So— Again— we see that “numbers don’t lie, people do”. Both the API and EIA were drawdowns and now that the data confirmed what the price had been trying to do (again) we squeezed. This is not only significant because we have front month options (for October) coming off the board today, but we also have FOMC. Despite all the “bearish talk, or bankers claiming 20 a barrel” — Crude Oil CL settled @ 47.15 up over $2.56 a barrel! —for some to the highest levels of the month!
Not only do we have FOMC Announcements, Forecasts, and Yellen Press Conference — we have data in the early morning that could get markets moving even before the “main event”. At 8:30 AM ET we have Housing Starts and Jobless Claims, than the Philly Fed at 10 AM ET… we have some other minor reports and treasury announcements. But regardless of what ELSE we have that will be moving markets — ALL EYES WILL BE ON 2-2:30 PM ET AS WE AWAIT THE ALMIGHTY FED.
As I blogged about last night, I am still more focused on MY positions vs. focusing on all the FOMC kook-aid and speculation…
@KeeneOnMarket FOMC imminent, not eminent. *Still focused on Crude Oil. http://t.co/HsgzhOUqjQ — Another drawdown in API inventories Tues!
— Bret Rosenthal (@TheMarketQuote) September 16, 2015
*What I mean by this again is that, although I am conscious of the FOMC and will be respecting the event — I will still treat it just as I do every other session, as I pointed out in yesterdays blog, I still think Monday Aug 24th with the Mini Flash Crash will remain much crazier than today’s FOMC could get, even if we do raise rates.
So try to not get too distracted by all the Yellen this and that, and Fed this and that — and focus more on regardless of what goes on tomorrow, what’s going to happen to your positions, or how will various scenarios effect your position… Basically have a plan, and trade that plan accordingly to your positions and individual risk.
Focusing on CL last night and not the FED turned into one of my “best” sessions or trades yet — and I anticipate there is only more trading to come. So I will be ready and patient as I listen to FOMC, but I won’t allow it to “scare me from participating”… I will be trading.
As it says in the title: “I left money on the table” — my goal is to be able to say this more often.
Happy FED DAY… GL ALL.
Let’s try again tomorrow. – Happy Trading.
-Bret Rosenthal