LinkedIn Networks With Amazon (LNKD, AMZN)? 1.28.2013

[shareaholic app="share_buttons" id="24556347"]

AMZN is the premier international online retailer. The company serves consumers through its retail websites and focuses on selection, price, and convenience. LNKD, on the other hand, is the most popular professional networking website. LNKD offers a variety of professional services for career advanement. Both companies embrace technology in order to drive growth.

LNKD and AMZN both spend a lot of their cash on reinvestment. For example, just under 60% of LNKD revenue was spent on sales/marketing and product development. This kind of investment positions the two firms to benefit in the long run.

The LNKD situation is, interestingly enough, very similar to AMZN. AMZN spends a large portion of its cash on improving its distribution centers and preparing itself to have economies of scale for the future. These two stocks have rich PE multiples and both trade in a similar fashion. This thesis can be tested. The 55-day (a Fibonacci number) price correlation between the two stocks is 0.88. This coefficient is very strong. A reading of 1.00 represents a perfect positive correlation and readings above 0.75 are generally considered strong. This figure simply quantifies the severity of relationship (positive or negative). Therefore AMZN will be a stock to watch for LNKD investors.

Spending for the long-run seems fine, however renowned economist John Maynard Keynes one said, “We are all dead in the long run.” They may be planning for the long run, but if these two companies continue to put up underwhelming EPS the market may eventually discount their massive forward and trailing PE multiple.

salerno.mark.a@gmail.com

Associate Option Battle 10.2.2012

[shareaholic app="share_buttons" id="24556347"]

Associate Jim

Trade: Buying 40 FDO Oct 60- 57.5 Put Spread for $0.25

Risk: $25 per 1 lot

Reward: $225 per 1 lot

Breakeven: $59.75

Notes: The stock has sold off hard twice in the past four quarters both after beating estimates. The stock has been rallying but I think it will test lower after earnings.

Associate Alex

Trade: Buying 4FDO strangle swap by buying the Nov 62.50 Put – 67.50 Call strangle and selling the Oct 62.50 Put – 67.50 Call strangle for a net debit of $2.45

Risk: $245 per 1 lot

Reward: Unlimited

Notes: I expect the stock to stay within the strangle till October expiration, making the strangle worthless, and then to continue the direction further into November.

Alex has a master’s in economics from Suffolk U.

Jim has B.S. in finance from University of Illinois Champaign-Urbana.