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Natural Gas Futures Technical Update (/NG, UNG, CHK) 1.3.2013

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The channel break may indicate that lower prices are ahead. A reasonable target could to the September 26th, 2012 gap. This gap is represented in the chart below by the white oval. If one was inclined to take a trade like this, it may be advantageous to sell the UNG ETF. The futures would be an organic way to play price moving down, but the UNG fund has structural problems. The ETF underperforms the future and has a 10-day correlation of only 0.88. This could be explained by the nature of the product.

As displayed below, natural gas has a positively sloped futures curve and as the fund rolls contracts they lose money; put simply.

Feel free to e-mail any comments, feedback, suggestions, or general inquiries to…

Author

salernoma@mx.lakeforest.edu

Natural Gas Futures Update 1.3.13 Natural Gas Futures Update2 1.3.13

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Morning Rage 10.4.2012

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All index, energy, metals, and grains futures are higher today. The Dow futures are up fifty three points, S&P futures are up five and a half, and Nasdaq futures are up eleven. Crude is up a half of a point, while gold futures are up fifteen, silver is up a quarter and platinum gains thirteen. Corn bounces back up seven points.

Marriott (MAR) released its earnings after the market closed yesterday, beating the estimate of $0.40 by four cents. However, the company lowered its yearly earnings outlook. Marriott has been bolstering its lagging US revenue by focusing on overseas growth, especially in China.

Weekly jobless claims are reported today, which may be pushing futures higher this morning as well. Jobless claims are expected to grow this week up three thousand from its prior revised count of 363 thousand.

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Morning Rage 10.3.2012

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Metals are all gaining before the market opens. Gold futures are up two and three quarters, silver even, and platinum up a point and a third. Corn is down almost six points, but historically, October is a strong month for corn and soybeans. Soybeans start the morning even. 

Family Dollar Store will be announcing its quarterly earnings this monring. The stsock is already up a dollar-eighty in pre-market trading at $67.56. Although FDO has been missing earnings, the company has experiencing high growth in floor space by building new stores. 

The EIA Petroleum Status Report, which determies the price for petrolium products and reflects the supply and demand, will be released at 10:30am EST. ADP emoployment report that came out this morning beat estimates by 22,000 which could explain the push higher for futures this morning.

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Pregame the Harvest Moon with a Little History 9.27.2012

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Below is a series of charts that display the trading day on or before the harvest moon. The 2008 harvest moon indicated a reversal in a channel, as it came to test the lower end, bounce, and then set up for a perfect sell into a 30% decline in the S&P 500 E-mini future. The 2009 harvest moon confirmed a textbook trend-line; which from the anchor point lead to many higher lows. In 2010, it was a strong confirmation candle, overtaking the prior day’s high, into a strong trending market with little pullback. And finally the last harvest moon, in 2011, was in a consolidation pattern bottom, during the USA debt downgrade fiasco last summer, but did serve a significant low, both in line with others and at horizontal support, reversing price up and throwing it 6% higher within a few days.

It is obvious that this is a significant event in technical analysis, but it is vital to be aware with current patterns prevailing in the chart.

E-mail the author with any comments, questions, or any inquiry

mark@keeneonthemarket.com



HarvestFinal

 

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Market Recap 9.20.2012

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Oracle (ORCL) reported its earnings post-market after losing 1.59% on the day. Total revenues were down 2% to $8.2 billion. New software licenses and cloud software subscriptions gained around five and a half percent. Some products grew more than 100% this quarter and engineering systems sales are expected to go over $1 billion. As of 3:48pm CST Oracle is down 0.18 in after hours trading.

Crude futures are up 1.01 to 92.99 after three days of straight losses amounting to an 8 point loss. Metal futures also varied today. Gold futures are flat, silver futures slightly up, and platinum futures are down 11.50 points. Grain futures were hit hard today, with corn, soybean oil, and soybean meal down 1.35%, 2.19%, and 3.50% respectively.