The channel break may indicate that lower prices are ahead. A reasonable target could to the September 26^th, 2012 gap. This gap is represented in the chart below by the white oval. If one was inclined to take a trade like this, it may be advantageous to sell the UNG ETF. The futures would be an organic way to play price moving down, but the UNG fund has structural problems. The ETF underperforms the future and has a 10-day correlation of only 0.88. This could be explained by the nature of the product.

As displayed below, natural gas has a positively sloped futures curve and as the fund rolls contracts they lose money; put simply.

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salernoma@mx.lakeforest.edu