NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) Earnings Preview

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NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is engaged in visual computing, enabling individuals to interact with digital ideas, data and entertainment of branded products and services offering processors to original equipment manufacturers. The stock is currently trading around $20.33 at the middle end of its 52 week range of $16.77-$23.60. The stock has been performing inline with the market this year rallying 1.7% year to date. NVDA is scheduled to report earnings after the closing bell today, and the stock is down $0.25 or 1.21% on the session ahead of the close.

Over the past 11 quarters NVDA has rallied on earnings day 7 times with an average move of 4.49%. The stock appears slightly bullish on a chart going into the release having traded below the Ichimoku Cloud since July, but rising up to the cloud on the daily bars. Over the past 11 quarters NVDA has rallied on earnings day to the nearest expiration 7 times with an average move of 4.92%. Investors are mainly focused upon the newly announced acquisition of TransGaming Inc.’s proprietary cross-platform portability technology to expand the gaming sector of the company. The company has also experienced increasing revenue, but not enough to keep up with the consensus mark. With the stock trading below the cloud, great earnings history and mixed news it is hard to justify anything but a long or short position in NVDA.

The options market is currently implying a move of around $1.53 or 7.5% in NVDA by the end of this week giving us targets of $18.80 and $21.86.

Trade: Sell this week’s 19-20.5-22-20.5 Iron Butterfly for $0.98
Risk: $52 per lot
Reward: $98 per lot
Break Even: $19.52 and $21.48

A Preview of Tesla Motors Inc. (TSLA) Ahead of the Release After the Bell

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Tesla Motors Inc. (TSLA) designs, develops, manufactures and sells electric vehicles, electric vehicle power train components and stationary energy storage systems. The stock is currently trading around $266.10 at the upper end of its 52 week range of $181.40-$291.42. The stock has been out performing the market this year rallying 19.63% year to date. TSLA is scheduled to report earnings after the closing bell today, and the stock is down $0.18 or 0.07% on the session ahead of the close.

Over the past 11 quarters TSLA has rallied on earnings day 6 times with an average move of 8.71%. The stock appears very bullish on a chart going into the release having traded above the Ichimoku Cloud since mid April on the daily bars. Over the past 11 quarters TSLA has rallied on earnings day to the nearest expiration 7 times with an average move of 10.09%. Investors are mainly focused on updates on the new Model X’s time line plays out. The investors are overly bearish predicting a 60 cent loss. With the stock trading above the cloud, great earnings history and a new car in the lineup it is hard to justify anything but a long position in TSLA.

The options market is currently implying a move of around $21.30 or 8% in TSLA by the end of this week giving us targets of $244.80 and $287.40.

Trade: Buy this week’s 282.5-285 Vertical call spread for $0.60
Risk: $60 per lot
Reward: $190 per lot
Break Even: $283.10

A Look at Keurig Green Mountain Inc. Before Earnings (GMCR)

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Keurig Green Mountain Inc. (GMCR) is a specialty coffee and coffeemaker business in the United States and Canada selling Keurig Single Cup Brewers and Arabica bean coffees, including Fair Trade Certified, certified organic and flavored. The stock is currently trading around $75.82 at the lower end of its 52 week range of $68.72-$158.87. The stock has been under performing the market this year falling 42.74% year to date. GMCR is scheduled to report earnings after the closing bell today, and the stock is down $0.77 or 1.01% on the session ahead of the close.

Over the past 8 quarters GMCR has rallied on earnings day 3 times with an average move of 10.0%. The stock appears very bearish on a chart going into the release having traded below the Ichimoku Cloud for the past 6 months on the daily bars. Investors are mainly hoping to see higher sales in the hyped Keurig 2.0 brewer. The pods consumers have been using for so long are not compatible with this brewer and allows only for license K-Cup pods. With the stock trading below the cloud, bad earnings history and poor sales on the newest brewer it is hard to justify anything but a short position in GMCR.

The options market is currently implying a move of around $7.17 or 9.5% in GMCR by the end of this week giving us targets of $68.65 and $82.99.

Trade: Buy this week’s 70-69 Vertical put spread for $0.24
Risk: $24 per lot
Reward: $76 per lot
Break Even: $69.76

Dreamworks Animation SKG, Inc. (DWA) to Release Earnings After the Bell

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Dreamworks Animation SKG, Inc. (DWA) is creates and exploits branded family entertainment, including animated feature films, television series and specials, live entertainment properties and related consumer products. The stock is currently trading around $23.78 at the lower end of its 52 week range of $18.16-$29.75. The stock has been out performing the market this year rallying 6.45% year to date. DWA is scheduled to report earnings after the closing bell today, and the stock is down $0.03 or 0.13% on the session ahead of the close.

Over the past 12 quarters DWA has rallied on earnings day 5 times with an average move of 9.14%. The stock appears bearish on a chart going into the release having fallen through the Ichimoku Cloud and continued trading below the cloud in the past month on the daily bars. Over the past 12 quarters DWA has rallied on earnings day to the nearest expiration 5 times with an average move of 10.82%. Investors are mainly watching to see how the top line performs due to foreign currency movements and the bottom line impacted by costs associated with the expansion of the Awesomeness-TV operations. With the stock trading below the cloud, disappointing earnings history and high costs it is hard to justify anything but a short position in DWA.

The options market is currently implying a move of around $1.7 or 7.2% in DWA by the end of this week giving us targets of $22.08 and $25.48.

Trade: Buy this week’s 23-22 Vertical put spread for $0.28
Risk: $28 per lot
Reward: $72 per lot
Break Even: $22.72

A Look at Priceline Group Inc. (PCLN) Ahead of Earnings

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Priceline Group Inc. (PCLN) is a provider of online travel and travel related reservation and search services through its online travel agent services, connecting consumers wishing to make travel reservations with providers of travel services across the world. The stock is currently trading around $1,256.04 at the upper end of its 52 week range of $990.69-$1329.90. The stock has been out performing the market this year rallying 10.24% year to date. PCLN is scheduled to report earnings before the opening bell tomorrow, and the stock is up $15.56 or 1.21% on the session ahead of the close.

Over the past 11 quarters PCLN has rallied on earnings day 9 times with an average move of 5.19%. The stock appears bullish on a chart going into the release having ripped through the Ichimoku Cloud and continued trading above the cloud in the past month on the daily bars. Over the past 11 quarters PCLN has rallied on earnings day to the nearest expiration 8 times with an average move of 5.17%. Investors are mainly watching to see how the company performs due to increased travel during Summer. With the stock trading above the cloud, incredible earnings history and increased travel it is hard to justify anything but a long position in PCLN.

The options market is currently implying a move of around $81.8 or 6.5% in PCLN by the end of this week giving us targets of $1,174.24 and $1,337.84.

Trade: Buy this week’s 1,332.5-1,335 Vertical call spread for $0.50
Risk: $50 per lot
Reward: $200 per lot
Break Even: $1,333

A Look at Zoetis Inc. (ZTS) Ahead of Earnings

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Zoetis, Inc. (ZTS) is engaged in the discovery, development, manufacture and commercialization of animal health medicines and vaccines, with a focus on both livestock and companion animals across the Americas, Europe, Africa and Asia. The stock is currently trading around $48.71 at the upper end of its 52 week range of $31.67-$55.38. The stock has been out performing the market this year rallying 13.18% year to date. ZTS is scheduled to report earnings before the opening bell tomorrow, and the stock is down $0.26 or 0.53% on the session ahead of the close.

Over the past 8 quarters ZTS has rallied on earnings day 3 times with an average move of 2.01%. The stock appears bullish on a chart going into the release having traded above the Ichimoku Cloud and diving to trade below the cloud in the past month on the daily bars. Over the past 8 quarters ZTS has rallied on earnings day to the nearest expiration 4 times with an average move of 2.58%. Investors are mainly watching to see how the company performs after the acquisition of Abbott Laboratories. With the stock trading below the cloud, bad earnings history and a strengthening acquisition it is hard to justify anything but a short position in ZTS.

The options market is currently implying a move of around $2.73 or 5.6% in ZTS by the end of this week giving us targets of $45.98 and $51.44.

Trade: Buy this week’s 47.5-46 Vertical put spread for $0.45
Risk: $0.45
Reward: $105
Break Even: $47.05

CVS Health Corp. Preview (CVS) Ahead of Earnings

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CVS Health Corp. (CVS) together with its subsidiaries, is a pharmacy company operating through three business segments: Pharmacy Services, Retail Pharmacy and Corporate. The stock is currently trading around $113.17 at the upper end of its 52 week range of $74.69-$113.65. The stock has been out performing the market this year rallying 17.44% year to date. CVS is scheduled to report earnings before the opening bell tomorrow, and the stock is down $0.69 or 0.61% on the session ahead of the close.

Over the past 11 quarters CVS has rallied on earnings day 8 times with an average move of 1.85%. The stock appears very bullish on a chart going into the release having traded above the Ichimoku Cloud since mid-June on the daily bars. Over the past 11 quarters CVS has rallied on to the nearest options expiration 8 times with an average move of 3.2%. Investors are mostly watching how the newly opened stores are operating after seeing increased sales. The ExtraCare Rewards Program and newly launched beauty elevation program will drive growth. With the stock trading above the cloud, great earnings history and positive growth with new stores it is hard to justify anything but a long position in TSN.

The options market is currently implying a move of around $3.36 or 3.0% in CVS by the end of this week giving us targets of $109.79 and $116.51.

Trade: Buy this week’s 115-117 Vertical call spread for $0.51
Risk: $51 per lot
Reward: $149 per lot
Breakeven: $115.51

A Preview of Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN) Ahead of Earnings

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Tyson Foods, Inc. (AMGN) is a food product company operating in five continued segments: Chicken, Beef, Pork, Prepared Foods, and International. The stock is currently trading around $44.61 at the upper end of its 52 week range of $36.12-$45.10. The stock has been out performing the market this year rallying 11.27% year to date. TSN is scheduled to report earnings on Monday before the opening bell, and the stock is down $0.23 or 0.52% on the session ahead of the close.

Over the past 8 quarters TSN has rallied on earnings day 6 times with an average move of 4.7%. The stock appears very bullish on a chart going into the release having traded above the Ichimoku Cloud since mid-April on the daily bars. Investors are mostly watching how company’s profits are effected after a bird flu wiped out millions of chickens. strong momentum in most business segments drove sales and helped post modest results in the past few quarters and is expected to continue this trend. Corn prices are at a record low helping with margins of the company. With the stock trading way above the cloud, great earnings history and overly bearish investors it is hard to justify anything but a long position in TSN.

The options market is currently implying a move of around $2.50 or 5.6% in TSN by August 21st giving us targets of $42.11 and $47.11.

Public-Private Disconnect

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I love puzzles… crosswords, sudoku, solitaire. Theyʼre fun, challenging and sometimes you even find the solution. If only we could say the same of economics.

Today the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released preliminary data indicating the economy grew 2.3 percent in the first quarter, well ahead of the sluggish 0.6 gain in the first quarter. This is clearly welcome news, yet completely opposite the negative aggregate 2Q sales reported thus far by 324 companies in the S&P 500.

IAPublicPrivate-1

Wells Fargo Chief Economist John Silvia explains the divergence as a split level economy. Whereas “Consumer spending led the second quarter… and residential investment also came in strong… structures and equipment spending remain a drag.” In other words, people are spending but businesses arenʼt.

Thereʼs a secondary explanation as well. Total consumer spending (ex-health care) accounts for 56 percent of U.S. GDP, but consumer sector stocks only make up 23 percent of the S&P 500 Index. So the robust buying cited by Dr. Silvia has a lesser weighting in overall corporate earnings data than in the governmentʼs GDP figures. Puzzle solved!

We see two messages here:

  • For CEOs, celebrate your sales growth and boldface the figures across the top of your earnings release. Your growth distinguishes you.
  • For investors, focus only on those companies demonstrating top line success, and since the market has run over three years without a 10 percent correction, avoid high P/E stocks.

Applying this logic to the S&P 500 Index, we identify ten companies growing sales at least 20 percent, and trading with a Price to Earnings ratio under 17x (the current market average). We would also note the group is up 17 percent YTD, well ahead of the broader index. Apple Inc. (AAPL), Avago Technologies Limited (AVGO), D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI), Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD), Laboratory Corp. of America Holdings (LH), Mallinckrodt (MNK), Mylan N.V. (MYL), Signet Jewelers Limited (SIG), Skyworks Solutions Inc. (SWKS), Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. (ZBH).

Amgen Inc. (AMGN) Earnings Preview

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Amgen Inc. (AMGN) is a biotechnology company engaged in discovering, developing, manufacturing and delivering human therapeutics to pharmaceutical wholesale distributors in the United States and Europe. The stock is currently trading around $171.17 at the upper end of its 52 week range of $124.76-$174.80. The stock has been out performing the market this year rallying 6.61% year to date. AMGN is scheduled to report earnings after the closing bell today, and the stock is down $0.30 or 0.17% on the session ahead of the close.

Over the past 12 quarters AMGN has rallied on earnings day 6 times with an average move of 3.38%. The stock appears to make no stable trend on a chart going into the release having broken through the upside of the Ichimoku Cloud in late July on the daily bars. Over the past 12 quarters AMGN has rallied on earnings day to expiration 7 times with an average move of 4.01%. Investors are hoping for another surprise since the average earnings surprise over the last four quarters is 13.98% as well as increasing sales due to orders from major institutions. With the stock trading way above the cloud, good earnings history and strong sales support it is hard to justify anything but a long position in AMGN.

The options market is currently implying a move of around $6.37 or 3.7% in AMGN by this Friday’s close giving us targets of $164.80 and $177.54.

Trade: Buy this week’s 175-177.5 Vertical call spread for $0.62
Risk: $62 per lot
Reward: $1.88 per lot
Break Even: $175.62