May 110 Puts for $2.17 (3.3 times usual volume) when stock was trading $111.95
Paper bought 3071 JNPR May 19 Puts for $.79 (3.9 times usual volume) when stock was trading $20.04
Paper bought 500 ADBE April 40 Puts for $.98 (3.4 times usual volume) when stock was trading $40.95

Biggest Bullish Activity 3.18.2013

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Bull Market Stocks BondsPaper bought 4000 EWM July 15 Calls for $.20 (37.8 times usual volume) when stock was trading $14.30
Paper bought 1241 LCAV Sep 5 Calls for $.35 (116 times usual volume) when stock was trading $3.06
Paper bought 1444 PHHH Jan 2014 25 Calls for $1.40 (5.2 times usual volume) when stock was trading $21.29
Paper bought 1000 ADTN April 22 Calls for $.45 when stock was trading $20.14
Paper bought 700 RMD April 45 Calls for $.675 (4.6 times usual volume) when stock was trading $42.99

Unusual Options Activity Report 3.18.2013

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Chart Emini Fibonacci TradingPaper bought 1241 LCAV Sep 5 Calls for $.35 (116 times usual volume) when stock was trading $3.06
Paper bought 9249 COP March weekly 60 Calls for $.21 (3.1 times usual volume) when stock was trading $59.36
Paper bought 1000 CME April 65 Calls for $.45 when stock was trading $62.62
Paper sold 4800 DNDN Aug 5 Puts for $.72 when stock was trading $5.30
Paper sold 1000 ETFC April 11 Puts for $.61 when stock was trading $10.65

3.18.2013 Opening Bell

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AAPL Update: Mini Options, Technicals, & News (AAPL, QQQ, DELL) 3.18.2013

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Today also was the launch of AAPL mini options. These derivatives are have a 10 multiplier as opposed to the normal 100 multiple. These benefit retail customers given that the cash outlay is lower than normal options and at first glance the bid ask spread is also rather narrow for a new product.  From the prospective of volume, the mini options are gaining interest faster than AVSPY alpha options too.

salernoma@gmail.com

Screen shot 2013-03-18 at 9.23.40 AM

Possible Implications From the Cyprus 'Bailout' 3.18.2013

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Even last year when the European banking system was shaking it was Draghi of the ECB that promised to use and make unlimited resources available in order to buy PIGS-paper. In this ways, savings depositors were calmed as the money at the bank supposedly would be safe. 

It all was until this game-changer of a weekend when they made a kind of decision involving Cyprus, that offset all efforts ands decision makings in the last 2 years. And for what? A silly €5.8 Billion? Like this will create any change? And yes it’s only 6.75% and 9.9%… today! If this is tolerated, what about the future?

What about savers in Greece, Spain and Portugal? I bet you they will be a lot more insecure about their money at the bank! This will have huge implications. With this specific action Europe shows that it is willing to do anything and everything to preserve the Euro. It is because of this action the Euro will be under intense pressure for weeks maybe even months to come.

This will definitely move savings in all kind of directions. My bet a lot of it will flow into real assets, Gold and Silver!

Source: http://www.beurs.com/


Sven Van Tongeren
KOTM Contributor-At-Large
Sven@KeeneOnTheMarket.com