ConocoPhillips (COP) to The Long 3.19.2013

The five-year plan to make this happen is to spend $3 billion on Permian assets; this is projected to add 40,000 barrels of oil per day in production. Not only will this assist with the decline in the base, but it will also produce an impressive 7% annual production growth through 2017. This plan will boost oil production by 45% (30% last year, with 75% projected for 2017).

ConocoPhillips will facilitate this through technology use, by incorporating 4-D seismic, coil tubing, casing, and drilling in their operations to lower their costs. They also intend to bring Alpine West/CD5 satellite into production by 2015-2016, decreasing the costs of the small oil pockets.  Finally, they will use a new product to allow tubing to go in-between the rocks for significant monetary savings.

In the long-term, ConocoPhillips will be a winner. The company is the world’s third largest energy producer, with operations in over thirty countries and approximately 8.4 billion barrel of proven oil reserves.  With their increase in production and reserves, the recent fall in commodity prices has taken its toll.  In response, management sold off assets and decreased inventory.  In 2012 they spun of their downstream assets into a separate company, Phillips 66.  They are now exclusively focused on production growth.

Yesterday, paper bought 15,000 COP March weekly 60 Calls for $.21.  Paper is an
order from a hedge fund, mutual fund, retail bank, or big trader.  I jumped on board and
bought the COP April 60 Calls for $.68

My Trade: Buying the COP April 60 Calls for $.68
Risk: $68 per 1 lot
Reward: Unlimited
Breakeven: $60.68

Greeks of this Trade:
Delta: Long
Gamma: Long
Vega: Long
Theta: Short


Andrew Keene
President/Founder
Andrew@KeeneOnTheMarket.com