BJK is Going Higher

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Some bullish activity came across the tape today in BJK, the MarketVectors Gaming ETF, which is a fund comprised of companies that earn more than half their revenue in the gaming industry. This includes casinos, lottery services, racetracks, online sports betting and more. Perhaps some investors see opportunity for growth in the short term with the World Cup approaching and gambling increasing.

BJK is trading in the middle of its 52-week range and gapped up the better half of a dollar overnight and continued to rise this morning with strong volume. A bearish trend can be confirmed by looking at the chart, which shows a break above strong resistance this morning and a climb to well above the cloud, coupled with higher than usual volume.

Let’s take a look at a trade.
The Trade: Buying the BJK July 49-50 Bull Call Spread for $.35 debit

Risk:  $35 per 1 lot

Reward: $65 per 1 lot

 

Greeks of this Trade:

Delta: Long

Gamma; Long

Theta: Short

Vega: Long

DVN Looking Strong

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Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) is involved in the exploration and development of oil, natural gas and NGL’s. The stock is a consensus “Buy/Hold” on Wall Street after strong sessions Tuesday and so far Wednesday and has received high price targets from a lot of banks. The stock is still seemingly a value play trading fewer times earnings than industry counterparts and the market as a whole. That combined with 4x usual volume and making new highs would suggest a continued rally.

Management seems to be performing well after making moves to refocus efforts and funds on domestic development, selling off international assets. This is a play on the likely expansion of US energy production. The sector has been leading the market and Devon has been leading the sector this year, so it’s easy to see why traders are long DVN.

Devon looks great on the cloud chart as well, breaking through strong resistance this morning to the upside and continuing to push higher.

 

The Trade: Buying the DVN July 82.5 Calls for $.33

Targets: Sell 20% at $.43, Sell 20% at $.53, Sell 20% at $.65, Sell 20% at $.80, Sell 20% at $1.00

 

Greeks of this Trade:

Delta: Long

Gamma; Long

Theta: Short

Vega: Long

Bullish Activity in Campbell’s Soup Company

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Campbell’s Soup Company (CPB) is seeing some UOA today and hitting highs of $45.94. The soup maker from New Jersey is up 6.5% YTD after hitting lows of $39.49 in January, likely a result of this year’s harsh winter. After rebounding the stock has done well on the charts breaking through the cloud to the upside and finding strong support levels still above the cloud. The future is bright as the cloud projects an upward trend and gets thicker and thicker, indicating a continued rally for Campbell’s.

CPB over the past few years has hit higher highs and higher lows after selling off from its 52-week high above $48. This, as we all know, is a great sign of bullish movement and traders on the street are betting it will continue. Lets look at a trade:

 

CPB: Buying the CPB Nov 47 Calls for $1.5

Targets: Sell 25% at $1.70, Sell 25% at $1.90, Sell 25% at $2.10, Sell 25% at $2.50

 

Greeks of this Trade:

Delta: Long

Gamma: Long

Theta: Short

Vega: Long

APC Showing Bullish Signals

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Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (APC) is a Texas based oil producer is up 31.2% YTD and isn’t looking back. The energy sector has lead the market this year and APC is no exception. After receiving a nice jump after a lawsuit settlement in April the stock has continued to climb. It has underperformed the industry in the past years and this new activity may be due to a catch-up in productivity. A trader went aggressively long APC buying the right to buy company stock at $115 at or before August expiration. It’s currently trading at $104.31 hitting its 52-week high.

The daily chart is forecasting a continued bullish trend over the next month. Day traders should also be confident looking at the shorter charts with APC breaking resistance above the cloud. Looking at the five-minute bar, APC is flirting with topside resistance in the cloud.

 

Now lets look at the trade:

Buying the APC Aug 115 Calls for $.77

Targets: Sell 25% at $.90, Sell 25% at $1.10, Sell 25% at $1.30, Sell 25% at $1.50

 

Greeks of this Trade:

Delta: Long

Gamma: Long

Theta: Short

Vega: Long

 

 

 

This article was written by Kyle Sheahan, an Associate at Keeneonthemarket.com.

e: Kyle@Keeneonthemarket.com

How Do They Know?

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Protective Life Corp (PL) has seen huge gains since Friday’s close, up more than $17.00 on the week. The stock jumped on the news that Japanese life insurance company Dai-Ichi Life Insurance would pay a pretty penny for the American financial services provider, around $5.7 billion. Dai-Ichi announced it would pay $70.00 a share for PL, a hefty premium of Fridays close.

The deal made traders long PL on Friday a fortune. For example, a trader bought 1000 PL June 60 Calls for 1.25 for a total cash outlay of $125,000. The next day, the same call options were worth $9.30, netting the trader $805,000, otherwise known as 650% returns overnight.

WFM Gettin’ a Bid!

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Whole Foods Market (WFM) is bouncing back after an abysmal May selloff prompted by a disappointing earnings report. The higher-end health food grocer admits it may have set its targets too high after posting huge numbers last year and peaking around $65. The May drawback, in which the stock traded almost inversely with broader bull market, featured the biggest losing day since the years leading up to the financial crisis when consumers had to curtail spending.

This is a cheap long for investors that believe in the business model as WFM is likely to see big gains. With the health craze ever expanding in the US and the recent, and perhaps disproportionate, selloff, Whole Foods stands to rally hard if it can hit its earnings projections, which it is hoping to do by implementing new cost cutting programs to streamline its supply chain.

The chart is looking great for WFM as it’s flying high above the cloud and projected to continue. The stock has found solid support levels and has broken resistance consistently today, up $1.71. Regardless, I don’t see the company, with its extremely passionate customer base, going anywhere.

 

 

The Trade: Buying the WFM July 42 Calls for $.33

Targets: Sell 25% at $.50, Sell 25% at $.65, Sell 25% at $.80, Sell 25% at $1.00

Greeks of this Trade:

Delta: Long

Gamma: Long

Theta: Short

Vega: Long

Quest Diagnostics On The Rise

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It might be time to get long Quest Diagnostics (DGX) as the healthcare company is breaking major resistance levels. The positive trends have been ongoing for a couple weeks and after hitting a low on May 23rd at $57 dollars, DGX rallied up to a high of $62.42 before selling off slightly to its current level of $61.40.

The long-term trend also suggests a continued rise in price as it has come close to its all time high, usually a positive signal for further gains. DGX is trading well above the cloud and is forecast to continue its rise. YTD the stock has outperformed the raging bull market, up 15.29%.

 

 

The Trade: Buying the DGX July 65 Calls for $.60

Risk: $160 per 1 lot

Targets: Sell 25% at $.75, Sell 25% at $.90, Sell 25% at $1.10, Sell 25% at $1.30,

Greeks of this Trade:

Delta: Long

Gamma: Long

Theta: Short

Vega: Long

Traders Go Long PL on UOA

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Protective Life Corporation (PL) is the holding company behind Protective Life Insurance as well as other familiar insurance and financial subsidiaries. Today a trader made bullish play on the company betting almost $125,000 in premium that the stock would close above $60 by June expiration. Buying a 1000-lot of these call options represents nearly twelve times usual option volume. The chart confirms a bullish trend as PL is currently trading just above the cloud and the positive trend looks to continue.

The financial services provider jumped more than 10% in Monday’s trading session seeing abnormally high volume. It’s currently trading at $58.52, and hit its 52-week high of $60.38 Monday. The unusual activity in the stock could stem from the fact that analysts haven’t been able to put their finger on a price target for the company, leading to much higher volatility and luring a lot of options traders into playing this stock, with most of the smart ones going long PL.

 

 

Apple ripe and juicy on implied volatility ahead of its tech announcement.

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Apple Inc. (AAPL) Silicon Valley tech giant that creates every “I” related tech product. The popular creator and distributor of computers, tablets, phones, and media has been boring the past two years without a new product launch. The tech company and its CEO Tim Cook, have been criticized for not continuing with the innovation and creativity found in the Steve Jobs era. Over the weekend Apple made the announcement that they had big news to announce Monday at WWDC. The hype and excitement around the potential for a new and innovative product has implied volatility juiced up.

Implied volatility surrounding announcements makes options pop in price value. We see implied volatility get inflated whenever bio tech companies report drug announcements, earnings announcements, and new product announcements. Implied volatility is inflated due to the uncertainty surrounding the news of the announcement. However after the news is announced implied volatility gets crushed as investors have processed the information and how it will affect the company and the stock price.

Awaiting Apple’s announcement, the stock is trading at $633.00 and was up about $1.27 pre-market. Apple has been trading in a fifty two week range between $388.87-644.17. Apple is trading above a very bullish cloud, with a slanted bullish future cloud. I believe Apple’s bullish chart is setting up for a long position. Remember getting in ahead of the announcement will mean that an options buyer will pay more in premium because of the pending announcement. After the announcement implied volatility will get crushed, lowering the value of the option.

 

Krispy Kreme Earnings Preview

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Krispy Kreme (KKD) is set to release earnings next Monday, June 2nd. After falling short of analyst expectation’s for Q4 2014 in March by a penny, the stock sold off about 67 cents. But when the company release fiscal 2015 guidance with high expectations it rallied again. KKD estimated EPS of $0.73-$0.79 on net income of $48 million–. It raised estimates based on its strong growth and ability to cut overhead costs increasing its profit margin.

For Q1 analyst consensus estimates are at $0.23 per share on $126 MM in revenue, expecting an EPS of $0.71 on the year. Krispy Kreme management ratifies its heightened estimates citing the harsh winter as a catalyst behind a weak Q4. The stock’s down almost 3% YTD trading at about the midpoint of its 52-week range of $13.55-$26.63.

Personally, I’m long Krispy Kreme because it’s delicious. But let’s take a look at the historical earnings movements and the trade setup.

Past eight quarters’ earnings reports:

 

03/13/14   $19.88   $20.11  $+0.23    (1.2%)
12/03/13   $24.55   $19.59  $-4.96     (-20.2%)
08/30/13   $23.23   $19.72  $-3.51     (-15.1%)
05/31/13   $14.26   $17.32  $+3.06    (21.5%)
03/15/13   $14.95   $14.54  $-0.41     (-2.7%)
11/20/12    $7.54    $9.31     $+1.77    (23.5%)
08/23/12    $6.95    $7.31     $+0.36    (5.2%)
05/21/12    $6.01    $6.62     $+0.61    (10.1%)

Historical Earnings Move: Mean 12.4%, Median 12.6%

 

The Trade: Buying the KKD June 20-21 Call Spread for $0.25 debit

Risk: $25 per 1 lot

Reward: $75 per 1 lot

Breakeven: $20.25

 

It is a sideways looking chart and looks to be able to move either way.