Biggest Bearish Activity 5.13.2013

Bears Bear Market RagePaper bought 10,990 TSL Jun 4.5 Puts for $0.19 (13.6 times usual volume) with stock at $5.75
Paper bought 2,100 BPI Jun 7.5 Puts for $0.10 (3.5 times usual volume) with stock at $10.49
Paper bought 7,000 RIG Aug 43 Puts for $0.45 (12 times usual volume) with stock at $53.93
Paper bought 5,000 KR Jun 33 Puts for $0.70 (3.2 times usual volume) with stock at $33.96

Unusual Options Activity 5.13.2013

Chartt Options Trading CNBCPaper bought 10,990 TSL Jun 4.5 Puts for $0.19 (13.6 times usual volume) with stock at $5.75
Paper bought 6,400 SNE Jun 19 Calls for $0.90 (4.7 times usual volume) with stock at $18.64
Paper bought 999 AGNC Jan 32 Calls for $0.59 (2.3 times usual volume) with stock at $29.02
Paper bought 575 SPWR May 20 Calls for $1.10 (2.3 times usual volume) with stock at $19.08
Paper bought 10,000 DNR Sep 20 Calls for $0.53 (4.5 times usual volume) with stock at $17.83

Seasonality in Gold? Gold returns form 2004-2012

Overlaying the charts can help one find patterns or test purported myths that Wall Street and media sources love to sell. This chart helps investors derive one’s own conclusion, without a media bias.

The second chart is simply the YTD of spot gold. The chart is rather bearish, with all of its moving averages above it and sloping down. On the other hand, before everyone gets all bearish in the short term, the dollar index looks like it got rejected from the $83.5 level, which may support the gold story.

All things considered, gold is a very controversial asset. The fundamental story of the Fed and other central banks printing billions a month supports the story, but price has said other things as of late. Bull or bear, one should always keep a keen eye on the charts.

sg2013051063468 Gold 5.13.2013

salerno.mark.a@gmail.com

A Slick Way To Short Debt to GDP

While the market can stay irrational more than one can stay solvent, the Japanese situation seems to be unraveling as irrational markets fade away and fundamentals prevail. In recent news and market action, Japanese government borrowing rates have surged before and after market limit-ups. Additionally the USD/JPY currency pair broke out of a consolidating pattern to the upside. And finally other Asian countries have started to pursue an easing policy.

The chart below displays USD/JPY. Some may theorize that when there is a halt in JGB trading, investors turn to the currency market as a proxy to do their JGB selling. The idea behind this trade is that should the Japanese government pursue any more unconventional policy, investors will want US dollar as opposed to Yen (especially if they devalue).

The USD/JPY saw resistance at 100 for just about a month, now this level should provide solid support, but calling for a massive tide change can be dangerous.

5.10.2013 USDJPY