
CBOE TV Interview 8.10.2012

As a trader, I am looking to profit from the front-end yield curve inversions. I would buy the front duration, sell the bottom of the curve X 2 and then buy a further duration, creating a butterfly spread.
David Cornes holds a degree in economics from the University of Montana.
The Seattle-based upscale retailer announced an 11% drop in income, however the company stated that this was common, as their largest sale of the year took place during the reported quarter. To me, this is not bearish news. Sales increased 7.4% to $2.92 billion with same-store sales increasing 4.5%. They reported earnings of $156 million or 75 cents a share. Analysts were expecting earnings of 74 cents a share with revenue of $2.96 billion. Last year the company reported earnings of $175 million and 80 cents a share.
Nordstroms guidance rose, with same-store sales expected to rise around 6.5%, an increase from the previous expected rise of 4-6%. Full year earnings expectations also rose to between $3.4 and $3.5 per share from the previous estimate of $3.30 to $3.45 a share. Nordstrom Rack posted a 7.7% increase in sales.
I consider the demand for Nordstrom and Nordstrom Rack relatively inelastic as they are niche markets that fit both sides of the U.S. consumer demographic. I would consider JWN a decent buy and hold opportunity. Maybe buying a condor in this stock would be a way to generate income in the near term.
David Cornes holds a degree in economics from the University of Montana.
The Hang Seng dropped .7% today retreating from their 3 month high reached yesterday. Short selling
accounted for 12.2% of total turnover today. Weak earnings hit Li & Fung, as their core operating
profit for the first half fell 22%, sending them to their worse single day loss since 1992. Goldman Sachs
downgraded them to neutral from buy and their target price was cut to $17 from $ 18.60. China Yurun
Food group and China Datang Corp both dropped 6.1 & 4.7% respectively. China Overseas Land and
Investment reversed gains to finish .1% down after announcing a first half profit gain of 9.3%, slightly
lower than expected.
The FTSEurofirst is currently down .4% due to weak Chinese data showing Chinese exports rose by just
1% from a year earlier, much lower than expected. Alternative fuel maker Novozymes was among the
worst performers losing 2.9%. Indices are down around Europe with the DAX down .82%, the CAC down
1% and the Madrid General down .87%.
Bank of Ireland posted a 907B Euro loss in H1 compared to 722M a year ago, stock is down 6.1%
Goldman continues to retreat from Japan selling contractor Fujita Corp for 636M.
Commodities appear to be finishing weak with crude, natural gas and silver down over 1% and gold
down just under .5%.
Contributer Chris Rygh is currently pursuing his MBA in Wisconsin and has a passion for the Market.
Comments can be directed to ryghcw19@uww.edu
Trade: Selling the JCP Aug 19-18 Put Spread and 25-26 Call Spread Condor for $.35
Risk: $65 per 1 lot
Reward: $35 per 1 lot
Notes: good risk vs reward that JCP moves less than the measured move of 14.4%
American Express (AXP) lost -2.50%, the Dow’s biggest loss, with Visa and Mastercard also losing ground on the day as US economy data shows customer spending declining.
In U.S. economic headlines, initial jobless claims, an indicator of cuts to the labor force, fell by 6,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 361,000. Economists had forecast that number would rise to 370,000. Claims from the prior week were revised slightly higher.
In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 added 0.4% for its fifth consecutive day of gains, despite a downbeat survey from the European Central Bank that showed expectations for the euro-zone economy to contract more sharply this year than in previous estimates.
In corporate news, MDRX raged 18.44% after the electronic health record company raised its full year earnings outlook, though second quarter results fell short of estimates. Monster Beverage (MSNT) dropped near 10% after they missed earnings and estimates. Wendy’s (WEN) rose 1% after the fast food chain rose in sales and profitability over the last quarter.
The Fed is playing with the idea of dropping rates on longer duration treasuries to spark riskier investment practices such as lifting the stock market. As you can see from the 3-D treasury graph over time below, Yields have been flattened towards zero across the board with risk of the longer duration bonds falling more every time that Bernanke opens his mouth. Stock market bulls are constructing their portfolios to reap the benefits of money flooding out of the treasury market into stocks. This is demonstrated by the outperformance of blue chip stocks.
Although I am bullish on interest rates on the long term, I believe that the Fed will be forced to step in and buy long duration bonds before the economy bounces back to full health.
David Cornes holds a degree in economics from the University of Montana.