Goldman did an interesting report earlier today that warm weather did boost the economy in the short term. I Wonder what Goldman thinks about high gas prices and potential wage inflation?
WYNN SHARES HALTED! Wynn filed an 8-K report by mistake this morning. Wynn announced details of a second Macau Land contract (reached an agreement on a new 51-acre property.) Shares open up 7 pts or 6%. Day range of $123-$132.59. 52wk range of $101.02-$172.58. In my opinion, traders were caught short and had to cover on the open. Support level 1 looks to be around $120.4 & support level 2 $117. $125 is a critical support level for the Wynn to hold.
Heavy upside OTM call buying in names WFT and Anadarko.
By Greg Zimny
SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), Zynga, Bank of America, H & R Block & in an interview with Andrew Keene: Foot Locker
Euro is trading near session lows at the $1.321 level as Spain forecasts 24% unemployment in 2012. China reportedly was buying Gold a few days ago when a large US fund started dumping during Bernanke’s speech. Dow Jones crossed the 13,000 mark over 50 times in 3 days. Also, Bank of America cut its Q1 GDP forecast from 2.2%-1.8%. Maybe high Gasoline prices are really cramping the consumer. IMF reports that the threat of a major global slowdown has ended as macro numbers are getting better. Big Lots, CTIC, and Overstock are set to report earnings today.
Eur/USD being in a clear downtrend, the old adage of sell the rips and buy the dips comes to mind. Trying to read the charts in a more conservative fashion requireds catalysts for entry in trades. EUR/USD is setting up for a text book short possiblilty.
ADX reading 15.41 with a new high in DMI- means that the next leg down has poential to extend strongly in price and in time duration to the downside.
After a snap back rally one could have see the over bought RSI crossover a few days ago a good time to test the waters with a small short position. But having been a little off in a couple trades lately Im really trying to extert more patience and just follow my systems as they signal to me.
The next chart I labeled the clear favored wave count to me, remembering that wave 3 is most of the time the longest wave and never the shortest wave. Forex markets have a beautiful symettry to there patterns so I use a basic measured move to project the possible end of wave 5.
What will be my catalysts.
1. A break of the yellow trend line would signal a initial first position. with a stop loss being slightly above the minor high of 1.33.
2. A compounding 2nd positon would be triggered s the EURUSD breaks cloud support. I really like to see a trade setup really close to where the cloud
gets noticably thin. This tells me that it wont take much push to fall through the ice at this point. Curiously, also I have found that areas on the chart where the cloud “flips”
are sometimes very good entry zones as far as timing.
Targets: a minimum target is labeled with the blue line and 5 notation (1.22). I think the Eur/USD will find a consolidation down here considering it is a major primary support zone and if it broke this zone with conviction, parity would be the next stop.
I also wanted to update you guys on my AUD_JPY trade (which we actually used the FXA etf as a proxy)
Summary of Previous post: I saw a coil triangle pattern forming and I knew the next move out of this zone was going to be quite big.
I drew all these targets of this type of trade. a Straddle or Strangle is what I thought would be the most prudent. Turns out the calls, even though being profitable withered away from volatility decay and the puts wont perform until the trend reverses. But my analysis was accurate we just should have been outright long instead of using options. Since we are nearing the inital upside target on this trade I expect to see a minor reversal within the next month.
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However, with the unpleasantries out of the way, there seems to be nothing stopping this market and I don’t see that changing in the near future. I think we are on a march towards 1500.
I hate to call it a prediction rather it’s more of a gut feeling. The bears continue to give all the reasons why we are too high but none of that really seems to matter right now. The market just wants to go up.
It really wouldn’t surprise me to see the S&P take out its all time closing high of around 1565 that was set back in October of 2007. That’s not to say we don’t have some pullbacks along the way or maybe some consolidation periods but it’s beginning to look more and more like this is where we are heading.
If this seems like a stretch just realize that from the current 1370’s level it would only take about a 15% move to get us there. That kind of move isn’t unreasonable especially if the economic news continues to surprise.
There are a lot of things out there for us to be wary of including Iran, a still high unemployment rate, an election, and high food/energy prices. But at this moment in time you can find ways to discount all of these. Iran has been and always will be a saber rattler. Nothing is new here. Unemployment is high but it seems to be trending downwards. Oil is a concern but all we have to do is formulate a discussion on natural gas or a release from the SPR and we can see oil come down. And as far as the election goes, does it really matter which of these clowns is in charge? We will most likely have a gridlocked government and another four years of more of the same.
As long as all the economic data points continue to remain mostly positive, the general consensus will continue to be that based on these numbers the market is undervalued and at the worst fairly valued. This makes taking out 1500 a reality and taking out the all time highs well within reach.
I’ve been cautious and have held at least 30% in cash during this rally. I will continue to do so but I’m feeling more comfortable owning stocks through all of this. I definitely think there are darker days ahead for the markets and the economy, just not right now.
Other names such as Melco-Crown Entertainment (MPEL) and MGM Resorts (MGM) have been showing strength as well. I blew out of my position at $122.94 and booked 2.9 points. If WYNN can break through $124, it looks like it will be a straight shot to $128. One thing that is important to note is that manufacturing in the US declined. The numbers showed that manufacturing slid from 52.4 to 54.1 in January. Higher crude oil prices could have something to do with this as consumers could be cutting back from buying goods and services. The SPY sold off on this news, but quickly recovered. When markets go higher on bad news, it is very important to take note. Monster Worldwide had quite the epic run this morning. Andrew pointed this out earlier when a buyer came in and bought 2770 March 8 calls for .10. The stock exploded from a morning gap of $7 all the way to $8.58. $8.58 was a clear short term blow of top as the stock failed to break through $8.60 on the heaviest volume of the day. The move to the high $8.50’s also filled the gap made on 1/24/12 and 1/25/12. Spot Crude rose higher day due to continued speculation over turmoil in Europe. Spot crude closed up 2% to $109.23.
I had my order lined up to short MWW at $8.57 with a stop at $8.60. I just wanted to nibble because I was aware that the stock could have seen much higher prices if it took out $8.60. But I didn’t pull the trigger or chase it when it was clear that sellers were in the name. My first target to cover was $7.90 which was .10 away from the initial second intraday break out of $7.80. You win some and you lose some, but transparency is the key. The only stock I traded today was WYNN and now I want to throw my computer out the window sitting in computer programming class. Have a good afternoon everyone. Go Ducks.
The Big Boys
AAPL +2.06 (0.36%)
CMG +4.43 (1.10%)
GOOG +4.15 (0.67%)
AMZN +0.43 (0.23%)
CVX +0.55 (0.51%)
GE +0.07 (0.29%)
IBM +0.80 (0.42%)
MSFT +0.55 (1.72%)
WMT -0.26 (-0.44%)
XOM +0.31 (0.34%)
Pretty quiet day for leaders over $200 billion in market cap except for Microsoft. An analyst from Nomura Equity Research reiterated a buy recommendation with a $37 price target. Microsoft under $25 is a no brainer if the shares every trade back there.
Written by Cameron Patrick
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Tomorrow in macro events, Canada GDP (Q4) we expect 2% in Q3. Also, the EU summit is ending.
Target and Macy’s report better than expected sales gains for the month of February. With gas prices rising, will consumers continue to spur growth?
Steve Wozniak predicts Apple to “potentially” hit $1000..!!
By: Greg Zimny