Considering the idea of volume, the proper answer to the aforementioned question is simply both. Mosaic theory suggests that looking at many different inputs creates a better, more informed, ‘picture’ than only sourcing from one idea or indicator.
Back on the topic of retail sales, in order to gauge the American consumer one should look introspectively first. According to the data and personal accounts, there is a solid mix of online shopping and physical shopping going on. Yahoo finance reported that the average American spent $423; up from $398 last year at this time over Thanksgiving weekend.
Over the whole weekend retail sales were estimated at $59 billion. After the weekend Computer World reported that, “The Adobe Digital Index, which tracks online spending, said that online sales totaled some $1.98 billion Monday, a 17% increase over Cyber Monday online sales last year.” Every data point should be taken in with a skeptical eye, for these holidays tend to overlap…for who is to day that online shopping is only done on Cyber Monday, because it is not. According to the data and other reports, online shopping is increasingly taking share of retail sales, but it also helps that traditional retail sales were increasing too. The best of both sectors, for these numbers seem to confirm the high valuation technology & retail stocks.
The other side of this argument is one that is rather harsh. Most traders and investors completely write of economists; they fade them. Economists get filed away with the analyst community, which is not a good place to be, for they tend to be wrong or confirm ‘group think’ in the mind of a trader. Right or wrong. The other side of the retail trade is that Americans are now more complacent, confirmed by our loose spending habits near recent highs.
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