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Morning Rage 10.10.2012

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Alcoa is down twelve cents in pre-market trading today. Dow Futures are down twenty-two and S&P futures are down three quarters of a point. Crude futures are down a quarter of a point and gold futures are up one half of a point.

Earnings movement will continue today with Costco (COST), up almost 3% in pre-market trading. Net sales in the fourth quarter were up 14% from fourth quarter of the year before, with same store sales up 5%. Profits increased by 27% from the previous quarter. Yum! Brands (YUM) announced beating third quarter estimates, up about 23% from the same period last year. The stock is higher by about 4.7%.

Economic reports today include MBA purchase application, which measures new applications at mortgage lenders. Also, US treasury budget report around 2:00pm EST, which can be a predictor of future fiscal policy. The report measures the surplus or deficit of the federal government. 

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Morning Rage 10.1.2012

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Cal-Maine Foods Inc. (CALM) is scheduled to report quarterly financial results this morning before the market opens. Cal-Main is the largest producer of shell eggs in the US. A market cap of 1.08B, the stock has seen a steady yearly growth of 50%, $0.04 below the 52 week high of $44.98. The stock was up $0.36 on Friday.

The ISM Manufacturing Index will be released today at 10 am EST. The survey measures manufacturing employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Any result above 43 shows growth in the US economy, but a shrinking manufacturing sector. Any number above 50 shows a growing manufacturing sector. Analysts are projecting a tenth of a point in growth to 49.7.

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Pregame the Harvest Moon with a Little History 9.27.2012

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Below is a series of charts that display the trading day on or before the harvest moon. The 2008 harvest moon indicated a reversal in a channel, as it came to test the lower end, bounce, and then set up for a perfect sell into a 30% decline in the S&P 500 E-mini future. The 2009 harvest moon confirmed a textbook trend-line; which from the anchor point lead to many higher lows. In 2010, it was a strong confirmation candle, overtaking the prior day’s high, into a strong trending market with little pullback. And finally the last harvest moon, in 2011, was in a consolidation pattern bottom, during the USA debt downgrade fiasco last summer, but did serve a significant low, both in line with others and at horizontal support, reversing price up and throwing it 6% higher within a few days.

It is obvious that this is a significant event in technical analysis, but it is vital to be aware with current patterns prevailing in the chart.

E-mail the author with any comments, questions, or any inquiry

mark@keeneonthemarket.com



HarvestFinal