A lot of people asking me (surprised) today “Why did Crude Oil sell off?” —

My answer, half jokingly, quoting Gordon Gekko — “Because it was wreck-able!” …What I mean by this is, IMO: it almost seemed like everything was aligned for Crude Oil to continue its climb higher, and everything seeming so perfect meant, – it can’t happen.

This isn’t the first time the market (especially CL) hasn’t done what the majority in the moment anticipated it would or should do… or I guess could do.

First off, why did I think Crude Oil would rally? — well, I have been thinking that if we can exploit the “unlimited Crude Oil supply story”, we could start heading North finally. That being said, anytime we have data or information regarding CL and inventories, I am watching— So we had API come in (Tuesday after close) with another massive drawdown, AND THEN we have EIA come in today with another back to back draw…

So as we were already higher on the week from Monday’s strong rip higher in Crude Oil of about $2 or 4%— the people had certainly bid/bought the rumor ahead of the #’s. But, as we got confirmation that maybe there hasn’t been an abundance of CL as we initially were told — the fact is SOLD.

This is why trading is hard, this is what makes trading so difficult. I am not the only oil bull who saw these massive drawdowns and started salivating at the potential new HOD’s to come — but, as the title and CL closing price show, they never did, the new highs never came.

What I did well while the news went my way, but the market (CL) didn’t — I didn’t fight it, nor did I fight myself.

What I mean by this is: that, I didn’t “bet more”, I didn’t buy more oil, or start taking off my hedges (on the dip back), or panic against the move… I also didn’t mentally stress myself out by trying to “figure out why we went down” or if I should change my sentiment this minute. *For me, its just another trading session, its 1 of 250 potential trading days that this product or my trades could have worked out, but it didn’t, this is why I have tomorrow.

The goal is to make money, but regardless of professional or amateur, in trading, there are going to be many times where it “just doesn’t happen”. Today, on Crude Oil, the trade really “took place” prior to all the “news”, it was “wreck-able”, so it sold off, but — I lived to trade another day.

For reference:

*EIA: US DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (18 Sep) W/W -1925K vs. Exp. -1250K (Prev -2104K)
*API: US API Crude Oil Inventories (Sep 18) W/W -3700K (Prev. -3100K)

—Just wanted to check again, ha. *Still look like draw downs to me!

Let’s try again tomorrow. – Happy Trading.

-Bret Rosenthal

Follow @TheMarketQuote

Today we had a classic pairing or “retracement” of the losses on Friday — at least for Crude Oil. Looking at CL from the fall on Friday — there was plenty of opportunity to get long and establish a counter position, (getting ready for the bounce back we saw take place into the settlement). I sat confidently holding my CL position as I watched stocks play their usual games, rallying into the morning and selling off intraday, only to rally and rip higher into the close and through it… Meanwhile as our stocks were able to bid back into the green, and Oil was firm — I was surprised to see the USD was getting stronger.

I saw Gold was lower and not having much of a bid, but I saw this as an inverse play to the higher stocks/oil — as I looked closer, it seemed that the USD strength was likely the culprit to break the bulls spirits, and generally we did not have much of a breakout or ability to build momentum. As I often play “the USD” through USDollar denominated commodities and stocks / markets… I decided to go back to something that was working last week, and dip my toes into FX Futures to play it directly.

What I mean by this, is often times I will make a trade elsewhere, thinking for example “Oh the Loonie (6C) is bid, so here comes the NZD (6N) and AUD (6A) rallying with it… (also commodity currencies)”— This momentum and “bid” in those products (thus weakening USDollars and showing a “bid” in a currency linked more specifically to certain commodities, — I would make a buy or sale in Copper, or Gold, Or Oil for example off of these other FX Futures moving. Basically I am using the market to play the market, as I see real numbers on markets moving, real money moving various asset classes, I know that “The Law of Cause and Effect” and correlations will be kicking in to complete the full picture, —and the thing is, this goes on for 23 hours a day, so the opportunity has not been missed, it hasn’t even happened yet!

This makes two points, one point is that “for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.” and the other point is that, I never feel like I am missing a trade or can miss a trade, there is always another one unfolding and setting-up. — The game of futures is not really ever over… this is why it is important for me to constantly best figure out my style, my risk, my plan, as the market doesn’t care about me, — I must always be looking out for myself as I trade these markets. So for now, I am going to do this by staying active, and being conscious of what is going on in other markets, even despite what I see elsewhere, or especially despite what I hear…

A fact is, we didn’t raise rates in September, and I feel like this had to be for a reason (and if it wasn’t- we still didn’t lift off), it doesn’t seem as a realist that we are going to be raising very soon either. I can only do what the market is telling me, but for now, I don’t understand why the USDollar would be getting stronger again? The music hasn’t stopped, so the party should still go on. That being said, we will see where the USDollar ends up let’s say, maybe by Thursday — after it has had a week to digest the fact that the previous Thursday, the FOMC did and said nothing that would make me think otherwise. Hmmm… The Spoos ES hit 2011.75 last Thursday, and now were trading 1960’s? I will not be sitting here trying to figure out when or if we will raise rates, I am going to be sitting here trading, as I have been. *It amazes me how many people still getting wrapped up on that subject (and asking or mentioning to me about rates), when day-to-day I can’t recall any of these conversations really helping me make much real money while really trading markets.

Just like people using “inventories or supply” as argument or justification for Crude Oil prices staying low, or going to 20… HA. — we see this get beat when the EIA/API state with numbers/facts otherwise… we didn’t raise rates, so the FED/FOMC is saying we aren’t ready… so I am not going to front run and bid up King USDollar (since it’s already been happening for a while) — rather, I am going to position for it’s fall. I think the market is smarter than the FED/FOMC, so if they are targeting inflation, we will see it first in prices or too quick for the average trader to catch. I don’t care where markets can move to irrationally in a moment or day, I care about where they are going to be in the future. As I typically would play this fading USD with longs in denominated commodities or stocks, I am not afraid to do it directly in the FX Futures (as well) as we made it past the most recent Fed Day with nothing to really talk about…

Let’s try again tomorrow. – Happy Trading.

-Bret Rosenthal

Follow @TheMarketQuote

Could there be any more volatility in this market? I mean I don’t even think the swings in the VIX are justifying how much volatility there is, and I am not just talking about in the ES. It feels like every Friday continues to be more and more epic… but this being a Quadruple Witching event =’s all the more reason to BE VOLATILE.

I traded the VIX futures (VX) ON Thursday for the first time in months — I mean it was irresistible as it set up one of the most perfect “shake and bake, fake out “V” formations” — I had no choice but to “jump” into a cheap front month VIX as it traded below 18 in the final minutes of trade (this as the ES traded to post FOMC session highs of 2011.75). As I think many identified the opportunities to “front run” settlements around the board, this VIX action into the end of Thursday’s session was right up in the list of “the best plays in town”. — From maybe around 13:50 to 15:00 we rallied almost 3.00 VOLS from a LOD to a new HOD — (taking us from 17.65 to 20.55! *Then today the VIX futures (VX) add another 5% as VOLATILITY consumed the market again, and we’re already trading 21.55… Traders must keep in mind that the VIX was trading over 30 just 2-3 weeks ago around Sept 1st.

While the market was ripping to post FOMC highs — all I could think of was “what’s going to happen next”, as always, I was thinking about the future, and I could only anticipate that the only certainty in that moment of uncertainty: “There will be VOL”.

Anyways, I closed that trade for a fast quick generous winner… and on to the next one. *Don’t get me wrong, this was not the only way to play volatility yesterday — it was just the most direct and pure way, so I did it.

Meanwhile as markets digested “FOMC” – the initial exuberance and excitement (maybe caused by the lack their of) created an enormous amount of opportunity. I was able to front run a lot of settlements as we had a lot of Futures markets “moving” after they had already had their settlements for the day. For example- Gold had settled at 12:30 somewhat around 1117 for the front month GC… but as the FOMC announcement was delivered after the metals settlement, the “rally” for Friday started early,– and we even got some more follow through to the upside during the actual US Session. I will be focused on Gold (GC) even more than usual going forward — this clearly had it’s moment to rise with the FOMC latest decisions (and the deeper implications), trading up to a HOD of 1141.5! Amongst a fairly large sea of RED, Gold was able to shine into the GREEN today… and I think this is only the start, again.

Meanwhile, there were incredibly large moves in the FX today, and what I was trading a lot of was Commodity Currencies like the AUD, NZD, and CAD — I was scalping those to the upside on their high marks from yesterdays settlement (again front-running those settles too)… all while I was dirty hedging it against my bearish day trade from yesterday as the EUR traded up to 1.1450 while other pairs got hit… There was A LOT to do… but we can’t focus on the past any longer than we already have, we are focused on the future here, so…

Time for the weekend!

STAY NIMBLE -> VOLATILITY =’s OPPORTUNITY

Let’s try again next week. Have a GREAT weekend! – Happy Trading.

-Bret Rosenthal

Follow @TheMarketQuote

So— Again— we see that “numbers don’t lie, people do”. Both the API and EIA were drawdowns and now that the data confirmed what the price had been trying to do (again) we squeezed. This is not only significant because we have front month options (for October) coming off the board today, but we also have FOMC. Despite all the “bearish talk, or bankers claiming 20 a barrel” — Crude Oil CL settled @ 47.15 up over $2.56 a barrel! —for some to the highest levels of the month!

Not only do we have FOMC Announcements, Forecasts, and Yellen Press Conference — we have data in the early morning that could get markets moving even before the “main event”. At 8:30 AM ET we have Housing Starts and Jobless Claims, than the Philly Fed at 10 AM ET… we have some other minor reports and treasury announcements. But regardless of what ELSE we have that will be moving markets — ALL EYES WILL BE ON 2-2:30 PM ET AS WE AWAIT THE ALMIGHTY FED.

As I blogged about last night, I am still more focused on MY positions vs. focusing on all the FOMC kook-aid and speculation…

@KeeneOnMarket FOMC imminent, not eminent. *Still focused on Crude Oil. http://t.co/HsgzhOUqjQ — Another drawdown in API inventories Tues!

— Bret Rosenthal (@TheMarketQuote) September 16, 2015

*What I mean by this again is that, although I am conscious of the FOMC and will be respecting the event — I will still treat it just as I do every other session, as I pointed out in yesterdays blog, I still think Monday Aug 24th with the Mini Flash Crash will remain much crazier than today’s FOMC could get, even if we do raise rates.

So try to not get too distracted by all the Yellen this and that, and Fed this and that — and focus more on regardless of what goes on tomorrow, what’s going to happen to your positions, or how will various scenarios effect your position… Basically have a plan, and trade that plan accordingly to your positions and individual risk.

Focusing on CL last night and not the FED turned into one of my “best” sessions or trades yet — and I anticipate there is only more trading to come. So I will be ready and patient as I listen to FOMC, but I won’t allow it to “scare me from participating”… I will be trading.

As it says in the title: “I left money on the table” — my goal is to be able to say this more often.

Happy FED DAY… GL ALL.

Let’s try again tomorrow. – Happy Trading.

-Bret Rosenthal

Follow @TheMarketQuote

‘Twas almost the night before Yellen… BUT it is the start of the overly anticipated FOMC meeting… and I don’t care what they are about to do. Because I don’t know what it will mean or do to markets, and neither do you.

Anyways, I am still focused on Crude Oil, and just treating it as “business as usual”. I can guarantee this, I don’t anticipate tomorrow or the actual FOMC announcements/forecasts/conferences to bring MORE volatility than the recent Aug 24th Monday Morning Mini-Flash Crash. What I am saying is, if you survived that trading day, heck, maybe you even made profits — then this should be a walk in the park.

For reference, that Aug 24th Monday Morning Mini-Flash Crash had the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index plunging 5.3 percent in the opening minutes, which is the largest intraday loss in four years. The market bounced up, only to come back down, and pattern continued through the day until the close, when the benchmark finally settled down 3.9 percent. —So, if you are reading this, and still trading today, I think you have made it through a “crazier” event, than what we are about to see.

If anything, if I’m wrong, the effects will be felt far beyond the FED announcement itself, if there is truly a paradigm shift in the offing, than this will go on for days. So what I am personally doing, is preparing more for the “future” and less for tomorrow or the next day. This is one of the rare occasions (there are only 8 FOMC meetings a year) that can single handedly influence any and all markets in a moment. Something I am keeping conscious of regardless of what information we digest during or after this most hyped FOMC decision– is whatever decisions I make after the event, depending on what is said, could be the start of something unfathomably larger and different than we have ever seen before. I could be wrong. Forever.

So as of course, my mind can be confused and consumed in the most common market scuttle — as can yours… but as I started tonights post — I don’t care about the FED, I am focused on Crude Oil, and I am managing that position (front month expires Thursday), and that takes time, which is why I have time to think and speculate about these matters.

Besides we won’t know if we are really wrong “forever”, until the FED minutes (from this meeting), and that isn’t released for a few weeks. — All the more reasons for me to focus on my Crude Oil CL positions.

Numbers don’t lie, people do. We had another DRAWDOWN in API Tuesday after the close! I have more questions about CL than I do FOMC. Let’s see what CL can do tomorrow – (as we have more data in Wednesday’s EIA Petroleum Status Report due out @ 9:30 AM CT).

US API CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES (SEP 11) W/W -3100K (Prev +2100K) – API CUSHING INVENTORIES (SEP 11) W/W -1500K *Yet another drawdown… $CL_F.

— Bret Rosenthal (@TheMarketQuote) September 15, 2015

Let’s try again tomorrow. – Happy Trading.

-Bret Rosenthal

Follow @TheMarketQuote

Well — the Spoos were able to rally out into the end of the day — and to end the week. If you missed the end of the trading session — you missed the final leg up and HOD for the session in the Spoos (ES). The title gives away todays “trading blog”… I trade the S&P 500 — and when I trade the minis, I prefer to use weeklies to manage my RISK. Keyword being – RISK.

The Spoos are one of the most widely traded futures in the universe — that being said, this is why they “move” they way that they do, many eyes and participants around the world trading the same thing… While most people were focused on the December contract for the ES (as roll is approaching here), I was still focused on the September contract. — This is because I was trading the Spoos through the ESU5 (wk2) weekly options. With the ability to trade the weeklies (every 7 days lol), it creates an unbelievable amount of leverage and volatility for the ES, especially come expiration time (as we saw today, and every Friday).

Most investors look at the market so simply; “it has to go up because that data was good” or “there is insider buying, stock will go up”, — those two hypothetical outlooks are not very far fetched — but as “simple” as it all sounds, the market is not that simple. *This brings me to my point of todays post, — MARKETS DO THINGS FOR REASONS MOST INVESTORS/TRADERS AREN’T EVEN THINKING OF…

What does this mean you may be wondering?

Basically– this means that although we are always looking for the “obvious or simple” explanations as to why the market DOES or SHOULD do something — the true catalyst is usually a COMPLETELY different reason. So, the same concept mentioned that we had weekly ES options expiring today at 3pm… THIS is the reason we had our final leg up into the close and through the 3:15 close for ES. It’s easy for the markets to move when traders can leverage up and define their risk (EVERY WEEK!)… So basically, we have an opportunity to move BIG, and QUICKLY as we approach the end of every single trading week (assuming there are options expiring because most products I trade have weeklies). So although AAPL was bid basically since the open, and really started picking up steam into the end of the session, I wanted to say “this was the reason that the ES ended up rallying (and it’s the obvious part of it) — but it was really the ability for traders to manage their risk (so efficiently and not costly) that gave us the ability to Move the way we so often do, especially into option expiration Fridays.

So by using the weeklies — I was not only able to scalp ES to the upside (but I could do it with defined risk, and for free based on the put spread I sold to pay for my put protection as I was long ES future/option. Just like any “trade”, the more I focus on the weeklies, the more I learn about them, and the better I manage my risk as I speculate in the S&P 500 every week.

Besides the positions I consistently manage in Gold GC and Crude Oil CL — The ES is my third most traded product, and it is quickly moving up my preferred list (because of the ability to trade weeklies).

So I choose to focus less on the “analyst noise and old trader tales”, and I study more and more – into the mechanics and boring stuff that REALLY makes markets move!

Let’s try again next week. Have a GREAT weekend! – Happy Trading.

-Bret Rosenthal

Follow @TheMarketQuote

Continuing on the conversation from yesterday’s post — The key is to ensure that you can set-up your risk in order to stay in your trade (long enough to validate your conviction)… That being said, if you are a retail trader (and most of us are), being long, long anything — You were tested today.

What a great rally in the ES, this morning, we traded as high as 1992 on the Spoos… at that point, I had to take some of the “long stockmarket” trade off of the table– so I did. — Then a few hours later, the trader that I am — had to get long again as we were below 1970 — now we are lower, and I’m back in it. That being said– I am in it, the trade is still on, its live, its unrealized, I had my earlier trade, now I have a new basically long delta position in ES.

While the ES continues to be a “falling knife” on a day like today for example, I fortunately have been able to protect my “shots at being long stocks” by paying up an owning protection. Basically I am paying to play — sure I can lose the premium, and it can take away from my profits, but I pay for the PUTS because it keeps me in the game. Being long ES for example, you could easily “blowout” even on small size, when we have 50pt intraday swings (on the regular). So for me — I can either pay to play, and pay up for the PUTS, or I won’t be playing at all. Trying to scalp the ES with a tight stop right now is not going to be my approach, I am swing trading between a usually bullish stance on the stock market. (Which has been the greatest creation of wealth as I look around at the oldest bulls I know)… These days, with technology and now all these new forms of leverage, – things move faster than ever – I think its better to be safe than sorry, and define your risk before EVERY trade.

Lastly, I don’t often talk about individual stocks, but I am eying the big elephants in the room in AAPL and TWTR. (Especially while I try and corner the ES)… When I look at these two very different and unique companies (in addition to similar blue chip names) I see a lot more upside than downside, — it may not be clean/pretty — but if those stocks have more upside, I would think the Spoos (ES) has the potential for higher trading again. The other spot I am looking at to get an idea “IF” the ES can rally back is commodities (Gold GC and OIL CL) — Everyone keeps talking about the global focus, especially Asia’s influence, if this is the case, I will be looking at the commodities for the next “buy signal”, until then I will be paying to play – waiting for the rally and staying in the game. You will always be thankful for having protection — without it, I don’t see it as “realistic” to live to trade another day. Ha… how else do you expect to catch a possible turnaround in (Gold GC and Oil CL)…

*Either you could have made more, or you’ll be thankful that it saved you, it’s a good problem to have. Just need to get past the “paying to play” concept.

In this case, in some of these particular set-ups I mentioned, I am thankful that it saved me, and ideally giving me the opportunity to, maybe if I’m lucky — I’ll be complaining I could have made more soon!

Let’s try again tomorrow. – Happy Trading.

-Bret Rosenthal

Follow @TheMarketQuote

Too often people out trade / over trade themselves — and usually into losses… It’s not the market that beats them, its themselves! I have learned that myself in the past, but I am borrowing knowledge from Jesse Livermore as he is quoted in his unofficial biography Reminiscence of a Stock Operator.

“The reason is that a man may see straight and clearly and yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time about doing as he figured it must do. That is why so many men in Wall Street, who are not at all in the sucker class, not even in the third grade, nevertheless lose money. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight. Old Turkey was dead right in doing and saying what he did. He had not only the courage of his convictions but the intelligent patience to sit tight.”

PATIENCE. DISCIPLINE. THE ABILITY TO BE COMFORTABLE WITH DOING NOTHING, AND USUALLY WAITING FOR “IT” TO PLAY OUT. — I am reading this newer version of Reminiscence of a Stock Operator, and I can’t help but relate almost every famous quote, or even the random stories, to some of my own. Clearly I am not swinging nor experiencing the identical moments described in the book, but I have my own versions throughout my own career thus far. *Anyways, the point of this quote is to “Stay in the game, — to live to trade another day, and to catch (profit from) your convictions”, which I talk about so often here.

We are trading Futures, the name is giving it away, focus on the future. While we manage risk in the present time, and it matters right now — the game is designed looking forward, where will we (and your risk) be in 5 min, 10 min, a day or so? It is less about being right “immediately” and more about figuring out “how can I manage this position based on my bias for that particular product”. — I wanted the stock market to rally last week, I thought we would bottom, and I could leverage up the position into the end of that week, but the market doesn’t care about me, so it was my job to figure out, “how do I stay in?” Since this is the way I set myself up, I would have loved it Friday, but I will not complain about getting the second best day of the year for stocks a session late. I am still in.. *So today I was long ES, and I knew my risk as I had owned the outright future ES, and front month 1895 put, (which I rolled up to 1925 strike), basically long synthetic calls (long deltas in ES). — I wanted to buy when we were low, which I did, and I can manage my risk accordingly throughout the entire trade, that being said, this is risk capital, and if I am wrong, I am willing to lose what I can there based on the strikes and outrights.

More importantly, I didn’t miss the move in Copper today. This is the move I have been waiting for. The Doctor (Dr. Copper) was finally resilient to the upside — we had the best day of the year for HG and we are still at “low levels” for recent time. IMO – being able to lean on the strength in copper, made it “easier” for me to trade Crude, ES, Gold, and risk/commodity currencies like CAD/AUD/NZD.

The key is, to not bust yourSELF out of the trade, stay in the game! Live to trade another day, — this is only possible if you learn from your mistakes and continue to sharpen your skills, always, constantly. The future markets are more Darwinian than they have been in a long time again, volatility is creeping back in, we have extreme rate rumors, and even the best traders/hedgers/banks in the world are “re-tooling” their approaches in the Futures Market. Make sure to continue to adapt with it, and keep yourself in the trades you BELIEVE IN. This way, when the bottom or top, or continuation you have been waiting for begins to blast off, — you aren’t stuck chasing alpha (and reporting old news/prices) with all the other Monday morning Quarterbacks, or in this case Tuesday Morning QB’s.

Manage your risk, and wait – let the market WORK for you.

Still waiting in Crude / Gold. In the meantime, I am sitting back and letting the MARKET work for ME.

Let’s try again tomorrow. – Happy Trading.

-Bret Rosenthal

Follow @TheMarketQuote

Spent a lot of time at the end of the session, doing some data mining, as well as : some good old fashioned charting and applicable middle school math. — Good trades or bad trades, I am always relieved when the market finally stops moving, and for futures, this doesn’t happen until 4:15pm ct.

Today, we had another “flush” in the market, this time, it started last night, continued this morning, but didn’t really accelerate until after a quick headfake around Fed talk (Jeffrey Lacker) before the awaited Employment Situation to help “shake” things up.

The markets seem more confused than ever, as bulls can rip the ES up 30 pts in an hour or so at anytime, yet the bears have taken over the charts for the moment. I guess confusion =’s volatility, and that is a good thing for traders. If the Spoooos ES are moving, — the market is moving. So as we sold off almost 33-34 pts from the lowest point I can remember buying (or tweeting) — I looked around to see where did this spill into?

The RED ticker tapes, as we are getting more and more used to, took over the boards again. What started as a very “green” morning in a lot of products for me, ended up turning into another RED shake out. I say shake out, because this is futures, and as most of these products did not expire today and continue to trade towards their deliverable date — the market can still make it’s move.

I sat in Gold GC, (as I complain and will continue to complain regarding the yellow metal being a forgotten investment) — It still did hold / protect my money relatively – as the algos went out to offer EVERYTHING. Well, almost everything. (It wasn’t quite panic, it seemed quite orderly, but it was orderly selling) — as a general bull, I have a tendency to scalp or swing to the upside in positions, this is no place for me. *But with options and futures, I am able to protect and manage my risk, *as well as I can of course.

Overall, I think we had a classic little holiday shake out today — people are getting ready for the 3 day holiday weekend, as they shout “whoop whoop” at 3:33 on the trading floor of the NYSE. ***THIS WILL ALL BE OLD NEWS AND FORGOTTEN THE MOMENT WE START TRADING NEXT WEEK. — So might as well look to the future, in the futures— As far as the CME goes, these future products will be open Sunday and trade a half session, that will be trade date through Monday as well. I’ll be sitting in Gold, and a more than a few other commodities and markets that I consistently have been trading positions around. Most would anticipate since its Labor Day holiday trading schedule, maybe, “we won’t move”… But Crude Oil had it’s largest move over that sketchy stretched Thanksgiving holiday trading schedule last year — I wouldn’t be surprised to see some serious swings, so make sure you are there to manage your risk!

Most importantly, enjoy the weekend, the market will be back, it’s not going anywhere, saturday is the only day to truly “take a break”, so MAKE SURE you do so. — I am not a registered investment advisor, so I won’t tell you when or what to buy and sell, but I will tell you that taking a real break is the most important thing you can do for yourself. ***Because once the market opens back up Sunday — it will NOT take a break for you. The market is WON after-hours, not only in the fact that I am sitting here and working extra hours after the closing bell has already rang — but in the fact that I feel just as passionate about taking that break tomorrow.

Let’s try again next week. Have a GREAT weekend! – Happy Trading.

-Bret Rosenthal

Follow @TheMarketQuote

So… if you shorted Gold GC today, please stop reading this, you’re not welcome here! Ha… But seriously…

As Crude Oil continues to work for me, and even if it is scary / not pretty, CL finding its way into the green again. YET — My focus is on the metals, and specifically in GC. I have been stalking Gold for a long time, I watch all these different markets, and I often try and figure out their implications on the shiny forgotten metal. Over the years, I have traded it with/against the stocks, the dollar, oil… I still finally realize, nobody cares about Gold GC — with the exception of maybe the late night wingnut gold bug crowd buying up siver eagle coins or whatever they are called LOL… *My issue is I want the hedge fund manager, banker, or say trader to start caring for the forgotten safe haven. Without volume, without a crowd, without opinions, — Gold GC isn’t going to be able to move.

Is that it—, or is there a certain central bank that has this thing on complete auto-rig, so they can move it when they need? *Or, is there an investment bank, thats cornering everybody, –especially the guys buying the coins.

Either way, I don’t think we stay here, and it’s not like we are on the lowest levels of the year for GC, even as we have had the USD attempting to firm up again. One thing that is continuing to confuse me on the Gold GC move, or lack there of… If the stocks are going to sell off for fear/uncertainty reasons — Why not BUY GOLD? (I am baffled that people would rather buy US Treasuries ahead of a rate rise, or even a fake product in the intangible untamable VIX).

BASICALLY — AS MY GENERATION HAS KILLED THE VALUE IN ANYTHING PHYSICAL OR TANGIBLE. — WE DON’T SEE THE “SAFENESS” IN BEING ABLE TO HOLD/OWN THE PHYSICAL GOLD, (vs. buying virtual protection in a electronic contract).

Future markets are extremely Darwinian, and with weeklies/EOMs/quarterlys, different sizes of contracts, settlements, exchanges, brokers, more and more changing technology than ever today — heck we just finally closed the PHYSICAL futures pits. — We don’t trade pork bellies or potatoes anymore, but I am not willing to have the argument debating Golds relevance, as if Gold is about to go off the CME trading board, ha..

One thing that’s in Gold’s camp, is that to it’s peers, like a Platinum, Gold is the best in class, it trades at a premium to Platinum for example, which for a long time, GC traded Platinum 1006.1). So relatively, maybe Gold doesn’t seem like the “worst product in the world”. I mean as my last 2 blog posts supported, and I still stand by it, “I am hiding out in Gold GC”. *Even if the old safe haven is not heading north (for now), it was still “safer” to hide in while almost every Market was in the Red during these past couple of “CRAZY Sessions”.

For now, I have more than a few positions I am managing — and as I always trade futures looking towards tomorrows session, I anticipate that we will find out which came first: the goose or the golden egg. *Basically, relationships and correlations come and go, but they will be back as Gold GC tries to figure out, if it is truly “The Forgotten Investment”.

One last thing going for Gold is: everyone is being pretty quiet about the low price again — it would alarm me more, if all of a sudden, everyone was talking about Gold GC. I think people will talk about it again, BUT hopefully, once it is to late (as everyone is comfortable being a monday morning QB for some reason). But then again — I know nothing.

Let’s try again tomorrow. – Happy Trading.

-Bret Rosenthal

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