Unuusal Options Activity 6.25.2013

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Chart Breakout Option PremiumPaper sold 49,000 XLF Jul 19 Puts for $0.34 (2.2 times usual volume) with stock at $19.90
Paper sold 48,000 SIRI Jan 2015 2 Puts for $0.15 (2.1 times usual volume) with stock at $3.22
Paper bought 19,829 TSM Jan 2015 17.5 Calls for $2.20 (65.8 times usual volume) with stock at $17.46
Paper bought 1,750 KOL Kil 17 Calls for $0.925 (15.6 times usual volume) with stock at $17.47
Paper bought 2,000 BKS Jan 15 Puts for $2.35 (5.2 times usual volume) with stock at $15.49

Trader takes $4.3 Million Bet in TSM

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Last week, Ebix received a letter from the U.S. Attorney General for the Northern District of Georgia informing them that they were opening an investigation into allegations of business malpractice brought to their attention by pending shareholder class-action lawsuits. Ebix has dealt with allegations such as these before and they were all disclosed in its reports filed with the SEC. Ebix Chairman and CEO Robin Raina believes that these allegations are without merit and will be dismissed. 

Despite CEO affirmations that everything is okay, some speculators believe that shares in EBIX can plummet all the way to zero. According to Gotham City Research, the stock is at most worth $8.00 per share. That is a generous estimate, as they did not take into account any accounting irregularities, regulatory event risk, flat/declining organic growth, tax risk, and other risks identified in their prior reports.

Ebix is also severely in debt. It owes over $80 million and $100 million to creditors and U.S. taxpayers, respectively. 

Last month, Ebix announced results for the first quarter of 2013. Total first quarter 2013 revenue was $52.6 million, an increase of 20% on a YOY basis, as compared to first quarter 2012 revenue of $43.8 million. Diluted earnings per share for the first quarter 2013 rose 13% YOY to $0.45, as compared to $0.40 in the first quarter of 2012.

 

The “Institutional Trade”:

On 5.24.2013 a trader sold 1678 EBIX July 20 Puts for $.60

Their Risk: $1940 per 1 lot
Their Reward: $60 per 1 lot
Breakeven: $19.40
Cash Received: $100,680

On 6.20.2013 These Puts are Trading for $8

This Trade has Lost: (1678 * $8 – $.60 * 100)= $1,241,720

(Full Disclosure: I am long EBIX July 20 Calls for $.20)

Unusual Option Activity:

We define unusual option activity as large block trades that represent a large percentage of daily option volume. The block trade is considered “unusual” if the option volume is above the average daily volume over the past 22 days. At KeeneOnTheMarket.com we scan and analyze order flow from all of the major options exchanges in order to identify any unusual option activity.

Analyzing unusual order flow gives traders a window into what the positions that large institutional players have. The majority of unusual option activity can be traced back to hedge funds, mutual funds, and other large institutions. Knowing where these institutions are placing their bets can be hugely advantageous for any trader. These institutions have informational and technological advantages that the average trader doesn’t have, and the amount of time and analysis that goes into every one of their trades is substantial.  We offer this service through our 7 hour daily LIVE trading room http://bit.ly/135QWt8 or through Premium Twitter feed with all entries, exits, and unusual options activity tweeted all day long: http://bit.ly/11f0L9u .

Order flow can however at times be deceiving. One might logically thing that a large block buyer of calls is bullish on the underlying. This is not always the case. Remember that a large number of participants in the equity options market are hedgers. Long calls are a hedge against short stock, and long puts are a hedge against long stock. With this in mind we have developed a 7 step trading plan that helps filter out unusual option activity that will not provide actionable trade setups. It is by using this plan that we are able to identify the most significant unusual options activity trades every day. 

Biggest Bearish Activity 6.24.2013

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Bear Market Crash VolatilityPaper bought 1,804 LVS Sep 46 Puts for $2.55 (2.4 times usual volume) with stock at $49.03
Paper bought 2,603 LYB Aug 62.5 Puts for $2.80 (2.4 times usual volume) with stock at $64.62
Paper bought 1,500 ETE Jul 55 Puts for $2.25 (4.3 times usual volume) with stock at $55.31
Paper bought 1,261 KLAC Jul 50 Puts for $0.45 (3 times usual volume) with stock at $53.43
Paper bougth 5,000 SLM Jan 20 Puts for $2.94 (2.4 times usual volume) with stock at $21.93

Biggest Bullish Activity 6.24.2013

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Bull Market Stocks BondsPaper bought 3,700 LQD Aug 113 Calls for $0.65 (3.9 times usual volume) with stock at 111.15
Paper bought 2,340 WBMD Sep 30 Calls for $1.05 (10.7 times usual volume) with stock at $25.32
Paper bought 2,849 HALO Jul 7.5 Calls for $0.45 (3.9 times usual volume) with stock at $5.89
Paper bought 1,263 LNC Aug 36 Calls for $1.19 (2.8 times usual volume) with stock at $34.45
Paper bought 500 EUO Aug 19 Calls for $0.65 (2.7 times usual volume) with stock at $19.08

Unusual Option Activity 6.24.2013

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Chart Candle Stick StocksPaper bought 1,804 LVS Sep 46 Puts for $2.55 (2.4 times usual volume) with stock at $49.03

Paper bought 2,603 LYB Aug 62.5 Puts for $2.80 (2.4 times usual volume) with stock at $64.62

Paper sold 3,833 JNK Sep 40 Puts for $2.40 (4.2 times usual volume) with stock at $38.52

Paper bought 2,340 WBMD Sep 30 Calls for $1.05 (10.7 times usual volume) with stock at $25.32
Paper bought 3,700 LQD Aug 113 Calls for $0.65 (3.9 times usual volume) with stock at 111.15

F.A.Q

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Who is Andrew Keene?
 
Andrew Keene is an options trader, educator, and mentor.  Prior to founding KeeneOnTheMarket.com, Andrew spent a decade on the floor of the Chicago Board Options Exchange as an independent market maker, first with Botta Capital then with KATL Group.  His first book, Keene On The Market: Trade To Win Using Unusual Options Activity,is due to be published in July from Wiley.
 
What is KeeneOnTheMarket.com?
 
KeeneOnTheMarket.com was founded in 2011 as a mean to facilitate the 'new wave' of trading.  With the rise of online brokerages in the 1990s, anyone with computer and internet connection could execute trades in their portfolio without the assistance of a broker.  This 'new wave' of trading and affordable, easy to access liquidity led to a surge in the number of 'retail' traders (individual investors who actively trade their own accounts).
 
KeeneOnTheMarket.com is an education service and financial blog and designed to offer new wave traders the best information possible to manage risk effectively when trading. Additionally, the site serves as a community for traders around the world, removing the isolation felt by many in the profession.
 
What products or services do you offer?
 
KeeneOnTheMarket.com offers a live trading room, Twitter trade alert service, and both one-on-one and group options mentorship and education.
 
What is the live trading room?
 
The live trading room is forum where members can see Keene trade his account in real time, ask questions, and interact with other members of the room.  In the room, members are able to see charting and unusual option activity order flow.  Members will hear 4+ hours of audio as Keene discusses unusual options activity, earnings trades, trade setups, and technical analysis and market commentary.  Members may request analysis of a given stock or trade in the room, and are also entitled to a 24 hour response to email queries. This article mentions your favorite at super low prices. Choose from same-day delivery, drive-up delivery or order pickup.
 
What is 'unusual option activity' and what is 'paper'?
 
Unusual options activity is an order for an options contract exceeding the average volume for a given asset.  Tracking this activity provides traders and investors with insights into the positions of paper.  On the trading floor, brokers would carry orders from institutions from brokers into the pits. Derived from this occurrence, term paper is used to describe an order from an institution such as a hedge fund, mutual fund, bank, or a big trader.  
 
What is Premium Twitter?
 
Premium Twitter is an alert service designed active traders who may not be in front of a computer screen every day.  By following @KOTMPremium, subscribers see as Keene tweets out positions on his watch list, flags unusual options activity, and gives updates on working and filled orders.
 
Do you offer product trials and if so, how can this be arranged?
 
To arrange a trial subscription to the Live Trading Room or Premium Twitter feed, email andrew@keeneonthemarket.com or call 312-261-5581.