Unprofitable:  I lose money on this trade if AA closes above $8.57 or July 13, 2012.  The most I can lose on this trade is the amount I sold the Spread for $.57.

Risk: $43 per 1 lot

Reward: $57 per 1 lot

Chart: Bearish overall , but looking for a good risk vs reward that it tests back lower

Notes: I am playing this as an even money bet that AA will sell-off next week on earnings.

UPDATE 7.9.2012  This Spread is worth $.60, but I am leaving this trade on until earnings today after the bell.

UPDATE 7.21.2012  I covered this Spread at $.26 on the sell-off to my measured move target of $8.20.  Taking profits and moving on is how I roll.

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Unprofitable:  I lose money on this trade if RIMM closes under $9.20 or above $10.80 June 29, 2012.  The most I can lose on this trade is the amount I paid for the Spread, $.20.

Risk: $20 per 1 lot

Reward: $80 per 1 lot

Chart: Bearish overall , but looking for a good risk vs reward for a dead-cat bounce.

Notes: I am playing this using the measured move target of $.95, which means the stock should close at $8 or $10 tomorrow.

UPDATE 7.2.2012  I had the right idea, I just picked the wrong direction.  Since I knew my risk vs reward I am not upset that the stock sold off to $7.50.  At least I only lost $.20, if I was LONG the stock then I would have lost a lot more.  Moving to the next trade.

Unprofitable:  I lose money on this trade if PAYX closes above $32.50 July 20 on, 2012.  The most I can lose on this trade is the amount the Spread can be worth $1 minus the price I sold it for $.50 for a total of $.50.

Risk: $50 per 1 lot

Reward: $50 per 1 lot

Chart: Bearish overall has seen selling pressure above this level, the $32.50 level.

Notes: I am playing to the downside and I will make money on this trade if the stock goes down, flat, or up less than 1.5% on earnings.  It is currently implying a 4.4% move tonight.

UPDATE 7.2.2012  I took half of my position off on Thursday at $.10 and I was looking to take the other half off at $.05 but never got filled.  I will leave the other half of my position on until expiration.

UPDATE 7.5.2012  This Spread is still worth $.10, but I am leaving it on until expiration.

UPDATE 7.9.2012  This Spread is worth $.05 and I am looking to take it off and move to the next trade.

UPDATE 7.21.2012  Quite the rally in PAYX on expiration week, making the Spread that I sold worth $.45.  Good thing I took half off my Spread off at $.10, taking small profits and moving on.

Unprofitable:  I lose money on this trade if LEN closes above $28.39 July 20 on, 2012.  The most I can lose on this trade is the amount the Spread can be worth $1 minus the price I sold it for $.39 for a total of $.61.

Risk: $61 per 1 lot

Reward: $39 per 1 lot

Chart: Bearish overall has seen selling pressure above this  level

Notes: I am playing to the downside and I will make money on this trade if the stock goes down, flat, or up less than 8% on earnings.  It is currently implying a 11% move tonight.

UPDATE 6.27.2012  The stock is rallying, but the volatility is collapsing and the Spread is now worth $.52.  I will leave it on and hope LEN moves under the $28 level.

UPDATE 7.2.2012  This spread went rogue and is now worth $.85.  Since it can only go to $1, I am not taking it off, but I am also not looking to add to it.  Just sit and maybe LEN will sell-off until the end of July. 

UPDATE 7.5.2012  This Spread is still worth $.85, but I will leave this trade on as I think the stock market could sell-off.  I will be looking to take this trade off.

UPDATE 7.9.2012  This Spread is worth $.80 and if we continue to sell-off I will be looking to take this trade off for a small loser.

UPDATE 7.21.2012  The reason I like to sell Spreads is because I can always define my risk vs reward.  In this trade I was willing to risk $.61 and that is what I ended up losing as the Stock spiked higher.

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Unprofitable:  I lose money on this trade if APOL closes above $35.30 June 29 on, 2012.  The most I can lose on this trade is the amount the Spread can be worth $1 minus the price I sold it for $.30 for a total of $.70.

Risk: $70 per 1 lot

Reward: $30 per 1 lot

Chart: Bearish overall has seen selling pressure above this 

Notes: I am playing to the downside and I will make money on this trade if the stock goes down, flat, or up less than 8% on earnings.  It is currently implying a 11% move tonight.

UPDATE 6.26.2012  This Spread is now worth $.48, but it is all over the place.  I think APOL can sell off under the $35 level.

UPDATE 6.27.2012  This Spread and stock sold off this morning and I could have covered it for $.39, but for some reason I left it on.  I will look to take off half if the stock moves lower.

UPDATE 7.2.2012  I am glad that I did not add to this position, because this Spread went to the whole value, $1.  Moving to the next trade for earnings. 

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