AAPL Range Analysis: Technicals and News Update 11.19.2012

The pullback, since hitting $700, has lasted 39 trading days, more than any other pullback of late. The length of time the bears have been in control is unusual by AAPL standards, but also the range is unusual. The average range of this pullback is $15.67. Traders on Friday saw a massive range. As indicated before, AAPL had a range (high to low) of $24.25 or 4.59%. This is outside 1.5 standard deviations of the mean. Meaning that 83.6% of the observations were below this. In addition to this, the volume on Friday was massive. 43 million shares traded hands. The last time AAPL traded that much volume was on 3/13/12’s ‘gap and go.’ While these are interesting quantitative observations, qualitative observations are important too in stock analysis.

Given the unusual nature of Friday’s action, a short-term bottom could have been built. Volume may indicate a ‘wash out’ and the price action could be confirming given the massive hanging man. The other side of this trade is clear however. AAPL has dominated for a long time now. They were formerly the underdog, but now they are the firm to beat.

A massive trend line connecting AAPL’s bottom to the flash crash low and finally touching the 6/20/11 bottom, sits only $50 away from Friday’s low. Given the $20 at the money weekly straddle, this is not out of the question in the short term if the market takes a dive.

In related news AAPL is expected to produce a slick flat screen LCD or LED HDTV by next year. Perhaps one can expect it to look similar to the new iMac given that skinny design.

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MarkAAPL