Starting with Apple, the trend is clearly down, every rally has been sold and there has not been enough volume recently to get me bullish. Looking at the count, there are five waves down, but it seems forced if one was to use it with high confidence. This leaves the door open to more possibilities, and ultimately more downside as long as the price tells us so. This more macro view, has us in a wave (v) of 5… targeting the $390-$345 region upon completion. A break of the prior lows put in around $419 should be the first indication that we are headed for $390.
To get me at all bullish on Apple in the short term, I would want to see a 5-3 setup, a break of the declining tops line around $450, and huge volume to confirm the rally. Until this happens, I am still bearish on Apple and expecting lower levels to be seen before any higher levels are touched. To go long Apple right now is fighting the larger trend… and fighting the trend is never smart.
Trend, trend, trend… I hope this is engraved in your brain once you are done reading this. Just like with Apple, the trend in Google is clear, its up. No matter what the fundamentals, technicals or sentiment the trend is up and price is the leading indicator.
There are obviously signs/indicators that we can use that give us a ‘hint’ that the trend is changing… but we must respect price. The current count in Google has us in a wave (iv) of 3, targeting the $850-$885 region before we can expect a pullback in a larger degree. In the short term, it seems to be working on a smaller pullback that might not yet be completed. It can still come down to around $804 on this pullback before the next rally begins. I still expect higher levels to be seen before we get a larger pullback. But, if the price does break $780 with conviction that would be my first sign that we are headed lower… with $730 being the nail in the coffin for the bulls.
You must remember not to fight trend, and let the price confirm a change in the trend if you so wish to trade against it.
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Author: Peter Nitso
Twitter: @PeterNitso
pnitso@yahoo.com
