Paper bought 600 HAS March 40 Puts for $.70 when stock was trading $40.17 Paper bought 600 ECL April 75 Puts for $1.10 (4.7 times usual volume) when stock was trading $77.10 Paper bought 400 AIRM April 41 Puts for $1.275 (15.1 times usualvolume) when stock was trading $44.45 Paper bought 600 KSU April 105 Puts for $5.10 (2.8 times usual volume) when stock was trading $103.81 Paper bought 181 THRX March 20 Puts for $2.10 (2.5 times usual volume) when stock was trading $20.15
Paper bought 37,402 AMTD Aug 23 Calls for $.25 (18.5 times usual volume) when stock was trading $19.09 Paper sold 5993 JCP Jan 2014 8 Puts for $.60 (3.6 times usual volume) when stock was trading $16.75 Paper bought 1735 MCP Jan 5 Puts for $1.80 (2.9 times usual volume) when stock was trading $1.80 Paper bought 10830 TXN Jan 35 Calls for $2.70 (3.6 times usual volume) when stock was trading $34.48 Paper sold 5000 MTG March 2.5 Puts for $.10 (7.2 times usual volume) when stock was trading $2.75
Paper bought 1400 TOO March 27 Puts for $.55 (6.0 times usual volume) when stock was trading $27.43 Paper bought 1300 TIBX March 21 Puts for $.50 when stock was trading $21.69 Paper sold 10,000 FLO March 25 Puts for $.15 (12.9 times usual volume) when stock was trading $28.61 Paper sold 4296 AUXL Sep 12.5 Puts for $.65 (15.7 times usual volume) when stock was trading $16.86 Paper sold 950 SKUL June 6 Puts for $.85 when stock was trading $6.16
The chart above estimates the iPad mini cannibalization scenarios from a conservative 50%, to an aggressive 70%. The cannibalization of sales could be bad news for AAPL.
According to recent data provided by ABI Research, AAPL still has a majority share of the tablet market with a 55% unit shipment. While still boasting the majority share of the tablet market, AAPL is constantly under pressure from competitors over the control of the tablet market and gave up 14% of its share this quarter, according to ABI Research.
Despite the concern of cannibalizing sales, AAPL launched the iPad mini in an effort to compete with the smaller tablets offered by ANZN and GOOG. AAPL is depending on the success of the iPad mini to gain an edge in the smaller tablet market. Apple stated that it sold 3 million tablets during the iPad mini’s debut weekend. AAPL, however, has yet to release the sales statistics for the new iPad mini.
Munster, who initially estimated that 1 to 1.5 million iPad minis were sold, now estimates 2 to 2.5 million iPad minis were sold during the official weekend launch. Mark Moskowitz, an analyst with J.P.Morgan, also believed that a majority of the sales were attributed to the iPad mini. With a starting price of $329 dollars, the iPad mini will attract the attention of potential consumers who are set on spending less while still obtaining an AAPL product. AAPL will continue to expand into the tablet market as a means to stimulate growth and regain lost share value. AAPL is down from a September high of $702.10.
By the end of this year, Anacor plans to announce data from the phase two safety, pharmacokinetics, and efficacy study related to AN2728. AN2728 is a topical anti-inflammatory product candidate for the treatment of dermatitis and psoriasis in adolescents. The company expects to initiate phase two trials in children ages 2-11 shortly after the announcement of these results.
Dependent on positive phase two trials, the company expects to initiate a phase three trial in atopic dermatitis in mid-2013.
Also during the third quarter conference call, Anacor referred to its cash position and spoke about the offering of stock I wrote about earlier. The company believes that its existing cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments totaling approximately $36.6 million as of September 30, 2012 and the net proceeds of approximately $22.7 million from the October 2012 sale of 4,000,000 shares of the company’s common stock will be sufficient to meet its anticipated operating requirements until it files its NDA for Tavaborole in Onychomycosis. This is currently expected to occur in the middle of next year. If necessary, the company would make appropriate adjustments to its spending plan in order to ensure sufficient capital resources to complete this filing.
From the chart above, Anac has begun to trade upwards in advanced of the catalyst events mentioned here. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is turning bullish again and volume is also picking up. The MACD Histogram also indicates this. During the recent run, we can see higher highs and high lows displayed. It’s my opinion a short term price target of $6 is on the horizon.
Avg Vol (3 month):
Avg Vol (10 day):
% Held by Insiders:
% Held by Institutions:
Shares Sold Short:
Short Positions (10/31/2012) 431,065 Shares
Change from Last -13.04%
Percent of Float 2.06%
Anac’s current price is $5.40 a share with a market cap of $192.07M.
The stock should see a move to around $6 soon. Depending on stock market conditions next year and positive results for Anac’s trials, a stock price over $10 a share is not out of the question.
While the market, as measured by index products, was clearly bearish, some individual equities had counter trend moves. A general rule of thumb is that 80% of stocks move with the index, but depending on your sample set…this could vary. We chose to look at various major online retailers. The obvious include AMZN, EBAY, and AAPL. The subtle plays like SPLS and WMT are not as well known. SPLS, for example, had over 10 billion dollars in online sales in 2011, growth of nearly 4% in that area, and is raked second overall in total online sales…AMZN naturally being first.
Away from the fundamentals for a moment, for the statistics were interesting too. The average return is self-explanatory, but the R-squared is a statistical tool used to measure the degree of correlation between two items. Correlation analysis allows investors to make predictions about an asset by looking at how it reacts with other market variables. Specifically, the R^2 number, is used as a metric to measure how well outcomes can be predicted. Zero being weak and 1 being extremely strong. This can be valuable if one was doing a pair trade. The data suggests one should sell SPLS and buy AMZN for the best average result, however the R-squared was strong for both of these stocks.
AAPL again outperformed the SPX and NDX; this was similarly observed during the Black Friday exercise…link below.