Biggest Bearish Activity 5.16.2013

Bear Market Sell Puts.pngPaper bought 5,000 GME Jun 38 Puts for $2.13 (2.9 times usual volume) with stock at $38.59
Paper bought 823 JNY Nov 13 Puts for $0.80 (4 times usual volume) with stock at $15.03
Paper bought 1,000 LFC Oct 37.5 Puts for $1.75 (10 times usual volume) with stock at $41.06
Paper bought 714 TEX Jun 32 Puts for $1.35 (4. times usual volume) with stock at $32.68

Youku Tudou – No Longer Small Potatoes? 5.16.2013

 

Youku announced 1Q earnings this morning, and the stock has decline on worse-than-expected EPS, but seems to be receiving support due to an improved forecast for 2Q earnings.  Revenues showed a decline quarter over quarter, but maintained a year over year earnings improvement of 21%.  The company, like many others in its field, is currently investing heavily in mobile software development and advertising partnerships and continues to consolidate its operations after last August’s merger. As such, near term losses are expected to be compensated for by long-term improvements in mobile and advertising revenue. 

China is on the verge of becoming the world’s largest mobile software and content market, and as the Central Executive Committee seems to have little interest in rolling back censorship laws it appears that Youku Tudou has what amounts to a captive audience.  However it appears that others are interested in cutting into Youku’s market.  Baidu, China’s leading online search engine, has expressed interest in entering into the streaming content market.  Analysts are wary of this move, however, comparing the possibility to Google’s floundering attempt to monetize Youtube.  The longer Baidu and other competitors delay, the firmer Youku Tudou’s foothold becomes and the better equipped the company is to cope with any future incidence of competitive market entry.

bradyr@keeneonthemarket.com

Unusual Options Activity 5.16.2013

Chart Bloomberg Keene OptionsPaper sold 9,266 WMT May 77.5 Puts for $0.20 (2 times usual volume) with stock at $78.31

Paper bought 5,000 GME Jun 38 Puts for $2.13 (2.9 times usual volume) with stock at $38.59

Paper sold 8,674 CTSH Jun 62.5 Puts for $1.65 with stock at $64.12

Paper bought 900 PXP Jun 45 Calls for $1.25 (2.7 times usual volume) with stock at $45.10
Paper bought 5,000 LUV Jun 14 Straddles for $0.90 (5.8 times usual volume) with stock at $14.15

The Tesla Craze 5.16.2013

Specifically, TSLA is planning to sell 2.7 million common shares and $450 million in convertible notes. The estimated sum of both these transactions is roughly around $830 million. Additionally, founder Elon Musk said he will purchase $100 M in stock. Of this $100 M, $45 M will be purchased in the offering and the remaining $55 M will be purchased in the form of a direct placement, due to legal restrictions. Musk was also a buyer of the firm’s September offering, where he purchased only $1 M of the $225 M deal, nevertheless still a buyer.

The funds from this transaction are supposedly to repay the US Department of Energy and the timing of the transaction couldn’t be better after this epic run in the stock. TSLA has raged nearly 61% after the most recent quarter. The loan from the government is roughly $465. These funds were used in the development of the Model S roaster.

From the prospective of the options market, TSLA volatility has been on a tear. The current IV percentile is about 92%. Meaning that only 8% of the historic observations are above current levels. The volume weighted price average of the stock is roughly $91.95, therefore maybe look out for a $92.5 strike pin in the stock this Friday. However there is only 1.5k in open interest. The May 2013 100 calls have over 12k in open interest. Interesting either way.

Tesla Craze Chart 5.16.2013

salerno.mark.a@gmail.com

Biggest Bullish Activity 5.15.2013

bullish Option Trade earnings.pngPaper buys 808 ITT Oct 30 Calls for $1.70 (71.6 usual volume) with stock at $30.28
Paper buys 800 SIRI Jun 3.5 Calls $0.14 (2.4 times usual volume) with stock at $3.53
Paper buys 9,975 MNKD Jan 5 Calls for $1.35 (3.9 times usual volume) with stock at $5.06
Paper buys 4,069 WM Oct 42 Calls for $1.30 (2.7 times usual volume) with stock at $41.59
Paper buys 460 PBF Dec 40 Calls for $1.25 (2.4 times usual volume) with stock at $30.93

Biggest Bearish Activity 5.15.2013

Bears Bear Market RagePaper buys 2,000 DE Jun 85 Puts for $0.68 (4.3 times usual volume) with stock at $90.18
Paper buys 8,719 LYV Jun 13 Puts for $0.425 (41.1 times usual volume) with stock at $13.98
Paper buys 1,369 SNTA Jun 7.5 Puts for $1.30 (2.1 times usual volume) with stock at $8.05
Paper buys 2,000 CTAS Jun 45 Puts for $0.90 (6.6 times usual volume) with stock at $42.50