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Morning Rage 9.5.2012

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Some big movers last night were The Wendy’s Company (WEN | $4.52[+0.20]), gaining almost 5% in value.  Wendy’s 52-week range moves a little more than a point from 4.16 – 5.58 and hasn’t hit a high since mid August. Dish network Corporation (DISH | $30.13 [-0.89]) fell 2.87%. DISH’s 52-week range low and high is 22.61 and 35.64 respectively. Dish has been gaining ground since the financial crisis in 2008, averaging positive gains, but is down almost 20% since 2007.

US futures are down. DOW, S&P, and NASDAQ are all down 0.21%, 0.27%, and 0.33% respectively. Metals futures are down, silver down the highest percentage at 0.68%. Crude futures are down 0.26%.

Productivity and costs reports will be released in an hour. Productivity measures the growth of labor efficiency in producing the economy’s goods and services and unit labor costs reflect the labor costs of producing each unit of output. Since the beginning of the year, non-farm labor productivity has grown at an average of 0.75% from the previous quarter and unit labor costs are up an average of 1.5%. Consensus has both levels gaining at least 1% this quarter.

Alex Kalish has a masters in economics from Suffolk University.

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September Seasonal Commodity Statistics

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Copper prices start to fall as the construction season ends and typically remain on a downtrend through December. Silver on the other hand typically starts to rally in September as demand rises. Jewelers start to buy silver in preparation for the holiday season. Also, farmers in India are known to buy precious metals after their harvest which ends through september.

This year Soybeans and grains are very strong due to drought conditions across large parts of the United States. Historically, soybeans are in a weak period during September, reaching their seasonal lows in October when the harvest is over. Corn is typically in a downtrend, although a frost scare can cause price spikes.

Meat prices, such as live cattle tend to rise as the demand for cattle rises in the Fall. Typically people eat more meat as temperatures cool off. Government programs such as school lunches also increase demand as school is back in session.

In the past 12 years, the Euro has rallied 11 times from Labor Day through the end of the month. I am not sure if this year will go with the historical trend, however a Euro rally before the election could be expected. European uncertainties may become more apparent in the next few months during the U.S. election season.

David Cornes holds a degree in economics from the University of Montana.

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