The earnings whisper is currently listed at $0.71 with the street consensus only at $0.65, so many people are not convinced and hopping on the GMCR bandwagon. Think about this fact however, the only major threat to the GMCR produced Keurig coffee maker is the Strabucks Verismo, which has had soft sales at best. Since the debut of the Starbucks machine only 150,000 units have been sold, compared to that of 2.15 million average quarterly units sold of the Keurig. Currently 25 percent of the companies stock has been sold short, but with good earnings a short squeeze could be in effect as bears try and cover their positions before getting hung out to dry.

The stock has also rallied six of the last eight times from earnings and more importantly, three out of four in 2012. The one trend that I have noticed on earnings, is that it either rallies hard to the upside or sells off hard and with that in mind, I can execute a trade that I believe will be profitable. I believe the stock is weighted more to the bullish side, however I always want to define and have proper risk versus reward.

HAS opened at 37.80 and has seen continued bullish activity throughout the day pushing it even farther above the moving averages that range from the 50 day to the 200 day. The earnings whisper is slotted at $1.21 currently, which is a penny higher than the overall street consensus, as investors are concerned with last quarter’s productivity. HAS suffered from lower-than-expected holiday demand and noticeably lower operating margin and return on equity. Revenue estimate of $1.28 billion were released earlier in the year, well below what analysts had expected and earnings estimates were also well below expectations, which sent the stock on a 5% downswing since late January. Other toy companies that have reported already, such as Mattel (MAT), missed the streets expectations and failed to provide sufficient evidence as to growth potential in 2013.

The only “bright spot” for HAS, was the release of a new Monopoly token, the cat, which drew attention to the product and increased chatter on Facebook. Is this really enough to help the stock rebound though? Seeing as how the release of the new Monopoly game with new token, is not set to release until later this year, what conclusions can I draw to make this stock a buy? Going into earnings I feel that the stock will miss its earnings estimates and am looking to position myself to the downside. At this time I DO NOT have a position on in HAS.

ESPN, and largely the cable networks section of DIS, suffered a slight decrease in income as a result of higher programming and production costs, but other sections of cable networks made up for the sporting slack. In the broadcasting section, higher advertising revenues were offset by an increase in primetime network programming costs.

The most iconic part of DIS is arguably the parks and resorts section of the business. Revenues and operating income both increased 7% and 4% respectively for the quarter. According to the release, higher guest spending in domestic operations was offset by lower international operations.

DIS seems to be the king of brand recognition. Robert Iger, DIS CEO, puts it plainly in their latest quarterly release. “Our ongoing success is driven by our long-term strategy, the strength in our brands and businesses, and our high quality family entertainment.” This is evident by the continued investment in iconic brands; like the recently announced Star Wars movies.

The technical prospective is mixed. The 50 DMA is about to cross above the 100 DMA, but today’s candle may turn out to be a reversal bar and gap fill lower.

The analyst community has shifted their ratings around this morning too. CS (Credit Suisse) maintained an outperform rating, but raised their price target (PT) to $61 or about 11% from current prices. Nomura also kept their buy rating on shares and followed suit in raising their PT, but to $62.

salerno.mark.a@gmail.com

Paper bought 1000 NBG Feb 2 Puts for $.50 (2.3 times usual volume) when stock was trading $1.55
Paper bought 21,298 XLU March 35 Puts for $.15 when stock was trading $36.61
Paper bought 980 SN Feb 20 Puts for $.75 (2.6 times usual volume) when stock was trading $20.01
Paper bought 10,000 ALU Feb 1.5 Puts for $.05 (2.2 times usual volume) when stock was tradig $1.73
Paper bought 700 DLPH March 37.5 Puts for $.60 when stock was trading $39.17

Paper bought 2194 THOR March 40 Calls for $.75 (22.9 times usual volume) when stock was trading $36.90
Paper bought 700 NYT Feb 9 Calls for $.09 (6.9 times usual volume) when stock was trading $8.18
Paper bought 800 CXO March 95 Calls for $1.90 (2.3 times usual volume) when stock was trading $90.20
Paper bought 2740 ETP Sep 50 Calls (2.6 times usual volume) when stock was trading $45.67
Paper bought 3600 BRE April 50 Calls for $.725 (9.2 times usual volume) when stock was trading $47.62

Paper bought 1000 GOOG Jan 2014 800-900 Bull Call Spread for $23.50 when stock was trading $768.19
Paper bought 8000 ECA Feb 19 Calls for $.45 (6.0 times usual volume) when stock was trading $19.02
Paper bought 26,015 EA March 17 Calls for $.44 (7.4 times usual volume) when stock was trading $16.38
Paper bought ELLI July 20 Calls for $3.30 (3.7 times usual volume) when stock was trading $19.02
Paper sold FTK June 15 Calls and Bought FTK March 15 Calls for $.55 credit when stock was trading $13.97

It seems as though insiders and those familiar with the matter have had reality show like loose lips, for the market seemed to be expecting a deal.  The current discount however represents a plethora of risks to the situation. Many sources are disappointed with the proposed price, so their vote could be a risk.

The upside includes the potential for the go-shop period to play out. The go-shop process provides an opportunity to determine if there are alternatives offers superior to the one presented from Mr. Dell and Silver Lake for the firm out there. This period of time is 45 days. 

The transaction is valued at approximately $24 B. $13.65 represents a premium of 25 percent over Dell’s closing share price of $10.88 on Jan. 11, 2013, the last trading day before rumors of a possible going-private transaction were first released; a premium of approximately 35 percent over Dell’s enterprise value as of Jan. 11, 2013.

Mr. Dell, who owns approximately 14 percent of Dell’s common shares, will continue to lead the company as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.

salerno.mark.a@gmail.com