Morning Rage 6.1.2012

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China’s Hang Seng also finished in the Red with Aluminum Corp of China their biggest loser down 4.76%
and Cathay Pacific Airways Shining up 4.17%.

China’s Official Purchasing Index fell to 50.4% a new low on the year showing slowing growth for the
giant.

European shares seem to be following the lead of Asian with the FTSEurofirst 300 currently down 1.5%
which hit its lowest level of 952.55 since December 20th earlier in trading.

The Futures markets is heading in a downward direction this morning with crude, natural gas, gold and
silver all down of which energy was hit hardest both dropping over 2%.

The Monster employment index came in this morning, showing the US a gleam of light, up 3% with 13 of
their 20 industries showing positive annual growth trends.

Contributer Chris Rygh is currently pursuing his MBA in Wisconsin and has a passion for the Market.
Comments can be directed to ryghcw19@uww.edu

Doherty At the Close 5.31.2012

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In global news, the International Monetary Fund, or IMF, began discussing contingency plans for a rescue loan to Spanish banks in the event the country fails to find the funds need to bail out failed bank Bankia, according to Dow Jones Newswires. Spanish officials later dismissed the report, fueling the late day loss. A three-year rescue loan for Spain could be as much as €300 billion, one person said, although any bailout could involve smaller, shorter-term loans. An issue in any bailout of Spain, which could end up being bigger than those already agreed to for Greece, Ireland and Portugal, would be the size of the contributions made by the IMF and the EU and where those funds would come from. Spain needs €19 billion to rescue Bankia, but its own bank bailout fund has only about €9 billion left.

Also Thursday, the Commerce Department lowered its estimate for first-quarter economic growth to 1.9% from 2.2%, in line with economists’ expectation that the U.S. economy slowed more than initially thought during the period. The price index for personal consumption increased 2.4%, as previously estimated.

As this blogger predicted on Tuesday, Facebook (FB) found its bottom at $28 and rallied late in the day, finishing up 5.11% at $29.60. However, Facebook remains well below its $38 IPO price. Joy Global (Joy) skid -5.1% as it lowered its full year projections for the international market, citing loss in European and Chinese demand. Ciena (CIEN) rallied as one of today’s top gainers finishing at $13.55, up 14.06%.

Looking forward, tomorrow will be a major day for the macro economy as the unemployment rate and nonfarm payroll values are released in the morning. Additionally, personal spending and private payroll numbers will also be available. Analysts expect the Nonfarm payroll numbers to be at 150K and the unemployment rate to be 8.1%, mirroring last month’s value.

Thomas Doherty is a student at Villanova University majoring in Finance and Economics. All questions and comments can be sent to Thomas@KeeneOnTheMarket.com

For more information, Follow Andrew on twitter at https://twitter.com/#!/KeeneOnMarket or like us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/KeeneOnTheMkt

Trade of the Day (ASNA) 5.31.2012

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Unprofitable:  I lose money on this trade if ASNA closes under $18.35 on June 15, 2012.  The most I can lose on this trade is the amount the Spread can be . 

Reason I Like This Trade:  I think that ASNA will have strong earnings, but if it breaks $18.50 it could be goodnight ASNA.  In this strategy I make money if ASNA goes up, flat, or down less than 3%

UPDATE 6.4.2012  This Spread is worth $.32 and if the stock can rally above $18.50 then I will collect the whole credit I sold the Spread for.  If it closes above $18.35, it will be a profitable trade.

UPDATE 6.5.2012  This Spread is worth $.35, but I will leave this trade on and hope for a POP higher in the stock.

UPDATE 6.7.2012  This Spread is worth $.15, but since it is such a small position I will leave this trade on.

UPDATE 6.11.2012 This Spread is worth $.10 and I am leaving this position still on.

UPDATE 6.13.2012  With 2 days left, this trade looks like it will be worth zero, but no trade is a winner until it is closed.

UPDATE 6.27.2012  This trade went out worthless and moving to the next trade.

Halftime Report 5.31.2012

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The S&P 500 dropped 9 points, -0.7%, to $1,305 with energy and material stocks leading the decline. The NASDAQ fell 23 points, -0.8%, to $2,814.

Among the day’s economic data, the US economy added 133,000 private sector jobs in May. However, this number was rather disappointing as economists expected the private sector to add 150,000 jobs. Additionally, the number of US workers filing new applications for unemployment benefits increased past industry forecasts. “You take the two together and the labor market is not what you want right now,” said Jim McDonald, chief investment strategist at Northern Trust in Chicago.

This downbeat unemployment report comes on the eve of the government’s closely watched unemployment report Friday morning. The unemployment report has fallen short of expectations for the past two months. Analysts expect non-farm jobs to increase by 150,000 in May with the market moving accordingly with tomorrow’s report. The Commerce Department lowered its estimate for first-quarter U.S. economic growth to 1.9% from 2.2%, in line with economists’ expectation that the U.S. economy slowed more than initial thought during the period. The price index for personal consumption increased 2.4%, as previously estimated.

European markets fell, erasing earlier gains after the downbeat U.S. data. The Stoxx Europe 600 slid -0.7% after slumping -1.5% on Wednesday.

Shares of Facebook (FB) continued to decline Thursday, down another -4.26%, and are now trading below $27 at $26.99. Once again, this marks a major loss from their IPO price of $38 and the $28 price Facebook at which Facebook was initially marketed. Joy Global (JOY), a mining equipment manufacturer, skidded -4.87% as it lowered its full year guidance on a slowing international market in Europe and more importantly, China. Ciena (CIEN) rallied 11.45% after they reported a fiscal Q2 adjusted profit that topped analyst expectations of a slight loss. TiVO Inc. (TIVO) dropped -6.86% as the DVR maker posted larger than expected quarterly losses due to litigation costs and updated a downbeat outlook on weaker sales due to on demand and cable services.

Thomas Doherty is a student at Villanova University majoring in Finance and Economics. All questions and comments can be sent to Thomas@KeeneOnTheMarket.com

For more information, Follow Andrew on twitter at https://twitter.com/#!/KeeneOnMarket or like us on facebook: https://www.facebook.com/KeeneOnTheMkt

Movers and Shakers (TIVO) 5.31.2012

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TiVo’s first-quarter loss of $0.17 a share was wider than the analyst expectations of $0.15 cents a share. TiVo also announced that it expected a second quarter loss of $28 million to $30 million and service and technology revenue of $53 to $55 million. Previously, analysts had expected a loss of $16 million, almost doubled in current expected losses. The majority of the loss is associated with litigation expenses in TiVo’s lawsuit with Verizon Communication (VZ) over patent copyrights. The California based DVR provider has seen major losses over the past few years as rising costs and increasing competition from cable companies and on demand services continue to pressure TiVo’s bottom line.

For the period ending April 30, TiVo reported a loss of $20.8 million, or $0.17 a share. Compared to the previous year’s profits of $139 million, or $1.04 a share, TiVo has significantly increased costs against their bottom line. Net revenue rose 48% to $67.8 million, while service-and-technology revenue climbed 40% to $54.5 million. Gross margin widened to 51.1% from to 46.1%. TiVo has not issued dividends in more than two years.

Thomas Doherty is a student at Villanova University majoring in Finance and Economics. All questions and comments can be sent to Thomas@KeeneOnTheMarket.com

Read more about earnings by www.keeneonthemarket.com

Morning Rage 5.31.2012

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The Yen was up due to rising fears of the Euro, making for more costly exports in Japan.

The Hang Seng lost under .5% today with Land holding companies dragging the index down. China
overseas land and Investment LTD lost 4.25% and China Resources Land LTD lost over 2.5%.

The FTSEurofirst 300 is managing to stay afloat so far, ahead of US Employment data, being propped up
by the energy and banking sectors. Bank stocks are up .6% after 4 straight session losses.

The German retail sales rose .6% compared to an estimated .2% and the jobless rate fell to a 20 year low
of 6.7% from 7%.

Broadcasting companies News Corp, Disney, CBS and Comcast will be among the stocks to take a look at
today as they go to court to stop an internet television startup alleging the provider, Aereo, copy’s and
retransmits their programming.

Commodities are starting out similar to yesterday with crude, gold and silver all trading positive and
natural gas in the red this morning.

Contributer Chris Rygh is currently pursuing his MBA in Wisconsin and has a passion for the Market.
Comments can be directed to ryghcw19@uww.edu