Unusual Options Activity 4.17.2013

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Down Tick Options SpreadPaper Sold 155850 FXI May 35 Puts for $1.03 (4.1 times usual volume) with stock trading at $34.85
Paper Sold 10000 ABX Jan 15 Puts for $1.175 (2.1 times usual volume) with stock trading at $18.83
Paper Bought 20000 AGNC May 32 Puts for $0.66 (5 times usual volume) with stock trading at $32.08
Paper Sells 25000 BHP Aug 50 Puts for $0.70 (5 times usual volume) with stock trading at $63.77
Paper sells 53810 FXI A[r 38.5 Puts for $3.55 (4.1 times usual volume) with stock at $34.91

What Would A Stock Split Mean for Apple (AAPL)? 2.27.2013

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Well, a stock split is very straightforward. All it means, in this case, is the price will be chopped in half to $224 and the shares outstanding will double. This doesn’t affect the market cap of Apple, or the value of your current shares. The whole point of doing this would be to allow more investors/traders to pick shares of Apple. The concept of stock splits is no revolutionary idea, they are just a way to create some buzz and allow more people to get their hands on the stock. But hey, when the stock is down 36% in 5 months, splitting the stock might not be that bad of an idea! Can I hear a 3-1 or 4-1 split?

Apples pile of cash is no secret to anyone, as it continues to grow as you read this. But what could they possibly do with $135 billion that could satisfy investors? Increase the yield? Sure, if you own 10 million shares and are seeing these payouts extremely beneficial to your pockets. But for the average investor/trader that is not the case. What would be beneficial is to actually do something with that money, such as innovate and buy up companies that bring value. I truly miss the days where Apple would come out with a breath taking product twice a year. Of course Steve Jobs is gone, but is the vision?! I don’t think so, but its clear an ‘X’ factor is missing.

The meeting tomorrow will hopefully clear the air for everyone, and I do expect Apple to announce a stock split. But, what truly matters here is if Tim Cook is focused on quieting the whining from investors, or, focused on getting that Apple mojo back during the Job days.

Author: Peter Nitso
pnitso@yahoo.com
Twitter: @PeterNitso

LinkedIn Networks With Amazon (LNKD, AMZN)? 1.28.2013

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AMZN is the premier international online retailer. The company serves consumers through its retail websites and focuses on selection, price, and convenience. LNKD, on the other hand, is the most popular professional networking website. LNKD offers a variety of professional services for career advanement. Both companies embrace technology in order to drive growth.

LNKD and AMZN both spend a lot of their cash on reinvestment. For example, just under 60% of LNKD revenue was spent on sales/marketing and product development. This kind of investment positions the two firms to benefit in the long run.

The LNKD situation is, interestingly enough, very similar to AMZN. AMZN spends a large portion of its cash on improving its distribution centers and preparing itself to have economies of scale for the future. These two stocks have rich PE multiples and both trade in a similar fashion. This thesis can be tested. The 55-day (a Fibonacci number) price correlation between the two stocks is 0.88. This coefficient is very strong. A reading of 1.00 represents a perfect positive correlation and readings above 0.75 are generally considered strong. This figure simply quantifies the severity of relationship (positive or negative). Therefore AMZN will be a stock to watch for LNKD investors.

Spending for the long-run seems fine, however renowned economist John Maynard Keynes one said, “We are all dead in the long run.” They may be planning for the long run, but if these two companies continue to put up underwhelming EPS the market may eventually discount their massive forward and trailing PE multiple.

salerno.mark.a@gmail.com

AAPL's Cash Hoard 1.25.2013

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Now everyone wants to know… do we see more pain in the near future, and/or what could give this monster a spark to ignite a strong rally?!

First, looking at the chart everything is looking bearish right now. The MACD is pointing straight down, the RSI is embedded in the oversold area (23.15), and the recent decline happened on huge volume. Not what you want to see if you’re a perma-bull…. and I know there are plenty of them out there! I would want to see it clear the 200MA to get me back onto the bullish side. That has been a tough obstacle for it, since it hasn’t been on the bullish side of it since October 5th.

When looking at the wave count of Apple, it seems best to label this downside action as (iii) of 5. Leaving us only with one more impulsive wave to the downside, (v) of 5. I am expecting a bounce here very soon, taking us back up to the $480 level before we begin the final sell-off.

But what could spark Apple once we hit the bottom?!

I am looking for some big news to give investors that ‘Apple love’ to jump back on board! What jumps out to me is a takeover of Twitter. Twitter, is everywhere nowadays…. ESPN, CNBC, Discovery Channel, ABC, History Channel, the list goes on and on. But there seems to be hash tags everywhere I look, and there are no signs of slowing down. They are even using hash tags to connect with students in classes here at the University of Oregon!

I know Apple is not known for buying up companies, but this setup is screaming at Apple to take action. My classrooms are filled with student’s texting/surfing the web on their iPhones. It almost seems rare to find someone with a Droid or Blackberry. Apple knows that college kids drool over its products, and I keep on coming back to teachers using Twitter as a way to communicate instantly with their students.

Cash is obviously not an issue for Apple, so that is out of the picture. It really comes down to if Apple has a need for Twitter, but from by viewpoint, it makes perfect sense!

Author: Peter Nitso

pnitso@yahoo.com

Twitter: @PeterNitso

AAPL 2Hour 1.24.2013