Morning Rage 8.10.2012

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The Hang Seng dropped .7% today retreating from their 3 month high reached yesterday. Short selling
accounted for 12.2% of total turnover today. Weak earnings hit Li & Fung, as their core operating
profit for the first half fell 22%, sending them to their worse single day loss since 1992. Goldman Sachs
downgraded them to neutral from buy and their target price was cut to $17 from $ 18.60. China Yurun
Food group and China Datang Corp both dropped 6.1 & 4.7% respectively. China Overseas Land and
Investment reversed gains to finish .1% down after announcing a first half profit gain of 9.3%, slightly
lower than expected.

The FTSEurofirst is currently down .4% due to weak Chinese data showing Chinese exports rose by just
1% from a year earlier, much lower than expected. Alternative fuel maker Novozymes was among the
worst performers losing 2.9%. Indices are down around Europe with the DAX down .82%, the CAC down
1% and the Madrid General down .87%.

Bank of Ireland posted a 907B Euro loss in H1 compared to 722M a year ago, stock is down 6.1%

Goldman continues to retreat from Japan selling contractor Fujita Corp for 636M.

Commodities appear to be finishing weak with crude, natural gas and silver down over 1% and gold
down just under .5%.

Contributer Chris Rygh is currently pursuing his MBA in Wisconsin and has a passion for the Market.
Comments can be directed to ryghcw19@uww.edu

Trade of the Day (JCP) 8.9.2012

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Rage - Kid2Trade:  Selling the JCP Aug 19-18 Put Spread and 25-26 Call Spread Condor for $.35

Risk: $65 per 1 lot

Reward: $35 per 1 lot

Notes:  good risk vs reward that JCP moves less than the measured move of 14.4%

Doherty at the Close 8.9.2012

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American Express (AXP) lost -2.50%, the Dow’s biggest loss, with Visa and Mastercard also losing ground on the day as US economy data shows customer spending declining. 

In U.S. economic headlines, initial jobless claims, an indicator of cuts to the labor force, fell by 6,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 361,000. Economists had forecast that number would rise to 370,000. Claims from the prior week were revised slightly higher.

In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 added 0.4% for its fifth consecutive day of gains, despite a downbeat survey from the European Central Bank that showed expectations for the euro-zone economy to contract more sharply this year than in previous estimates.

In corporate news, MDRX raged 18.44% after the electronic health record company raised its full year earnings outlook, though second quarter results fell short of estimates. Monster Beverage (MSNT) dropped near 10% after they missed earnings and estimates. Wendy’s (WEN) rose 1% after the fast food chain rose in sales and profitability over the last quarter.

Treasury Yield Curve Special 8.9.2012

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The Fed is playing with the idea of dropping rates on longer duration treasuries to spark riskier investment practices such as lifting the stock market. As you can see from the 3-D treasury graph over time below, Yields have been flattened towards zero across the board with risk of the longer duration bonds falling more every time that Bernanke opens his mouth.  Stock market bulls are constructing their portfolios to reap the benefits of money flooding out of the treasury market into stocks. This is demonstrated by the outperformance of blue chip stocks.

3dYield

Although I am bullish on interest rates on the long term, I believe that the Fed will be forced to step in and buy long duration bonds before the economy bounces back to full health.
Bloomberg Yield

David Cornes holds a degree in economics from the University of Montana.

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Halftime Report 8.9.2012

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Everyone that I talk to is bearish on this market. After brainstorming, we figured out why markets are rising, even though our economy still appears to be injured. Our answer was QE3.

I am satisfied that the market did not rally after the release of today’s initial claims number beat expectations. Do you see an improvement in the job market?

S&P 500 futures were down 2 points to 1396.25, Dow futures fell 26 points to 13094, and NASDAQ futures gained 2 points to 2708.75.

Gold futures rose 70 cents to $1616.70 and WTI crude futures were up 20 cents to $93.55.

Soybeans rose 46.40 cents to $16.4640 and corn rose 12.60 cents to $8.2320.

Elizabeth Arden Inc. (RDEN) gained over 10% after reporting increased sales and margins, yet a 33% fall in profit.

E-Trade Financial Corp. (ETFC) gained 6% after news that the current CEO will depart. The position will be filled by Frank Petrilli, a current member of the board of directors.

Yelp Inc. (YELP) gained over 6%, making this week’s gains nearly 30% after a report of a 67% gain in revenue during the previous quarter.

Boingo Wireless (WIFI) fell over 23% after reporting earnings below analysts’ estimates. This happens to be one of my least favorite companies in the country as I receive daily Spam e-mail requesting that I use their services.

David Cornes holds a degree in economics from the University of Montana.

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Signs the Market is Getting Complacent – Put/Call Ratio and Bull Pct. Index – 8.9.2012

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As you can see in the graph below, the S&P 500 curve and the Put/Call ratio were near convergence. The relatively low Put/Call ratio in this case coupled with the S&P lingering around the significant 1400 level leads me to believe that a rally would not be out of the question with macroeconomic expectations such as QE3. PutCallRatioGood

David Cornes holds a degree in economics from the University of Montana.

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