American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO) is a global retailer for clothing and personal care products. The stock is currently trading at the upper end of its 52 week range of $10.12-$18.12 around $15.68. The stock has been trading strongly this year relative to the market with shares appreciating around 13% year to date. AEO is scheduled to report earnings before the bell tomorrow, and the stock is looking fairly weak ahead of the release. AEO is lower on the session by around 1.9% ahead of the report.

The stock is likely lower today due to American Eagle’s weak historical record on earnings day. Over the past 12 quarters AEO has sold off on earnings day 8 times with an average move of 8.17%. The stock has also sold off 7 times in 12 quarters from earnings day to the nearest options expiration. AEO also appears very weak on a chart going into the release. The stock is trading at the bottom of the Ichimoku Cloud on the daily bar, and looks as if it could break to the downside in today’s session. Due to the stock’s historical performance on earnings day and weak technical data, it is hard to justify anything but a bearish trade in AEO.

The options market is currently implying a move of around $1.45 or 9.1% in AEO by this Friday’s close giving us a downside target around $14.23.

Potential Bearish Earnings Trade: Buying the AEO May 22nd Weekly 15-14 Put Spreads for $0.25
Risk: $25 per 1 lot
Reward: $75 per 1 lot
Breakeven: $14.75

Itʼs who you know.

Experience has taught us friends and supporters are far more effective at opening doors than smarts and hard work alone. True, substance matters, but only if the right people are listening.

Itʼs why Kremlin-controlled OAO Gazprombank has paid $300,000 to the lobbying firm of Former Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott since Russian sanctions began last year, according to Bloomberg News. Likewise, foreign governments have accounted for one-third of donations exceeding $1 million to The Clinton Foundation, as reported by The Washington Post. Again, who you know makes a difference.

The Center for Responsive Politics (https://www.opensecrets.org/lobby/) tracks data published by the Senate Office of Public Records and lists 11,800 registered lobbyists which collected $3.24B in 2014. While only a fraction compared to the $540 billion spent globally on advertising (CMO Council data), lobbying targets influencers and Wall Street has started paying attention.

Strategas Research Partners has created a proprietary list of the 50 companies in the S&P 500 Index which “exhibit the greatest lobbying intensity” in Washington (click here for a ranking of actual lobbying dollars spent by company https://www.opensecrets.org/lobby/top.php?indexType=s&showYear=2015). Policy expert Dan Clifton rebalances his list each year and since 2002, these companies have outperformed the broader index nearly three to one. Wall Street rewards companies with an edge, especially when the edge involves friends in high places.

As weʼd expect, healthcare companies account for one fifth of the group, though industrials command the top spot at 28 percent. As Dan notes to clients, involvement of U.S. multinationals industrials this year likely reflects a congressional agenda tilted towards highway funding and trade, including potential Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) for the President and the much-discussed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Dual Republican control has also expedited debate.

The message to companies is clear: If public policy affects your business, hire a lobbyist and make sure you tell Wall Street. Explain why you’ve hired a lobbyist, what you expect to accomplish, and how it will impact your growth. Who you know matters.

Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (BBBY) closed today’s trading session around $73.35, gaining just over 5.3% on the day. BBBY has been trading in a 52 week range of $54.96-$79.64. The stock has been underperforming the market this year with shares falling by 3.7% year to date. Although investors may be unhappy with the stock’s performance this year options traders were able to clean up today as the stock ripped after some bullish unusual options activity it the tape.

Earlier this morning a trader bought 1,418 BBBY May 70.5 calls for $0.46 when the stock was trading $70.77. Over 4,700 contracts traded on this line as the stock ripped to session highs of $73.55. These calls exploded in value as the stock moved higher and traded as high as $2.81 on the day. This move happened in a matter of hours and the position expired on the close today. The calls closed only slightly off of their highs at $2.68. This means that a trader that bought these calls would have seen their position increase in value by a factor of 6. This is another example of a blowout UOA trade.

Trade: A Trader bought 1,418 BBBY May 70.5 calls for $0.46
Risk: $46 per 1 lot
Reward: Unlimited
Breakeven: $70.96

If a trader would have bought a 20 lot of these calls, risking $920, they would have profited
$4,700 at the highs.

Youku Tudou Inc.(YOKU) is a Chinese based internet television company that allows users to share video content on a broad range of devices. The company’s stock is currently trading around $22.85 in a 52 week range of $11.85-$24.60. The stock has been massively outperforming the market this year with shares rallying over 28% year to date. Options activity in the name today seems to suggest that traders are expecting this run higher to continue.

Earlier in today’s session several large blocks of calls were bought in YOKU. A trader bought nearly 3,000 YOKU May 22nd Weekly 22 calls for $1.04. Shortly after that order hit the tape another block of 1,000 YOKU May 22 calls were bought for $0.20. By the end of the day over 8.4 times YOKU’s average daily options volume had traded and at the money implied volatility touched new 52 week highs.

YOKU stock ripped higher after these calls were bought and gained over 17% on the trading day. These calls moved higher as well with the May 22nd Weekly 22 calls trading as high as $2.00 on the day and the May 22 calls trading as high as $0.95 making both of these trades absolute blowout winners. These trades are amazing examples of how following unusual options activity in weekly and short expiration options can lead to huge profits.

Credit Suisse Group AG (CS) is currently trading around $27.00 in a 52 week range of $21.01-$30.84. The stock has been performing relatively well this year with shares rallying more than 7.5% year to date. CS saw some interesting unusual options activity in today’s session and traders quick enough to follow it saw some very nice profits.

Early in the session a trader bought 1,100 CS Jun 27 Calls for $0.75. By the end of the day nearly 12,000 contracts traded on that line and nearly 5 times the average daily options volume in CS had come across the tape. The stock moved to the upside after these calls hit and the calls did as well. At the highs of the session these calls traded as high as $0.90 on the day making this a very profitable trade in a short period of time. With CS trading well above the cloud and showing other bullish momentum metrics it seems likely that this trend will continue.

Trade: A trader bought 1,100 CS Jun 27 Calls for $0.75
Risk: $75 per 1 lot
Reward: Unlimited
Breakeven: $27.75

This trade may not be an absolute blowout winner but a trader that bought a 20 lot of these calls would have profited $300 at the highs on $1500 in risk. That’s a 20% profit on risk in a matter of hours.

Zillow Group, Inc. (Z) is an online real estate services business that seeks to connect consumers with professionals online. The company’s stock is currently trading around $96.90 in a 52 week range of $81.07-$164.90. The stock has been relatively weak this year with shares falling around 6.8% year to date. Z is set to report earnings after the bell today and the stock is looking weak ahead of the release. Z stock is lower on the session by around 1.8% ahead of the report.

The stock is likely under pressure due to Zillow’s dismal historical performance record on earnings day. Over the past 12 quarters Z has sold off on earnings day 8 times with an average move of 8.08%. The stock has also sold of 8 times in 12 quarters from earnings day to options expiration. Z also looks very weak on a chart. The stock is trading well below the Ichimoku Cloud on the daily bar, and both major moving averages are well below the cloud. With a bearish historical performance record and a weak technical setup it is difficult to justify anything but a short in Z.

The options market is currently implying a move of around $7.00 in Z by this Friday’s close giving us a downside target around $89.90.

Potential Bearish Earnings Trade: Buying the Z May 94-90-86 Put Fly for $0.65
Risk: $65 per 1 lot
Reward: $335 per 1 lot
Breakeven: $93.35 and $86.65

This trade offers a better than 5-1 reward to risk setup and profits near its maximum at the measured move target.

Waste Management, Inc. (WM) closed today’s session at $49.43 trading higher by only $0.10 on the day. The stock has been trading in a 52 week range of $43.24-$55.93 and has underperforming this year with shares falling buy over 3.7% year to date. The stock closed little changed today but there was a very interesting options trade that hit the tape early on in the session.

Early this morning, roughly 40 minutes after the open, a trader bought 4,217 WM May 50 calls for $0.20. By the end of the day over 15,000 contracts traded on this line driving options volume to 10 times the average daily volume in WM. As soon as these options hit the tape shares of WM began rallying trading as high as $49.90 on the day. These calls ripped higher with the stock doubling in value within minutes and trading as high as $0.45 on the session. A trader who bought these calls would have seen them double in value in about 2 minutes time. This is a great example of how unusual options activity in front month options can be traded for quick profits.

Trade: A trader bought 4,217 WM May 50 calls for $0.20
Risk: $20 per 1 lot
Reward: Unlimited
Breakeven: $50.20

If a trader bought a 20 lot of these calls they would have profited $500 at the highs on only $400 in risk. An absolute blowout winner.

AOL Inc. (AOL) is a media and technology company with a worldwide audience. The company’s stock is currently trading around $43.80 in a 52 week range of $33.20-$49.86. The stock is ripping higher today with shares rallying by more than 11% on the session. AOL is rallying on the release of the company’s most recent quarterly earnings where AOL beat consensus estimates on both top and bottom lines.

Analysts were expecting earnings of $0.32 per share on revenues of $594.6 million. Earnings came at $0.34 per share on revenues of $625.1 million. Ahead of the release market makers were implying a move of $3.50 my today’s close, implying an upside target in AOL of $43.20. I used this target to set up an options trade in AOL.

My Trade: I bought the AOL May 8th Weekly 42.5-43.5 Call Spreads for $0.25
Risk: $25 per 1 lot
Reward: $75 per 1 lot
Breakeven: $42.75

This trade offered a 3-1 reward to risk ratio and with stock at current levels is working out very well. I sold half of my position for a double this morning and if stock remains at these levels I will net the maximum value of $1.00 for this spread at the close, quadrupling my money overnight. This is a great example of how using the measured move target to set up options spreads ahead of earnings is the best way to calculate targets. This spread expires today so no matter what happens I will be out of the trade after today.

Ryland Group Inc (RYL) is a homebuilder with operations in the United States. RYL stock is currently trading around $41.67 in a 52 week range of $30.33-$49.66. The stock has been performing relatively well this year with shares rallying just over 7.8% year to date. The stock is seeing a nice move higher today as shares rally by nearly 3% on the session. On this move higher we are seeing some very bullish unusual options activity indicating that traders believe this move will continue.

Earlier this morning a trader bought 4,331 RYL Jun 42 Calls for $1.40. RYL has traded over 7.1 times its average daily options volume today and nearly 8,000 contracts have now traded on that line. This block of calls in RYL also represents a more than $600,000 bet on further upside in RYL. After these calls hit the tape RYL saw a pop higher and these calls moved higher with the stock. These calls have already traded as high as $1.64 on the day making this a very profitable trade.

Trade: A trader bought 4,331 RYL Jun 42 Calls for $1.40
Risk: $140 per 1 lot
Reward: Unlimited
Breakeven: $43.40

If a trader bought a 20 lot of these calls they would have profited $480 at the highs in a matter of minutes.

Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) is a manufacturer of electric vehicles and electric vehicle components. The company’s stock is currently trading around $230.70 in a 52 week range of $117.22-$291.42. The stock has been relatively flat this year with shares rallying only 3.7% year to date. TSLA is set to report their most recent quarterly earnings today after the bell.

TSLA has rallied on earnings day 7 of the past 12 quarters with an average earnings day move of 8.71%. The stock has only managed to rally from earnings day to options expiration 6 of the past 12 quarters with an average move of 10.12%. Market makers are currently implying a move of $17.40 by this week’s expiration, pricing in a 7.5% move by this Friday’s close. This implied move can be used to calculate an upside target of $248.10 by Friday.

With TSLA shares trading above the cloud and a slight bullish bias in its historical performance record let’s look at how a trader can get long TSLA without risking the capital required to trade the stock. Let’s look at 3 different options strategies.

Trade: Buying the TSLA May 8th Weekly 240-250 Call Spreads for $2.80
Risk: $280 per 1 lot
Reward: $720 per 1 lot
Breakeven: $242.80

This trade offers a reward to risk ratio of better than 2.5-1 and sees maximum profits above $250 on expiration.

Trade: Buying the TSLA May 8th Weekly 240-250-260 Call Fly for $1.45
Risk: $145 per 1 lot
Reward: $855 per 1 lot
Breakeven: $241.45 and $258.55

This trade offers a better reward to risk ratio than the long call spread but will not profit if the stock rallies too much and trades above the upside breakeven point.

Trade: Selling the TSLA May 8th Weekly 230-220 Put Spreads for $4.00
Risk: $600 per 1 lot
Reward: $400 per 1 lot
Breakeven: $226.00

This trade has the worst reward to risk ration but will profit if TSLA rallies, stays flat, or even sells off some.
These 3 options trades all offer better reward to risk setups that trading the underlying stock and allow a trader to take a view on TSLA ahead of earnings in a low risk high reward setup.