Now to what is implied for the coming event, because the AAPL weekly options only have three days until expiration, they will be an organic way to derive what is implied for the event today after the close. Using a KOTM implied volatility & time based model, we calculated the one-sigma move (68% probability within) to be roughly $28 up/down or about 68% chance we settle between $427 and $370 by the close on Friday. The two sigma move (95% probability within) is $56 either way or $455 & $342. The implied volatility curve (IV being a measure of risk, supply and demand, relative price, and an input into theoretical models) is displayed below, for it is important to know, especially if one is trading two different months in a spread.
The following chart includes the one and two sigma rolling probability cone, volume profile, and major moving averages (50, 100, & 200). While the chart may seem noisy, it sure does tell us a lot if you listen! AAPL made its ATH of $700 and has been sifting lower since. AAPL is currently below all of its moving averages and massive prior low support sits at around $350 or the bottom part of the two-sigma confidence interval. The ATM (at the money) weekly $400 straddle (lifting the offer) is at about $27.80 (6.7% of stock).
