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Morning Rage 9.17.2012

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I expect the performance of US indices this week to have a more honest QE3 reaction after exploding upward last week. Indices futures for the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq are all down 21.00, 3.25 and 4.25 points respectively.  Metals futures are all down slightly before the market opens with Platinum and Palladium losing the most, 16.10 and 11.70 respectively. Crude futures are down 0.20%.

One of my favorite ETFs to follow in the aftermath of QE3 announcements is SPDR Gold Trust (GLD | $171.8). GLD is down $0.35 in after hours trading after taking a $0.49 gain on Friday. The Oct ATM straddle is priced around $7.00 about a 4% expected move. After the QE3 announcement, a higher probability of currency manipulations around the world will have investors continue to invest in gold.

Apple stock (AAPL | $691.28) is up 2.68 points in pre-market trading to $693.99. Apple set a presale order record with the new iPhone 5. I expect the stock will jump over $700 before the end of the month but, due to the volatility over the past week or so, it may jump back and forth over the $700 line.

Google stock (GOOG | 709.68) was up three and a half points on Friday, only slightly short of its all time high. The stock has hit a resistance point below $715.00. 

Alex Kalish has a master’s in economics from Suffolk U.

Questions, comments and suggestions welcome: alexk@keeneonthemarket.com

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Market Recap 9.14.2012

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In a statement released yesterday the FOMC outlined their plan to purchase $40 billion worth of mortgage bonds every month.  The Committee also announced its intention to continue purchasing long-term debt in an effort to put downward pressure on long-term interest rates. The program means that the Fed will add around $85 billion to its $2.8 trillion balance sheet every month until economic conditions improve.  The program has a more or less open-ended time frame.  The Fed will evaluate the strength of the economy and will continue to ease until economic conditions, mainly unemployment, improve. 

Apple (AAPL) hit a new all time high today of 696.98.  iPhone 5 pre-orders opened today selling out in less than a minute.  The tech giant now has a market cap of over $648 billion.  The iPhone 5 is scheduled to be shipped next Friday.

Consumer prices index saw its biggest gain in 3 years. Retail sales were higher for the second month in a row.

Earnings next week:

Tuesday- FedEx

Wednesday- Auto-Zone, General Mills, Adobe Systems, Bed Bath and Beyond

Thursday- CarMax, ConAgra, Rite Aid, Oracle

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Halftime Report 9.13.2012

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Oil and Gold are both up 6.00 and 0.68, to 1,778 and 98.99 respectively. Platinum futures are up 31.80 and are quickly catching gold. The EUR/USD exchange rate gained 1.13% up a penny and a half to 1.3136 euros per dollar.  Strangely, the US dollar is gaining value against the Japanese Yen, up about $0.77.

Analogic Corporation (ALOG + 13.67%) is a technology company that designs and manufactures advanced medical imaging and security systems. ALOG hit a new high today of 78.73, up about 9.50 points. Shares exploded today after its quarterly results and guidance topped expectations. Analysts expected a EPS of $0.71, a surprised of $0.25 per share as earnings were $0.96.

Bank of America (BAC | + 1.60%) had a second day of huge volume. The stock has been downgraded by at least 5 analysts, yet it continues to creep higher. 226.6 million shares were traded today already.

Google Inc. (GOOG| +$6.16) jumped up almost 6 points in the first half to 712.20. Google has been extremely volatile this week. On Wednesday it was down around 685.00 and gained almost 18.00 points yesterday.

Apple Inc. (AAPL | 1.99%) is up an astounding 13.61 points. Sitting at 696.56, AAPL has hit a new high, again. The iPhone 5 pre-orders were sold out within an hour this morning which may have drove all of the bears away from the stock, after some questioned the value of upgrading.

US economic news released today includes the CPI, retail sales, and industrial production. All reports are released on a monthly basis. Production is down 1.2% overall, with manufacturing losing 0.7%. Retail sales grew 0.9% beating last months 0.8% growth. Finally, CPI grew by 0.6%. Food and Energy prices accounted for 0.5% of this months change, however, year-over-year change in CPI were all energy and food at 1.7%.

Alex Kalish has a master’s degree in economics from Suffolk University.

Questions, comments, and suggestions are welcome: alexk@keeneonthemarket.com.

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Morning Rage 9.12.2012

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Metals are also gaining some ground this morning. Gold futures are up 10.00 points, (0.58%) to 1744.90, and Platinum futures are up 36.00 points, 2.24%, to 1643.00. Brent crude oil for October delivery is at its highest close since August 16th on speculation of a euro zone bailout.

The MBA Purchases Applications, a Mortgage Banker’s Association compilation of various mortgage loan indexes, was released today. The report is released weekly on Wednesdays, and provides a gauge of the demand and momentum for housing. Actual growth rates in the composite index was 11.1%, a change from -2.5%, an 8% change in the purchasing index and a 12% change in the refinance index.

The Home Depot, Inc. (HD | 56.72 [-0.58]) was down a half of a dollar yesterday, but rose in after hours trading a tenth of a dollar. The stock could gain on news from the Mortgage Banker’s Association. The stock is chasing it’s all-time high that hasn’t been since 1999, around 65$. The stock is currently sitting at its 52-week high with the low of 31.03 not seen since last September.

Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (LOW | 28.60 [-.09]) stock was down a tenth of a dollar yesterday, and rose by a nickel in after hours trading. LOW is also peaking towards its highest price ever before the financial crisis around $35. The stock is also bearings it’s 52 week high of 32.29, the lowest 52 week price at 18.53 also not seen since last September. LOW has not steadily risen as HD, but saw a dip in the summer months of 2012.

Apple, Inc. (AAPL) and Facebook (FB) are both up in after hours trading, AAPL releasing its new phone today and Facebook’s CEO, Zuckerberg, reassuring investors that Facebook will continue to dominate social media through mobile devices.

Alex Kalish has a masters degree in economics from Suffolk University.

Suggestions and comments welcome: alexk@keeneonthemarket.com

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Market Recap 9.11.2012

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Metal futures and crude oil futures were mostly flat all day with gold up about 3 points and crude up less than half of a point. Natural gas gained 6.61%.

AIG ($33.03 | – 0.81%) had the highest volume of the day trading 217 million shares. Today’s volume is a result of the US Treasury selling off its stake in AIG reducing their stake from 53% to 16%. The Treasury gained $15 billion in profits from the sale of AIG stock. AIG has been trading between 30 and 35 since mid-August. 

Since the poor report on jobless claims last week and drop in exports in the international report this morning, speculation about a QE3 has increased. An asset purchase could improve exports by reducing the value of the US dollar. 

Important news besides Apple’s (AAPL | 660.59 [-2.15]) iPhone 5 debut tomorrow (possibly available for purchase by September 21st) is Facebook (FB | 19.43 [+0.52]) CEO will speak publicly since the IPO debacle. Facebook has continued its climb up the fourth day in a row hitting prices it hasn’t seen since August 24th.

Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN) announced second-quarter revenue of $3.34 billion, net income of $446 million and earnings per share of 38 cents. The stock stayed even today, slightly down $0.09, but the after-hours announcement caused the stock to surge $0.39 in after hours trading. TXN 52 week low and high is 25.60 -34.24 respectively. 

Some big economic events this Thursday include Jobless claims, Produce Price Index, and Bernanke’s Press Conference.