AAPL and iPad Mini Update (AAPL, QQQ) 10.22.2012

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The tech giant has been on a slide as of late, more specifically since hitting $700. Shares are off nearly $100 from the all time high. It can be hard not to get emotional considering the massive amount of money the average individual investor has allocated to AAPL.

            According to a recent study done by SigFig, “Nearly 17% of all individual investors own Apple shares.” And according to the same data, AAPL has three times the level of ownership of another widely held stock, GOOG. Interestingly enough, of the AAPL investors’ sample set, they on average have 17% of their portfolio allocated to AAPL. This is confirmed with other data, nearly 60% of the float is owned by investment managers and the top 50 investors in AAPL actually own about 43% of the company. To that point, nearly 15% of the AAPL float is allocated to index funds. And finally, the largest shareholder is Fidelity Management according to recent data. This is all very important, for it is vital to know the nature of the selling and buying done everyday, along with the corresponding personality of investors.

           The AAPL analyst community already has high expectations for the device; for example Piper Jaffray expects AAPL to capture 50% of the 7in market upon release. On the other side of the analyst community, KGI Securities analysts Ming-Chi Kuo expects the cost breakdown to be around $195 for the 16 GB wi-fi version and at the higher end up to $254.50 for the 64GB, LTE + Wi-Fi edition, then perhaps one can add into that figure the typical 40% AAPL margins they so thoroughly enjoy.

            The market leading iPad 3 is 9.7 inches; some analysts and AAPL followers are expecting a 7.85 inch liquid crystal display (LCD). These dimensions are slightly different than the prevailing 7-inch norm. The heaviest competition is expected to come from the ANZN Kindle Fire and the GOOG Nexus 7; both of which have fresh models out on the market already. The new 7” Kindle Fire is priced at $159.00. At this price point AMZN is expected to just break even considering the cost breakdown, but everything after that, including items like books and movies, is what AMZN is really in the tablet business for. AAPL is expected to naturally price at the higher end of the market.

            AAPL is currently pinned between the 100 and 150 day moving average. The average price target is about $789 and for the upcoming earnings on Thursday the current quarter’s estimate is about $8.92. Of the 39 analysts who cover the stock, 97% of them rate Apple either a “strong buy” or “buy.”

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mark@keeneonthemarket.com

Morning Rage 9.26.2012

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Dow futures are down twenty-two, S&P futures down three and a quarter, and Nasdaq futures are down nine and a quarter. Crude, metal and grain futures are all down as well. Crude futures are down a buck-seventeen, gold is down five and a half and silver is down twenty-two cents.

Yesterday was a bearish day in most sectors with most major tech and financial stocks down for the day. Google (GOOG) started the day off well, moved up to a new high, but lost all of its gains for the day and ended slightly lower. Apple (AAPL) continues to lose ground from its strong couple of weeks in early September as negative news continues to come out against the iPhone. I guess five million units sold is negative news for the iPhone 5. Delays for new units may be a problem as the riots at Foxxcon, where the iPhone and iPad are made, are investigated further.

I saw a couple of inside buys in oil companies last night in my own research which is leading me to considering a bullish trade in oil or at least keeping an eye on the price to see if it jumps upward at all in the near future.

New home sales report comes out today at 10:00am EST. Analysts expect a positive growth of 10,000 newly constructed homes with a committed sale, a gain of about 2.5%.

Alex Kalish has a master’s in economics from Suffolk U.

Look for the associate option pick of the day competition on the blog.

Email me if you would like a free trial into the KOTM Trading Room: alexk@keeneonthemarket.com

Big Week for Tech Announcements 9.4.2012

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Amazon will launch their line of new Kindles featuring a new 10 inch Kindle Fire that will have boosted specs and a bigger display.  Amazon also signed a deal with Epix today which will give Amazon Prime members access to more content. 

The weeks crowded announcement schedule should be to Apple’s advantage.  With nearly all of Apple’s major competitors introducing their new flagship devices this week, the individual visibility of these devices could be lost.  Samsung and Sony held their events last week leaving Apple standing alone next week with the announcement for the iPhone 5.  This should give Apple maximum visibility for the new iPhone and the much anticipated iPad mini. Some analysts believe that the new iPad mini could spell the death of other 7 inch tablets produced by Amazon and Google.  Shares of Apple traded up today surging off of early session lows touching a session high of 674.80. Apple l closed up around 9.10.    

However, this week will not be as kind to Google.  In a joint marketing event with Microsoft, Nokia plans on announcing two additions to its line of Lumia smartphones.  Both of these phones will feature Microsoft’s new Windows Phone 8 operating system.  Samsung announced the introduction of their new Windows Phone 8 device last week.  The Samsung announcement in particular is concerning for Google.  Samsung likely introduced the new Windows Phone 8 device in order to better position themselves against any further legal action from Apple.  With the threat of sales bans of android devices looming overhead more manufacturers could switch to operating systems other than Android.   Google shares are trading down today coming off of session lows.  The stock closed down around 4.05.

James Ramelli UIUC graduate in Finance Email: James@keeneonthemarket.com Follow: @Jim_KOTM