Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF, $28.46) hasn’t been stylish for investors in 2014 – share are off by 13.5% year to date. The stock is scheduled to report earnings prior to the open of Wednesday’s session, with consensus analyst estimates calling for $0.41 EPS on $916.03 million of revenue. One year prior, the company posted EPS of $0.45 (a beat of $0.07) on $1.03 billion in revenue.

ANF stock has traded in a 52-week range of $28-$45.50, clocking its intraday high on August 27. The stock has fallen following 2 of its past 4 earnings reports, and 5 of the past 8. ANF stock has weekly options, offering traders the opportunity to further isolate earnings catalyst movement. The market on the ANF Dec Weekly 28.5 Straddle is $2.70-$3.01, and thus is implying a move of roughly 10.1%. This is slightly below the 10.8% mean move seen over the past 8 quarters.

While recent retail earnings have been relatively strong, Black Friday numbers have been estimated to be poor and could upset ANF guidance. Some have estimated Black Friday spending to be 11% lower than in 2013, which could be particularly disruptive to the budget conscious teen shopper.

ANF Bulls could take heart in the possibility the stock is oversold, but I would not look to allocate risk capital to anything but a short position.

My Trade: Buy the ANF Dec Weekly 26.5-25.5 Put Spread for about $0.25
Risk: $25 per 1 lot
Reward: up to $75 per 1 lot
Break-even stock price at expiration: $26.25

Greeks of this Trade
Delta: Short
Gamma: Long
Theta: Short
Vega: Long

I like this trade because it offers a favorable return on my money, with my downside price target aligned with the measured move target.

Bank of Montreal (BMO) is a Canadian-based provider of personal banking, investment services, mortgage loans, credit lines, and a variety of other banking and financial services for both retail customers and small to mid-sized businesses primarily in North America. As of the time of this post (12:45PM CST), BMO is currently trading at 73.05, down 0.87% on the day. The stock is trading towards the upper end of its 52 week range of 60.34-78.56 as it printed the highs for the year in early September, only to fall to near term lows of 67.42 in mid-October as part of the broader US market pullback. BMO has since recovered over half of these losses, and is set to report earnings pre-market tomorrow, 12/2/2014.

BMO has traded with mixed to negative results the last eight quarters of earnings, trading lower exactly half of the time with a historical-average directional move of 1.1%. It should be noted however that the largest move during this period was a selloff of -4.8% on 12/3/2013 after BMO announced better than expected profits, but also that it would be increasing its quarterly dividend payout. The options market is currently pricing in an implied move of 6.48% by the monthly expiration date of 12/20/2014, which translates to roughly a $4.70 move in the underlying stock. While BMO has found some temporary support on the current daily chart and on the cloud, I will not be looking for a directional play in this stock. Instead I will be looking to trade a neutral strategy and looking to capitalize on the inflated premiums going into tomorrow’s earnings announcement.

BHP Billiton Limited (BHP) is an Australian metals and mining corporation whose primary focus is the production of iron ore and processed natural energy resources such as petroleum. As of the writing of this article (11:15AM CST), BHP is currently trading slightly higher on the day, up 0.37% to 55.40. The stock is currently trading well within the lower portion of its 52 week range of 54.35-73.91 however, just over $1.00 off of the lows for the year which printed late last week. Investor reaction to a potential slowdown in Chinese demand for the company’s industrial metals products has been pointed to as one possible reason for the stock’s steep decline off of 52 week highs which were made in late July.

Today we noticed an interesting block trade taking place in BHP, as a buyer purchased a huge lot of 12,500 Feb ’15 47.5 puts, lifting the offer at $0.59 (total cash outlay of $737,500 before commissions). As this trade went off against an open interest in the option of just 434 contracts, we can safely say this was an OPENING transaction, looking to profit on further anticipated downside in BHP headed into early next year. In addition to this large bearish transaction, a perfunctory glance at the technicals in BHP would also indicate that this stock is primed to move LOWER, as it clings to support just above the recently printed 52 week lows and heads lower, well under the Ichimoku cloud on a daily chart. As such, we will be looking to piggyback this large Put buyer and hope to capture profits as BHP continues its move to the downside.

Trade: I am long the BHP Feb 47.5 Puts for $0.58
Risk: $58 per 1 lot
Breakeven: $46.92

Hewlett-Packard Company (HPQ) provides computer hardware and software products for individuals and small to medium sized businesses, in addition to offering a wide variety of enterprise services such as hosting, storage and networking solutions to its larger commercial end users. As of the time of this post (9:35AM CST), HPQ is currently trading up modestly on the day to 37.90, a gain of 1.07%. The stock is trading in the upper end of its 52 week range of 25.09-38.25, as it has recovered well from a pullback in mid-October following news that the company plans to split into two separate companies that could better focus on their respective business concentrations by the end of the fiscal year 2015. Hewlett-Packard will be split into Hewlett-Packard Enterprise to focus on its storage, networking and other enterprise services, and HP Inc. which will remain focused on computing hardware and software and the company’s foray into 3D printing. HPQ is set to report earnings today, 11/15/2014, after the market close.

HPQ has traded with evenly mixed results following the last eight quarters of earnings, posting four higher sessions and four lower sessions immediately following the EPS release. While the directional reactions have been largely mixed, HPQ has shown some degree of consistency in terms of its volatility following earnings, posting an average historical move of around 9.8% during this time period. Currently the options market seems to be under pricing the anticipated move in HPQ at just 3.73%, representing a $1.42 move in the underlying stock based on the current pricing of the ATM straddle. As HPQ has rebounded well following the digestion of the announced split and the stock remains well above the cloud, relevant moving averages and continues to press its 52 week highs, I will be looking to get long this name into earnings this afternoon.

Trade: Buying the HPQ Nov 28th Weekly 38.5-39.5 Call Spreads for $0.28
Risk: $28 per 1 lot
Reward: $72 per 1 lot
Breakeven: $38.73

Deere & Company (DE) is a manufacturer of heavy machinery and vehicles for a range of agricultural and construction applications. The company’s stock is currently trading around $87.50 in a 52 week range of $78.88-$94.89. The stock has been underperforming the market this year having sold off 4.31% year to date. Technically, the stock is trading in bullish territory, above the Ichimoku cloud, but the stock is set to report earnings before the bell tomorrow.

DE has been very weak on earnings over the past 8 quarters. The stock has sold off on earnings day 7 of the past 8 quarters with an average move of 2.6%. Currently the options market is implying a move of around $2.30 by Friday’s close which prices in a move of around 2.63%, right in line with the historical average. Despite the strength DE may be showing technically the stock does appear to be relatively weak in today’s session. With a dismal historical performance record it is difficult to justify anything but a short in DE ahead of earnings. Using the move being implied by the options market I am looking to get short DE with a downside target of around $85.20.

Trade: Buying the DE Nov 28th Weekly 86-85 Put Spreads for $0.23
Risk: $23 per 1 lot
Reward: $77 per 1 lot
Breakeven: $85.77

Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. (HTZ) is an international provider of vehicle and equipment rentals to individual, professional, and corporate customers. At the time of this post (12:00PM CST) HTZ is currently trading at 24.30, up 2.2% on the day. The stock has traded in a fairly wide 52 week range of 18.50-31.61, though most of the volatility in share prices has taken place just over the last few months. 52 week highs printed in Hertz in late August, but the stock was unable to hold its gains and sold off hard into the lows just two months later on news of continued accounting reviews and mixed investor sentiment regarding activist investor Carl Icahn’s 8% stake in the company. Hertz has managed to rebound off of these lows however, and has held up fairly well following last Friday’s news that the company had found its new CEO in John Tague. HTZ is set to report earnings today, 11/24/2014 after the market close.

Over the past eight quarters, HTZ has traded with mixed to negative results following earnings, trading lower on 5 out of 8 sessions immediately following the EPS release. HTZ has been a relatively modest mover on these sessions, with an average historical move of just 1.6% during this time period. The options market is currently pricing in a move of about 3.87% or $0.95 in the underlying stock following this afternoon’s report. Despite the recent rebound in HTZ as it has rebounded off of 52 week lows last month, I will be leaning towards a resumption in bearish sentiment, and looking to get short this name into earnings.

Tiffany & Co. (TIF) is a company that operates in five segments around the world offering jewelry and other luxury goods such as timepieces and leather goods. The company’s stock is currently trading around $103.70 in a 52 week range of $80.29-$105.66. The stock has done relatively well this year with shares rallying by over 11.5% year to date. TIF has seen a large spike in options volume today as more than 13 times the average daily options volume has already traded in the name today. TIF is expected to report earnings tomorrow morning before the bell.

TIF has been relatively strong on earnings over the past 8 quarters. The stock has rallied 5 of the past 8 quarters with an average move of 4.0%. TIF is now beginning to look bullish on a chart as well. The stock is now well above the Ichimoku Cloud and is also trading above both of its major moving averages on the cloud. With the options market implying around a $3.50 move in TIF by December expiration this would give me an upside target of around $107.20.

Potential Trade: I sell the TIF Dec 105-100 Put Spreads for $2.25
Risk: $275 per 1 lot
Reward: $225 per 1 lot
Breakeven: $102.75

The Gap, Inc. (GPS) is a U.S. retail operator that sells apparel and accessories for men, women and children directly to consumers. Besides just operating its Gap retail stores, the company’s corporate umbrella also includes well-known retail apparel chains such as Banana Republic, Old Navy, and several lesser recognized brands as well. At the time of this post (10:30AM CST) GPS is currently trading at 39.95, up around 0.40% on the day. The stock has traded relatively tightly over the course of the past year, in a 52 week range of 35.46-46.85. The highs for the stock were printed in early September, followed by a sharp decline down to the lows in early to mid October on an unfavorable investor reaction to news that current Growth, Innovation and Digital president Art Peck, would become the company’s new Chief Executive Officer in February 2015. The stock has since found support and has traded up strongly over the past month after digesting this news. The Gap, Inc. is set to report third quarter earnings today, 11/20/2014 after the closing bell.

GPS has traded neutrally to relatively bullish historically following the last eight quarters of earnings reports, posting a positive day on 5 out of 8 sessions immediately following the EPS release. GPS has not been a very volatile post earnings mover over this time period, posting an average historical move of just 1.6%. Considering the historical average over the past two years, the options market is currently projecting an outsized move on third quarter earnings of around 3.75% or a $1.50 move in the underlying stock. GPS remains very strong technically, trading into the Ichimoku Cloud and remaining above all relevant moving averages. As the near term bullish trend appears to remain firmly intact, I will be looking to initiate a long position into the earnings release this afternoon.

“Keurig Green Mountain, Inc. (GMCR) is a producer and seller most well known for its single-serve Coffee, Tea, and Hot Cocoa beverage products. Keurig Green Mountain distributes these offerings as well as larger coffee bean products and other specialty beverage items both wholesale to retailers and directly to consumers via its website. GMCR at the time of this post (11:30AM CST) is currently trading at 155.15, down 1.26% on the day. GMCR is still well within the upper area of its 52 week range of 60.65-158.87, coming off of fresh highs for the year that printed during yesterday’s session. The company is set to report its third quarter earnings today after the closing bell.

GMCR has traded with mixed to bullish reactions following the last two years of earnings reports, moving higher on 5 out of 8 of these sessions. The average historical move post-EPS through this period has been 14.9%, although it is noteworthy that the average move with a positive reaction has been a much higher 21.68%, with smaller relative changes in the stock price following the three negative earnings reactions. The options market is currently pricing in a relatively moderate move of 13.10 in GMCR, which would represent just an 8.45% change in the underlying stock. As the stock is currently trading extremely well, just off its freshly made 52 week highs and above the upward sloping Ichimoku Cloud and all relevant moving averages, I am bullish this name and looking to put on a long position into the earnings release this afternoon.”

Target Corporation (TGT) is one of the top-10 largest retailers in the U.S., providing a wide selection of household goods, apparel, electronics, personal care items, pharmacy services and more. Nearly 200 of Target’s approximately 1,800 U.S. brick & mortar locations are known as “SuperTargets”, and also provide a full range of grocery, deli and fresh bakery items on top of the standard offerings. Target Corporation is set to report third quarter earnings 11/19 before the opening bell, and as of this post (11:00AM CST), TGT is trading around 66.80, down a modest 0.50% on the day and still well within the upper area of its 52 week trading range of 54.66-68.28.

Earnings reactions from the last eight quarters’ reports have been evenly mixed, with TGT trading higher exactly half of the time (4 out of 8 sessions immediately following the EPS release), with an average historical move during this period of approximately 4.2%. The options market is currently implying a move of approximately $2.50 in TGT following tomorrow’s EPS release, which would represent about a 3.73% move in the underlying stock, slightly below the historical average. Also as mentioned above, TGT is trading strongly just off of the highs for the year, and remains above both the upward sloping Ichimoku Cloud and the relevant moving averages. For these reasons, I am currently bullish TGT and will be looking to get long into the earnings report tomorrow.