We are not fond of excuses. A fumble is a fumble, regardless of whether the ball is wet. The bigger question is how to recover and resume the offensive.

If we sound a bit harsh, we promise we’re only preparing ourselves for the inevitable onslaught of CEOs blaming first quarter earnings disappointments on “currency headwinds” and “record snowstorms.” Negativity has hit a five-year high, as 84 of the 101 companies in the S&P 500 Index offering guidance this quarter have lowered estimates. Historically the gloom crew has accounted for 69 percent of pre-announcements, according to data compiled by FactSet.

Recent economic data paints a similar picture. From the lowest rate of job creation in sixteen months, to weaker than expected Durable Goods purchases by consumes and similarly disappointing Capital Goods orders by corporations, the U.S. economy has stumbled upon a slow patch. For the first time since the third quarter of 2012, quarterly earnings are forecast to decline compared to the same year earlier.

Thankfully, global investors have global central banks on their side. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William C. Dudley offered his own reassurances Monday morning at a speech in Newark NJ. Referring to an eventual normalization of rates above zero, he said “The path will be relatively shallow… as headwinds in the aftermath of the financial crisis are still in evidence.”

His calming remarks lifted equity futures nearly a percent. True, continued Fed “vigilance” argues for maintaining long positions, though we also argue investors should become more selective. Even with central banks at the ready, soft patches can get messy.

So today we set our sights on quality and consistency. First, we selected only the top 20% highest rated companies in the S&P large and mid-cap indices. Second, we screened for reported sales growth in 2014 of at least 15 percent, and estimated sales growth in 2015 of 20 percent (implying fundamental acceleration). Third, we considered just those companies whose consensus estimates have risen during the past four weeks. 18 companies of a possible 900 made the cut and collectively they are up 10.2 percent this year, well ahead of the broad marketʼs 2 percent gain.

Actavis plc (ACT); Alexander & Baldwin, Inc. (ALEX); Avago Technologies Limited (AVGO); Biogen Inc. (BIIB); Celgene Corporation (CELG); Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG); Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH); Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD); Gulfport Energy Corp. (GPOR); The Hain Celestial Group, Inc. (HAIN); Red Hat, Inc. (RHAT); Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (REGN); Signature Bank (SBNY); Skyworks Solutions Inc. (SWKS); SolarWinds , inc. (SWI); Solera Holdings Inc. (SLH); The Ultimate Software Group, Inc. (ULTI); United Natural Foods, Inc. (UNFI)

All sales of the Apple Watch have been blocked in the country of Switzerland due to apparent patent violations. A patent was filed in 1985 for the word “Apple” on a watch, this is what Apple Inc. is supposedly in violation of. Apparently the Swiss watch industry is not very excited about the idea of high end wearable tech. Aside from this issue, which will likely be resolved come launch time, optimism over the release of the Apple Watch has been somewhat hard to come by. Citi has released new research showing that the majority of runners that currently use wearable tech would not consider switching to the Apple Watch.

So if the release of the Apple Watch is representing a big point of uncertainty and risk how can a trader play it with options. As always a trader is actually able to lower their overall risk exposure using options over the underlying stock. This is true for both long and short setups so let’s examine two different trades in AAPL using options.

Apple Inc. (AAPL) is currently trading around $127.00 in a 52 week range of $73.05-$133.60. The stock has been very strong this year with shares rallying more than 15% year to date on the back of record breaking iPhone sales numbers. With stock near all-time highs investors are now looking to the watch for the next leg of growth. So how can a trader get long AAPL using options while also lowering their risk?

Let’s look at a long stock replacement strategy:

Trade: Buying the Jan 2016 110 Calls for $21.50
Risk: $2150 per 1 lot
Reward: Unlimited
Breakeven: $131.50

This trade gives a trader exposure to AAPL through January expiration and has a breakeven just above the stock’s current price, but what is a trader wanted to get short? A trader can use a similar concept to run a short stock replacement strategy. This allows a trader to get short AAPL without the unlimited risk associated with naked short stock.

Trade: Buying the AAPL Jan 2016 150 Puts for $28.00
Risk: $28 per 1 lot
Reward: $12,200
Breakeven: $122.00

This trade has a lower breakeven point that outright short stock but has a defined level of risk and gets a trader short through the end of the year.

GoDaddy Inc (GDDY) is a technology company that operates a web domain marketplace. The stock made its public debut today opening much higher than the $17-$19 expected range. The stock is currently trading north of $26 as investors seem to be flocking to the newly listed stock. After IPO day will GDDY stock still be a buy?

GoDaddy Inc will likely face stiff competition from players like Amazon and Goolge but GDDY is a very established name in the space. GoDaddy Inc has over 13 million customers in countries around the world. Currently GoDaddy Inc manages nearly 60 million domains and has been seeing red hot revenue growth over the past 3 years. Revenues have grown over 50% over that time period and ventures into new products and services is likely to drive further growth for GDDY.

GDDY has begun offering a range of new services to new and existing customers. Customers can now purchase email domains, a suite of eCommerce tools, and many other products and services geared towards small businesses. This array of new services could help drive revenue growth in the future for GDDY.

Despite a great initial offering and a range of new services that could drive growth I would not want to play GDDY until the options list. Options always offer a trader a better risk vs. reward setup so for me the play is to wait for a few weeks and then play it via options. This also allows for the Ichimoku Cloud to develop on shorter time frames. I think GDDY will be a strong stock in 2015 but will wait for the options.

The fast food giant will begin offering all day breakfast at stores in San Diego next month. McDonald’s will be testing this new concept in San Diego stores to determine if this is something they would want to launch in broader markets. The move may be an attempt to stave off competition in the breakfast space from other chains like Taco Bell, who began offering breakfast items last year.

McDonald’s stock has been stagnant over the past 12 months, rallying only 0.3% over that time, as the company faces declining revenues and net income. Lower sales in the U.S. and currency headwinds abroad have weighed on the EPS of McDonald’s over the past 12 months. On the back of this disappointing year McDonald’s CEO Don Thompson stepped down and chief brand officer Steve Easterbrook was named his replacement.

The new CEO faces some serious challenges of declining sales and changing consumer tastes. This new market taste may be an effort to change things up at McDonald’s but will it be enough? Analysts at Bank of America have a $112 price target for the stock, a 14% premium from current levels, indicating that expectations for the new CEO are high. So if a trader wanted to play McDonald’s to the long side is there a way they can do it more efficiently with options?
With shares of McDonald’s Corp. (MCD) trading around $98.30 a trader can look to put on a trade known as a stock replacement strategy. With the options market implying a move of around $8.80 by September expiration an upside target of $107.10 can be calculated and used to set up a trade.

Trade: Buying the MCD Sep 90 Calls for $9.70
Risk: $970 per 1 lot
Reward: Unlimited
Breakeven: $99.70

This trade has a breakeven only $1.40 above the stock’s current price and is deep in the money so it will have a very similar P&L profile to a long stock position. This allows a trader to enter a position for much less capital than would be required for outright long stock.

Amazon.com, Inc.(AMZN) has announced that it will be launching a new service, Amazon Home Services, that will allow customers to shop and purchase different professional services such as housekeeping, plumbing, handiwork, and other professional services. Initially there will be 700 different services offered via the new marketplace. As convenient as this new service may be for Amazon shoppers investors are still wondering if this will help spur the next leg of growth for the online giant.

AMZN stock has been somewhat stagnant since gapping higher on last earnings and the stock hasn’t made a new 52 week high since January of 2014. Investors are looking for the next phase of growth in AMZN but the company’s more recent investments in same day delivery services, brick and mortar locations, and other low margin operations have yet to show investors what they are looking for. Is this venture into a professional services marketplace the answer to the growth question?

AMZN faces competition in this space but the players that are already established are dwarfed by the size of AMZN so this could position Amazon well. If a trader thought that this new service will boost growth for Amazon how could they get long without deploying all of the capital needed to buy the stock?

AMZN is currently trading around $374 in a 52 week range of $284-$389.37. The stock gapped higher on earnings and is up just over 20% this year so a trader may want to use a stock replacement strategy to get long AMZN. Let’s see how that breaks down.

Trade: Buying the AMZN Jul 340 Calls for $44.00
Risk: $4400 per 1 lot
Reward: Unlimited
Breakeven: $384.00

This is a lot of premium but it lets a trader get long AMZN with a P&L profile very similar to the underlying stock without having to tie up as much margin.

An explosion yesterday in Manhattan is responsible for injuring 30 people and the collapse of a building in NYC’s East Village neighborhood. The explosion and resulting fires destroyed four buildings before being extinguished. As the story developed yesterday Consolidated Edison, Inc. (ED) stock sold off hard on reports that crews were working on a gas line in the building the day of the explosion.

ED stock sold off nearly 3% from open to close yesterday as news of the explosion and its possible causes continued to hit the tape. This move lower perhaps was perhaps overdone as today shares are recovering in a relatively flat market. Shares of ED are currently trading at $60.20 and are higher by 2.41% today but have yet to take back all of yesterday’s losses. So how can a trader play a possible recovery or further downside using options?

With ED options implying a move of around $3.75 by May let’s look at two different strategies:

Potential Bullish Trade: Buying the ED May 62.5-65 Call Spreads for $0.50
Risk: $50 per 1 lot
Reward: $200 per 1 lot
Breakeven: $63.00

This trade offers a trader 4-1 on their money if ED trades above $65 on May expiration.

Potential Bearish Trade: Buying the ED May 57.5-55 Put Spreads for $0.55
Risk: $55 per 1 lot
Reward: $195 per 1 lot
Breakeven: $56.95

This trade is offering a trader better than 3.5-1 on their money if ED trades below $55 on May expiration.

To help celebrate the 20th anniversary of Starbucks’ signature frozen drink, the Frappuccino, Starbucks will be offering a birthday cake flavored Frappuccino for a limited period of time. Of course the drink will be delicious but is Starbucks stock looking appetizing to investors at this level?

Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) operates in 65 countries around the world and is one of the largest roasters and retailers of coffee and other food and beverage items. The company’s stock is currently trading around $94.80 in a 52 week range of $67.93-$99.20. SBUX has been performing very well this year with shares rallying more than 15% year to date. Despite red hot growth over the past 5 years analysts are still expecting SBUX earnings and revenues to grow over 15% this year. The addition of new food and beverage offerings at certain stores aims to spur new growth for the company.

The stock recently touched new 52 week highs on the announcement the stock will undergo a 2-1 split. The move is meant to increase shareholder value and liquidity ahead of what CEO Howard Schultz expects to be the next leg higher in SBUX earnings growth. With increasing revenues from food and other beverage sales and growth in earnings expected how can a trader take a long term position in SBUX using options?

With the options market implying a $8.80 move in the stock through July expiration we can calculate an upside target around $103.60.

Potential Trade: Buying the SBUX Jul 87.5 Calls for $9.00
Risk: $900 per 1 lot
Reward: Unlimited
Breakeven: $96.50

These calls have a 75 delta meaning they will behave just like a stock position but have a much more defined downside risk.

Kraft Foods Group, Inc (KRFT) stock is trading around $81.80 this morning higher by over 33% on the news that the company will merge with global food manufacturer H. J. Heinz Company (HNZ). The merger has sent KRFT stock soaring but how could a trader have caught this move before the announcement?

One way to see announcements like this telegraphed in the options market is to watch for unusual options activity. Earlier this month, on March 10th to be exact, a trader put on a very large bullish options position in KRFT. On March 10th a trader bought 10,000 KRFT Jun 67.5 calls for $0.70. This trade hit the tape early in the morning and required this trader to lay out $700,000 in capital. At the highs today this position was worth nearly $16.1 million. IF a trader was able to spot this unusual options activity they would have been able to get in on the move ahead of the announcement.

Trade: Trader bought 10,000 KRFT Jun 67.5 calls for $0.70
Risk: $70 per 1 lot
Reward: Unlimited
Breakeven: $70.20

If a trader would have bought a 50 lot of these calls for $0.70 they would have profited nearly $78,000 at the highs.

What Does Google Inc’s (GOOGL) New CFO Mean for the Stock?
Google Inc. is a global tech company with operations in nearly every part of the tech space. The company’s stock is currently trading around $57900 in a 52 week range of $490.91-$608.91. The stock has been doing relatively well this year with shares rallying 9.3% year to date. Over the past 12 months however, the stock hasn’t done much. Shares of GOOGL are only higher by 0.08% over the past 12 months and investors are looking for a catalyst in the name.

One catalyst may be the recent announcement that Ruth Porat, ex Morgan Stanley CFO, will be taking the place of retiring Google CFO Patrick Pichette. Porat is widely regarded as one of the most powerful women on Wall St. and will be taking the spot at Google later this week.
So how can a trader take advantage of a potential management shakeup catalyst using options? If a trader was looking for a longer term strategy they may choose to employ a strategy like this.

Potential Trade: This is a stock replacement strategy that allows a trader to take a long term bet in GOOGL without tying up the capital it would take to buy the stock.

Trade: Buying the GOOGL Jan 2016 535 Calls for $75.00
Risk: $7500 per 1 lot
Reward: Unlimited
Breakeven: $610.00