Paper bought 868 WLK April 95 Puts for $7.00 when stock was trading $90.74
Paper bought 4385 AUMN June 2.5 Puts for $.325 (6.7 times usual volume) when stock was trading $2.82
Paper bought 1852 LPX March 20 Puts for $.25 when stock was trading when stock was trading $21.80
Paper bought 1458 ATML March 7 Puts for $.25 when stock was trading $7.16
Paper bought 5086 TIBX March 20 Puts for $.20 (3.6 times usual volume) when stock was trading $22.31
Tag: options trading
Rhetoric Aside, Where Does HLF Really Go From Here? 2.19.2013
Investors continue to ask the question… where does Herbalife go from here?
Well, Icahn believes the answer to that question is up. In his most recent appearance on CNBC, Carl said, “I buy things I think are undervalued.” From this statement it’s clear that he’s banking on making money from being long HLF.
I know quite a few investors will take his word and get long HLF as well…but do the charts line up with Icahn’s current view? Lets check it out…
Going back to the lows made in early 2009, it looks like a clear five waves completed in April 2012 at $73. Since that high, there as been a strong reversal, but it was done so in a corrective fashion (three waves). This tells me one of two things… one being that we are going to see a strong reversal right here ($38-$44), to bring us down in a fifth wave completing near the $10-$15 region. The second being that we have bottomed at $24, and will now begin a stronger third wave up that could take a couple years to complete.
When looking at both of these possibilities, the most probable scenario that I see playing out is a third wave up. The MACD is portraying some nice positive divergence, and gives me more confidence that we will see higher levels before we see lower. My initial targets are the $55-$63 region for (iii) of 3 before we see a stronger consolidation in (iv) of 3. By year-end I could even see wave 3 ending up near $72-$80!
When putting counts on a stock, you always need to have stops that invalidate your current position. If the price action falls below the $30.73 that would be my first indication that we are in a fifth wave down, with $23.91 being the nail in the coffin for the bulls. Bulls do not want to see it below that level!!
In the long I am optimistic on Herbalife, and have to say that Carl Icahn might have snagged up a ‘diamond in the rough.’
Author: Peter Nitso
pnitso@yahoo.com
Twitter: @PeterNitso
AAPL's Cash Hoard 1.25.2013
Now everyone wants to know… do we see more pain in the near future, and/or what could give this monster a spark to ignite a strong rally?!
First, looking at the chart everything is looking bearish right now. The MACD is pointing straight down, the RSI is embedded in the oversold area (23.15), and the recent decline happened on huge volume. Not what you want to see if you’re a perma-bull…. and I know there are plenty of them out there! I would want to see it clear the 200MA to get me back onto the bullish side. That has been a tough obstacle for it, since it hasn’t been on the bullish side of it since October 5th.
When looking at the wave count of Apple, it seems best to label this downside action as (iii) of 5. Leaving us only with one more impulsive wave to the downside, (v) of 5. I am expecting a bounce here very soon, taking us back up to the $480 level before we begin the final sell-off.
But what could spark Apple once we hit the bottom?!
I am looking for some big news to give investors that ‘Apple love’ to jump back on board! What jumps out to me is a takeover of Twitter. Twitter, is everywhere nowadays…. ESPN, CNBC, Discovery Channel, ABC, History Channel, the list goes on and on. But there seems to be hash tags everywhere I look, and there are no signs of slowing down. They are even using hash tags to connect with students in classes here at the University of Oregon!
I know Apple is not known for buying up companies, but this setup is screaming at Apple to take action. My classrooms are filled with student’s texting/surfing the web on their iPhones. It almost seems rare to find someone with a Droid or Blackberry. Apple knows that college kids drool over its products, and I keep on coming back to teachers using Twitter as a way to communicate instantly with their students.
Cash is obviously not an issue for Apple, so that is out of the picture. It really comes down to if Apple has a need for Twitter, but from by viewpoint, it makes perfect sense!
Author: Peter Nitso
Twitter: @PeterNitso
